星期日, 8月 12, 2007

The myth of the rational voter


被譽為10年來寫得最好的公共選擇理論著作,作者開宗明義便認為選民非理性,尤其在面對經濟議題方面,更充斥著偏見,因此透過民主程序往往得出壞政策,如果把選民看作消費者般理性便大錯特錯,所以傳統經濟學這種天真的想法遲早要改轅易轍。

好像貿易政策,普羅大眾往往無視經濟學的已有共識,情傾保護主義,這不是一小撮既得利益者與政客的操作,而是得到眾多民調所証實:保護主義真的得到廣泛的民意支持。同時,大多數人贊成引入最低工資,反對放寬移民的想法,同樣與經濟學的主流意見相左。

作者透過研究大量民調及統計,發現市民與經濟學家的思想鴻溝相當之大,而這絕非因為經濟學家較高的社會地位、收入、工作穩定性(較高收入及社會地位可能傾向保護建制)可以解釋。假定這些專家正確的機會比一般人高的話,則這樣的選民只會選擇出錯誤的政策。

對於有理論指群眾的錯誤可以互相抵銷,因而醒目的選民最終會主導投票結果,但作者認為這只有當群眾的錯誤是隨機的才能成立,但問題是選民對經濟事務的偏見是系統性的,故此錯誤不能互相抵銷。他列出4種觀點上的偏差:1)反市場:選民對市場有較大疑慮;2)反外國:低估與外國合作的好處;3)職位偏愛:認為任何職位的增加都是好的,殊不知有時職位的消失才是經濟富強之道,因為生產力的上升會令某種貨品需要越來越少的人力,好像過去9成人要務農為生,但農夫的職位已大量消失,經濟從沒有因此而萎縮。4)悲觀傾向:總以為當前的經濟問題很嚴重。

選民的非理性,還很多時反映在他們投票時絕非從一己利益出發,而是從大局考慮,選出自以為對整體社會最好的方案。作者認為這種「我為人人」的自我陶醉想法,令選民飄飄然,也因而無視其本身政策可能導致惡果,尤其是當惡果無法影響選民修正其決定。這是因為,選民的一票對大局的影響可有可無,很少是決定性的一票,故此即使投錯,也未必對大局有影響,倒不如隨心之所欲。二來,壞政策的影響由全部人來承受,損失被攤分開來,選民遠不如消費者買錯劣質電器或買錯樓般有切膚之痛。

作者認為,既然選民在經濟事務上像不懂事的小孩,那政客便可以像父母般對其欺欺哄哄,在口頭上唯唯諾諾,但實際執行上卻陽奉陰違,甚至可以借公務員過蹺,以避免執行選民認可但會拖累經濟的政策,因為選民不會承認這樣的結果是基於他們的選擇,最終取悅選民的政客要成為代罪羔羊。

既然選民非理性,那用民主程序來決定經濟政策便有問題,故此作者認為,要給市場機制及司法制度多一點空間,讓這些渠道來處理經濟的問題。同時,要提升教育,因為民調證明,教育程度較高的人偏差較少。

作者的立論其實相當大膽,也有點挑戰「民主大哂」的意味,但其一個主要的訊息,就是利用大量政治學的研究成果,要傳統經濟學重新檢視其選民理性的前提是否還適用。

以本書的題目之大,但篇幅僅約200頁,故此頗有意猶未盡的感覺,而中段的論據推進較快,可能要重看才能摸清其想法。獨括而言,這本書有很多新穎的觀點,儘管你未必同意,但衝擊一下思想總有助斟酌損益。

星期五, 8月 03, 2007

The Cloudspotter's Guide



Who knows how heavy is cloud? Typically more than 80 elephants! What if you fall into cumulonimbus (the sort of cloud formed before downpour), it may take you 40 minutes to reach the ground if your parachute is opened.
A lovely book on cloud appreciation, which is freely available to everyone as long as you raise your head. The author is really passionate on this subject and organised the materials in such a way that strikes a balance between entertaining and knowledge. Lot of beautiful photos and interesting antidotes.

Cold War


A really concise introduction of that piece of history. not in chronological order but each chapter come with a theme like how it started, nuclear arm race, how small countries survived and even exploited these....etc. Not easy to follow if you have no clue at all of what happened during those days. Instead it gives you the framework to see what forces were shaping the events. It revealed political leaders sometimes may act insanely yet rationally under imperfect information and ideological trap.

A History of Jews


When 700,000 Jews were sent to gas chamber in Poland, "Boston Globe gave it the headline 'Mass Murders of Jews in Poland Pass 700,000 Mark' but buried the story on page 12. The New York Times called it 'probably the greatest mass slaughter in history' but gave it only two inches."
Make no mistake, the Holocaust was not a masterpiece of the notorious Hitler alone. Anti-Semitism is a global phenomenon. How come Jews were hated by the whole world to such an extent that no one care about their life anymore? Historian Paul Johnson traced the history of Jews all the way to Bible till now.
I just read the last 2 chapters, which started with the World War II and the establishment of Israel. Though the author seems to have a more sympathetic view towards Jews, it didn't tarnish the elegantly-put arguments.
Bought the book in Krakow, Poland, at which the largest concentration camps in WWII located. You can't help to ponder on the whole tragedy.

The Book of General Ignorance


A BBC programme turned into a book. It tells you many of the common sense you got from hearsay are actually wrong. Magellan was not the first man to circumnavigate the globe, Mount Everest isn't the tallest mountain, Alexander Bell didn't invent the phone.......
It always arouse my curiosity as to how flawed facts or beliefs can take root and become common sense. However, this book won't give you any answer of this. Anyway, the book is really entertaining.

星期四, 8月 02, 2007

The Next Great Globalization


在次按風暴一波未平的此際,讀經濟學家Frederic Mishkin這本講金融全球化的書可說相當應景.Mishkin是貨幣政策研究的權威,他的教科書幾乎是必讀之作,曾任聯儲局的經濟師,與現任局長白南克合著關於通貨膨脹目標制的學術著作,曾獲委託檢討IMF的內部機制,故此他的江湖地位毋庸置疑,你會在書中多次看到他公然與幾名經濟大師Joseph Stiglitz,Paul Krugman, Jeffrey Sachs大唱對台戲.

作者認為金融全球化是全球化的2.0版本,是貿易自由化後經濟發展的另一階段,搞得好則經濟會有第2春,追上大國水平的機會極高,可是金融全球化卻陷阱處處.原因不在於全球化本身,而是既得利益者會令到全球化進程不倫不類四不象,例如開放銀行業予外資但又限制競爭,規則配套追不上,好像法律保障私產不足,而清盤程序障礙重重,結果是未見其利先見其害,釀成不少金融危機.

作者對金融全球化的現實面深切體會,對既得利益者的政治實力更不存幻想.他舉美國80年代的儲蓄貸款機構危機為例,當時的監管機構看出一家大的金融機構財政出了問題,意圖介入,但老闆聘請了77家律師行度橋阻撓,更聘請了格蘭斯潘(當時仍未為聯儲局局長)為其說盡好話,兼捐出130萬美元予5大參議員為其保駕護航,結果負責調查的頭頭要掛冠而去,調查機構被cut經費.該金融機構最後依然以清盤收場,並要納稅人出資20億美元拯救,而整場儲蓄貸款風暴則要納稅人花1500億美元結帳.連美國要金融改革也政治阻力重重,何況新興市場!

盡管如此,作者仍認為不要因噎廢食,開放金融市場依然好處多多,但要一步步來,要配套跟得上,要讓監管機構有權力.作者認為市場不是萬能,因為訊息不對稱,會常常出現「公我贏,字你輸」的情況,所以監管者要確保資訊流通,亦要懲罰發放假資訊者.近期的次按危機只是另一場「無皇管」觸發的風波.

本書對象為一般讀者,故此行筆淺白,甚至有點過份不厭其煩,解完又解,但對於金融危機有興趣的讀者,這是一本不可多得的作品.

Everything Bad is Good for You


當個個話打機無益,但有研究卻指打機刺激思考,有助手眼協調,改 善社交同自信,越來越多人用打機來醫病...當人人指睇電視嘥時間,卻有人反駁電視劇劇情複雜知識含量高互動 性強,實況電視(reality TV)更加促進EQ同IQ.作者以從小就迷上打機的過來人經驗,加上社會學的一些研究,力証 這些所謂「無益」的大眾文化,其實都唔知幾有益身心,你係度反對 只是食古不化,與時代脫節,與過去反對看小說、聽流行曲的人同樣 會絕種.信不信由你,但作者用”睡眠者曲線”及人際關係圖來分析電視劇< 24>及<Sopranos>,玩到咁刁鑽,真係唔buy佢套野 都不妨睇下.

House Prices and the Macroeconomy

美國次按問題搞到滿城風雨,再一次凸顯樓市對經濟的深遠影響,雖 然這個是阿媽係女人的經濟課題,但其實即使大學教科書,都無一個 model係講樓市點樣影響經濟,所以香港聯繫匯率設計師Cha rles Goodhart呢本書可說是填補這一片空白,至少對我而言適用.

本書全面探討樓市對經濟的影響,重點包括:

-樓價市的財富效應其實有正有負,對業主固然好,但交租的面臨加 租便會有負財富效應,故整體是好是壞視乎業主多定租戶多.好像德 國人的置業率低,樓價升便未必刺激到消費.

-樓市與借貸市場的良性互動:樓價升代表抵押品的價值上升,銀行 願意借出更多,同時銀行的資產組合以市價計亦雄厚左,自然可以放 更多數.銀行借錢鬆手,又會刺激樓價啟動循環.不過,在樓市下跌 時,良性循環又會變成互相拖累的惡性循環.

-金融業的開放總伴隨著信貸過度擴張,資產泡沫以及其後的爆破, 過去美國歐洲甚至亞洲均無一倖免.未來的中國及印度,將要面對這 一挑戰.

-監管的趨勢令到樓市及經濟更波動:新巴塞爾協定及國際會計準則 都向市價入帳過渡,結果銀行可能在好市時過度借貸在淡市時大舉收 縮,以保持法定的資本充足比率,因為若以市價來計算風險,好市時 總比淡市時低,但當間間銀行這樣做時,銀行體系的風險及穩健性便 有影響,連帶對樓價及經濟不利.

-央行面對的挑戰:應否把樓價變動納入通脹指數,再以息口來一併 調控消費通脹及資產價格通脹,抑或另外設定一個機制,要求銀行在 樓價上升時保留更多的資本,在樓價下跌時釋放這些資本(即資本充 足比率要與樓價掛鈎),以減少對經濟的影響.作者的選擇是後者, 但佢認為依家無人會聽佢講,直至Basel 2行得幾年出左事,才有人會認真看待佢既意見.

作者在這些議題上做了大量原創性研究,故此提出了不少洞見,他尤 其擔心在持續低通脹下,資產價格的日益波動反而被忽視了,而監管 機構更加朝向助長這些波動的方向進發,金融系統的穩定性難免被削 弱.作者的憂慮,在次按問題曝光,及私人資本基金借貸無度的當下 ,特別發人深省.

可惜的是,本書為學術專著,故此包含大量數據分析,對沒有經濟計 量學底子的讀者會相當吃力,希望作者日後能出版一本較為平易近人 的版本吧.

再造魅力故鄉


與保育皇后碼頭事件何其相似!70年代,日本小樽市政府有意把該 市的運河填埋建成馬路,以一併解決發展需要及運河長期淤塞造成惡 臭的問題.一場民間發起的保衛小樽運河運動隨即展開.開始時行政 機關反應冷淡,公路興建的工程規劃仍然繼續.

民間組織未有氣餒,1983年的簽名運動,獲得全市18萬人口逾 一半人的簽名,才足以暫緩填埋運河一事,才能叫行政機關坐到談判 桌上.

與市政府的角力只是其中一招,期間民間組織發起多項活動喚起大眾 關注,包括發起小樽港都慶典,在運河周圍發起座談會甚至相聲活動 ,上演紙畫劇場<小貓最喜歡運河>,舉辨重新認識小樽市的研究講 座,運河清掃活動,義賣等等.

活動更得到專業人士的參與,向政府提出了一套運河及交通計劃得以 兩全的方法.

這場保育運動的結果是,政府企硬照起公路,運河則由原來40米收 窄至現時的19米,畢竟較爭取之前的計劃好得多,而且還取得政府 首肯加建沿河的散步道,擺放60箋煤氣燈,變成現今的面貎.雖然 保育人士宣告運動失敗,但新運河在電影<情書>中綻放魅力,成為 北海道的超級景點,出乎意料地為這個夕陽都市注入新的經濟動力.

這個只是書中17個保育或傳統社區重生故事中的一個,保育行動幾 乎都是由民間發起的,過程總不順利,與官僚的關係亦緊張,但書中 所描述的,除了是一場場公民抗爭,更多的是一批發起人對一磗一瓦 及傳統社區的熱愛,這份熱愛加上他們對傳統文物的研究,令他們總 能發掘到一個傳統建築的優點,並成功推銷開去,令群眾運動的層面 得以擴大,成為與政府談判的籌碼,而且能夠兼演problem solver的角色,紓緩對立的張力,建立良性及建設性的對話.

本書的可觀之處正在於此,加上每篇均附上不少插圖、地圖甚至搞手 的相片,對未去個該地方的讀者幫助很大,如果不嫌部份篇幅略為流 水帳的話,可讀性相當不俗.

星期六, 9月 23, 2006

CICIR "ThinkTank" series


Thinktanks with overseas funding and support have been closed down one by one since 2003. In contrast, "中国现代国际关系研究院" (www.cicir.ac.cn), a thinktank with party's blessing and possibly strong funding support, have grown rapidly.

CICIR claimed their target is becoming RAND of China. Recently, I bought several reference book published by CICIR. I found it pretty useful.

CICIR published a series of books on "ThinkTank" (photo) -- US, Europe and Russia.

Each of this introduce the role of thinktanks in respective political system. The book provide a "folder" style introduction to each of the major thinktank. CICIR comment and provide information on (a) the background (funding & history) of each thinktanks, (b) who is the key china experts and their attitude toward China.

The books are good source of background information for searching information from thinktank universe.

Looking forward to their "Japan Thinktank" which will be published in 2006.

星期三, 4月 19, 2006

Mathematics all around by Tom Pirnot


很少看一本數學教科書看得這樣過癮,但這本確實寫得有趣非常.與一般教科書的循規蹈矩不同,本書橫跨多個數學範疇,由邏輯、集合、概率、圖論到矩陣無一不包,但不要給它嚇怕,它並非一本充滿公式的書,反而是一本以應用為本的書.因此,它會有一章專講議會議席的分配,早期美國眾議院分配議席的一個矛盾,以及為何沒有一種方法能達致公平,一章講投票的不同方式,以及為何沒有完美的選舉能真正反映集體意願.一章用矩陣講電腦動畫的原理,一章講圖論如何用於追尋病毒的源頭,以及如何決定一項繁雜工程的最短完工時間.

不是有板有眼,沒有大量基本公式,而是用例子來帶出理論,勾起你興趣後,你自自然然會找相關工具書進修,奇就奇在它涉獵雖廣,但條理清晰,好像講混沌理論的基石-碎型(Fractals),雖只有三言兩語,卻是我所見過的最清楚解釋,竟比看混沌宗師Benoit Mandelbrot夫子自道的The Misbehaviour of Markets更加易明,作者文筆的功力及取材的大膽可見一班.

部頭好似很大,因為近一千頁,但其實不少是習作,要看完不用花太多時間,大陸版更抵到無倫,英文版要過百美元,瞓身推薦.

星期日, 2月 26, 2006

基督教的興起 一個社會學家對歷史的再思


早期基督教其實是如何由12個人開始,在短短300年間激增至3400萬,佔去當時羅馬帝國6成人口?在信徒眼中,這一切當然是神的作為在其中.可是在一個社會學家眼中,卻可能與兩場大瘟疫,及早期教會對女性地位的肯定有關.

<基督教的興起>的作者Rodney Stark,是美國的社會學教授,卻對早期教會為何好生興旺深感好奇,做了大量研究,並試圖用社會學及經濟學的理論來解釋早期教會的獨到之處,內中確有大膽假設之處,但都不是無的放矢,是結合歷史及考古印証的成果.

作者其中一個著眼點,是早期教會的成員組合,與不少人的印象不同,作者並不認為早期教會主要吸納低下階層及外邦人.他認為,最為早期教會所吸引的,往往是教育程度較高的中上階層,以及深受希臘文化影響的猶太人.

作者認為,教育程度較高的人最願意接受新信仰,他們較容易摒棄變得僵化的傳統宗教,接受一些新的思維.再者,有證據顯示,當時不少權貴也歸信基督教,故此儘管對早期基督徒的鎮壓,有時是頗激烈的,但大部份時間羅馬政府卻相當寬容,採取對基督教不聞不問的態度,這讓早期教會有休養生息的機會.

至於居於外邦的猶太人才是教會增長動力的論點,作者認為,這批人對舊約熟悉,特別容易接受與猶太教一脈相承的基督教,好像使徒保羅及司提反便是箇中表表者,另一方面,受外邦文化影響的猶太人,頗受自命謹守律法傳統、居於耶路撒冷的猶太教徒所不齒,這種被歧視的感覺,反而令他們對打著改革猶太教旗號的基督教信仰易生共鳴.

另一股早期教會意想不到的增長動力,卻是分別發生於公元165年及251年的兩次大瘟疫,羅馬帝國大量人口在這兩場瘟疫中死亡,但當時的基督徒本著愛人如己的精神,視死如歸地照顧及守望基督徒與非基督徒病患者,結果令得病的人不致因為失救而死去,此舉不但令基督徒群體的死亡機會減低,而且締造了路人皆見的美好見証,在瘟疫過後的社會秩序重建過程中,基督教頓成為人心所向的新力量.

此外,作者認為基督教對女性地位相對上較尊重,這反映在對離婚的平等處理,與及容許女性出任執事等要務上,較重視女性令女信眾的比例較異教高,估計因與教外人通婚而轉化其另一半歸信的個案更不計其數.再者,基督教對當時盛行的墮胎及殺嬰行為十分反對,故此基督徒的出生率較當時人口萎縮的趨勢背道而馳.在此消彼長下,基督徒的數目越來越顯著.

筆者雖是教徒,但鮮有介紹本身信仰的書藉,其實當中有不少佳作,都有擴闊視野觸動人心的能耐,今次先以這本「世俗化」的基督教研究作頭盤吧.

星期六, 1月 28, 2006

无极搞笑版 《一个馒头引发的血案》

An interesting short film have nothing to do with book ... very popular on China internet.


http://media.chinabroadcast.cn/chi/net_radio/entertainment/el060106001.wmv


《一個饅頭引發的血案》:年度最紅名詞誕生記

新華網 ( 2006-01-13 09:55:54 )
來源: 國際先驅導報

當年趙本山讓“馬甲”成了網路別名的代稱,今年,一個饅頭所引發的一場萬眾矚目的血案,使得“饅頭”成為了年終網路關注的焦點當年,趙本山一句“脫了馬甲照樣認識你”讓“馬甲”二字成為特定稱謂,作為當年的最紅名詞火了一整年,甚至直到如今還是網路別名的代稱;而如今,在網路江湖中,網友們盛傳著的今年的最火名詞無疑將是“饅頭”。

《無極》剛剛“轟轟烈烈”地在全國公映時,就有看完此片的網友在網上發貼稱:“這個《無極》不如改名叫‘饅頭’吧,所有情節居然是由一個饅頭引出的。”此話一出,眾人紛紛跟帖,表示贊同。估計大家是有料事如神的本領,當時就預感到了“饅頭”將要走紅——這不,新年過了才沒幾天,一個名為《一個饅頭引發的血案》的網路視頻短片就在網路上迅速火爆。

該短片以《無極》為藍本,極盡搞笑之能事。短片的作者署名為“胡戈製作”,大概20分鐘左右,基本上都是剪輯《無極》的電影片段重新編輯而成,畫面製作還算精良,人物配音都模仿片中人的口氣,難得的是,配音者連普通話都說得很不錯,看得出“制片人”花了不少心思。

目前在GOOGLE上進行精確搜索“一個饅頭引發的血案”能夠搜出近萬條記錄——要知道這可是長達九個字的超級精確搜索啊!從搜索結果來看,大部分網路社區和論壇都轉載過這個短片,甚至很多博客也對此片紛紛轉載,我也曾在QQ上接到消息,是網友發來的此片的地址鏈結,這些都充分說明瞭網友對此片的熱愛之情。

這個短片在開始前首先打出字幕“以下看到的東西純屬本人自娛自樂,內容純屬虛構,全是瞎編亂造的”的字樣,然後套用央視品牌欄目《法制在線》節目的形式展開整個故事。整個短片圖文並茂,配樂也搭配得恰到好處,其中到處是精彩之筆——比如深受眾人追捧的“張傾城作為圓環套圓環娛樂城名模,每天工作就是不斷地穿衣服和脫衣服”一段,一邊配上張柏芝在《無極》中迅速穿衣脫衣、穿衣再脫衣的畫面,一邊配上楊鈺瑩的《茶山情歌》,令人噴飯。還有被網友譽為最經典的“張昆侖自首”“張昆侖與郎隊長的同性戀情”“滿神牌喱水廣告”等片段,都令人爆笑到肚痛。

就在大家笑到一片燦爛不亦樂乎的時候,竟然有好事者去諮詢律師此種改編行為是否合法,於是,就有很不解風情的資深律師聲稱該短片侵犯了《無極》的作品完整權。於是,短片的作者胡戈發佈了一個聲明,稱自己“做這個東西純粹是為了個人自娛自樂,同時也是為了練習視頻處理技術……我並沒有四處傳播這個作品。只是由於網友們的相互傳遞,這個作品才慢慢流傳開來……現在網上四處流傳這個東西,這種現象並非是本人的初衷。我的網站的論壇原本是設計成給極少數視頻編輯愛好者進行技術交流的,現在竟然變成了‘饅頭’愛好者的天地。”

這個小小的插曲並沒有打消“饅頭粉”們的積極性,該短片依然從一個QQ流傳到另一個QQ,繼續在網路世界裏迅速躥紅,同時也把“饅頭”二字炒熱了。就在剛才,還有網友發帖子,義正詞嚴地在宣佈:眾所周知,最近有一部電影叫《無極》,遭到大家的口誅筆伐,當然這跟咱饅頭沒關係,但後來,居然有無聊群眾把電影斷章取義地演繹成《一個饅頭引發的血案》,這是對我們饅頭聲譽的嚴重誣衊,是對饅頭家族內部事務的粗暴干涉,我代表饅頭提出強烈抗議——我們饅頭並非引起謝無歡同學人性扭曲的根源,陳滿神女士利用饅頭引誘張傾城小姐的做法是極端無恥的行為,謝無歡同學珍藏的饅頭已經明顯過了保質期……我們饅頭保留採取進一步行動的權利!看來,本年度,饅頭想不紅都不行了……

星期五, 12月 23, 2005

Confessions of Economic Hitman


花了幾天看完了的感覺,是外界好像過譽了這本書.這本以揭發美國如何官商勾結,去把第3世界變成美國的附庸國的暢銷書,在美國國際聲望低落兼WTO剛開完會的當下,確實一度令我引頸以待.
作者作為參與者的夫子自道,事實增加了本書的吸引力,可是他提的例子,其實語言學大師兼反美頭號知識份子noam chomsky,早在幾本書內狂鬧過,這書唯一的特點,是他自己是過來人,是幫凶,但講他良心發現的篇幅實在太多,佢一次次講自己因為錢而再埋沒良心,又要靠一個又一個的情人點醒,直到911才下定決心出版此書,雖說是題材敏感有一定危險性,但佢經歷的冷戰時代已過了十多年,總覺得這本書也有點將過氣題材標尾會最後括番筆之嫌疑,抹不去這點假惺惺的感覺.
這本書的最大貢獻,是描寫美國是如何官商勾結,去虐待第三世界,不過作者只是一家工程公司的經濟師,所以若你以為會看到很多黑幕的話,恐怕你會失望.同時,情節又實在太似小說,太多幾十年前的對話,若作者沒有寫日記的習慣,很難想像會有這樣好的記憶.
再者,書中末段講較近期的事件,作者已沒有參與其中,只能以旁觀者或業界的身份來評論,但正如作者所講,他是一個只懂經濟一鱗半爪,而對數學統計絕非專家的「首席經濟師」,所以其觀點未見有獨到之處,所以到書末的內容已跌volt.
總括來講,這本書的題材在很多書已出現過,這本只是多了一點揭密味道而已,有興趣的看也無妨,但不算佳作.

星期四, 12月 15, 2005

Don't trust medical research without scrutiny

天下烏鴉一樣黑,香港的生命科技公司早前不也被人踢爆了嗎.

Ghost Story

At Medical Journals, WritersPaid by Industry Play Big Role

Articles Appear Under NameOf Academic Researchers,But They Often Get Help
J&J Receives a Positive 'Spin'

By ANNA WILDE MATHEWS
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
December 13, 2005; Page A1

In 2001, the American Journal of Kidney Diseases published an article that touted the use of synthetic vitamin D. Its author was listed as Alex J. Brown, an associate professor at Washington University in St. Louis.
But recently, that same article was featured as a work sample by a different person: Michael Anello, a free-lance medical writer, who posted a summary of it on his Web site. Mr. Anello says he was hired to write the article by a communications firm working for Abbott Laboratories, which makes a version of the vitamin D product. Dr. Brown agrees he got help in writing but says he redid part of the draft.
It's an example of an open secret in medicine: Many of the articles that appear in scientific journals under the bylines of prominent academics are actually written by ghostwriters in the pay of drug companies. These seemingly objective articles, which doctors around the world use to guide their care of patients, are often part of a marketing campaign by companies to promote a product or play up the condition it treats.
A HIDDEN ROLE?
Now questions about the practice are mounting as medical journals face unprecedented scrutiny of their role as gatekeeper for scientific information. Last week, the New England Journal of Medicine admitted that a 2000 article it published highlighting the advantages of Merck & Co.'s Vioxx painkiller omitted information about heart attacks among patients taking the drug. The journal has said the deletions were made by someone working from a Merck computer. Merck says the heart attacks happened after the study's cutoff date and it did nothing wrong.
The Annals of Internal Medicine tightened its policies on writer disclosure this year after a University of Arizona professor listed as the lead author of a Vioxx article in 2003 said he had little to do with the research in it.
The practice of letting ghostwriters hired by communications firms draft journal articles -- sometimes with acknowledgment, often without -- has served many parties well. Academic scientists can more easily pile up high-profile publications, the main currency of advancement. Journal editors get clearly written articles that look authoritative because of their well-credentialed authors.
Increasingly, though, editors and some academics are stepping forward to criticize the practice, saying it could hurt patients by giving doctors biased information. "Scientific research is not public relations," says Robert Califf, vice chancellor of clinical research at Duke University Medical Center. "If you're a firm hired by a company trying to sell a product, it's an entirely different thing than having an open mind for scientific inquiry. ...What would happen to a PR firm that wrote a paper that said this product stinks? Do you think their contract would be renewed?"
Drug companies say they're providing a service to busy academic researchers, some of whom may not be skilled writers. The companies say they don't intend for their ghostwriters to bias the tone of articles that appear under the researchers' names.
Authors "have to sign off on everything," says Mark Horn, a Pfizer Inc. medical director. "This is properly viewed as a way to more efficiently make the transition from raw data to finished manuscript." Professors who get writing help generally say they give the writers input and check the work carefully.

The criticism of ghostwriting is one of several issues that have put scientific journals on the defensive. Even journal editors acknowledge they have sometimes done a poor job of detecting when articles cherry-pick favorable data to promote a particular drug or treatment. Some health insurers have stopped taking what they read in the journals on faith and are employing analysts to scrutinize articles for negative data that are buried.
It's hard to say how widespread ghostwriting is. An analysis presented at a medical-journal conference in September found that just 10% of articles on studies sponsored by the drug industry that appeared in top medical journals disclosed help from a medical writer. Often the help isn't disclosed. An informal poll of 71 free-lance medical writers by the American Medical Writers Association found that 80% had written at least one manuscript that didn't mention their contributions.
In the case of the vitamin D article, Dr. Brown says Abbott asked him to write it but he didn't have time. He had written an earlier article on the subject. "They said they would have one of their people write it, update my old review article and I would check it," he recalls. Mr. Anello, a Milwaukee writer who studied biochemistry at the University of Wisconsin, says he wrote the new article. "I've done a lot of ghostwriting jobs," he says, adding that sometimes he works closely with the named authors. (See related document excerpts.)
Dr. Brown says he had to rewrite "at least 30% to 40%" of Mr. Anello's draft. In retrospect, he says, he probably should have asked Abbott who Mr. Anello was and "if that person should be acknowledged." Abbott said the article's content was "under the complete discretion" of Dr. Brown and didn't discuss details. The journal's managing editor declined to comment because the journal is under new management.
Following questions from The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Anello removed the article summary from his Web site. Until recently, his online bibliography listed other scientific publications he has written under others' bylines that have yet to be published. The byline on one was "author to be named."
Medical writers frequently have scientific backgrounds. Some work for universities, drug companies or medical-communications firms, while others are free-lancers who typically get $90 to $120 an hour. A communications firm may charge $30,000 or more to have a team of writers, editors and graphic designers put together an article. Some of these firms are part of larger companies in publishing and advertising such as Thomson Corp. and Reed Elsevier PLC.
Elsevier's Excerpta Medica unit helps clients craft publications for prestigious scientific journals. Elsevier itself publishes many such journals, most notably The Lancet. Excerpta Medica says on its Web site that its relationship with its corporate parent's journals "allows us access to editors and editorial boards." (See related excerpt.)
But Sabine Kleinert, an executive editor at The Lancet, says she has never worked with Excerpta Medica and rejects articles that have a marketing spin. "Promotion has a different goal than publishing a legitimate research study," says Dr. Kleinert. She suspects companies sometimes influence medical writers "to write it up in a certain way to make a product sound more efficacious than it is."
A 1999 document that turned up in a lawsuit describes Pfizer's publications strategy for its antidepressant Zoloft. The document, prepared by a unit of ad giant WPP Group, includes 81 different articles proposed for journals. They would promote the drug's use in conditions from panic disorder to pedophilia. (See related excerpt.)
Author 'to Be Determined'
For some articles, the name of the author was listed as "TBD," or "to be determined," even though the article or a draft was listed as already completed. Several of the listed articles ultimately ran in scientific publications -- including one in JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association -- without disclosing the role of outside writers.
In a statement responding to questions from The Wall Street Journal, Pfizer said agencies sometimes "pull together first draft manuscripts" based on information provided by researchers who will serve as authors. It says the academics who were later given credit as lead authors of the "TBD" articles were instrumental in designing the studies that the articles described. The lead authors said they had input into the drafts and approved the final papers.
In recent years, more journal editors have begun demanding that academic authors of studies explain their exact roles and disclose any work by medical writers. The editors say the writers can perform a valuable role so long as it's disclosed to readers.
Writers agree -- and the American Medical Writers Association is pressing for greater acknowledgment of its members' work. But some medical writers say they fear articles with full disclosure are likely to get bounced. Editors "say they want disclosure, but if you do it, they scream, 'ghostwriter!' " says Art Gertel, who oversees medical writing at Beardsworth Consulting Group in Flemington, N.J. "Despite the cries for transparency, the journal editors still feel that there's an element of corruption if a medical writer is paid by a drug company."
Catherine DeAngelis, JAMA's editor in chief, says even a conscientious journal can only go so far in policing academics. "I don't give lie-detector tests to people," Dr. DeAngelis says.
BMJ, a British medical journal, has one of the toughest disclosure policies, but it can get misled. Last year, a note at the end of a BMJ article on painkillers and asthma said the article was "conceived and initiated" by its three academic authors. Lead author Christine Jenkins "performed the analysis and drafted the paper," the note said, adding that the work wasn't funded by a drug company. Dr. Jenkins is a senior researcher at Australia's Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, which has ties to the University of Sydney. (See related excerpts.)
In fact, a medical writer paid by GlaxoSmithKline PLC helped draft the manuscript, the drug company confirms. The analysis was almost identical to an earlier, unpublished one that the company says was "initiated" by that writer. Both analyses concluded that acetaminophen or Tylenol (sold under a different name by GlaxoSmithKline in Britain) was safer for asthma patients than aspirin or other painkillers. (See related excerpts.)
Dr. Jenkins says the structure of her work was "suggested" by the company version but she and the other authors did their own analysis. Dr. Jenkins says she personally "wrote a very large chunk" of the BMJ article and worked closely with the writer. Dr. Jenkins and GlaxoSmithKline declined to give the writer's name.
Dr. Jenkins says she didn't know that the company paid the writer. GlaxoSmithKline didn't pay Dr. Jenkins for the BMJ article, but the company previously paid her to speak at a conference and has given a major grant to the Woolcock Institute.
In a statement, GlaxoSmithKline says the paper "should have disclosed the involvement of a medical writer compensated by GSK." The company says it "regards the omission as a lapse on the part of GSK."
Fiona Godlee, BMJ's editor, says Dr. Jenkins "should have declared the involvement of the medical writer." Dr. Godlee says the journal will print papers that involve a medical writer, but she believes "the actual authors have to be incredibly closely involved."
When articles are ghostwritten by someone paid by a company, the big question is whether the article gets slanted. That's what one former free-lance medical writer alleges she was told to do by a company hired by Johnson & Johnson.
Instruction Sheet
Susanna Dodgson, who holds a doctorate in physiology, says she was hired in 2002 by Excerpta Medica, the Elsevier medical-communications firm, to write an article about J&J's anemia drug Eprex. A J&J unit had sponsored a study measuring whether Eprex patients could do well taking the drug only once a week. The company was facing competition from a rival drug sold by Amgen Inc. that could be given once a week or less.
Dr. Dodgson says she was given an instruction sheet directing her to emphasize the "main message of the study" -- that 79.3% of people with anemia had done well on a once-a-week Eprex dose. In fact, only 63.2% of patients responded well as defined by the original study protocol, according to a report she was provided. That report said the study's goal "could not be reached." Both the instruction sheet and the report were viewed by The Wall Street Journal. The higher figure Dr. Dodgson was asked to highlight used a broader definition of success and excluded patients who dropped out of the trial or didn't adhere to all its rules.
The instructions noted that some patients on large doses didn't seem to do well with the once-weekly administration but warned that this point "has not been discussed with marketing and is not definitive!"
The Eprex study appeared last year in the journal Clinical Nephrology, highlighting the 79.3% figure without mentioning the lower one. The article didn't acknowledge Dr. Dodgson or Excerpta Medica. Dr. Dodgson, who now teaches medical writing at the University of the Sciences in Philadelphia, says she didn't like the Eprex assignment "but I had to earn a living."
The listed lead author, Paul Barré of McGill University in Montreal, says Excerpta Medica did "a lot of the scutwork" but he had "complete freedom" to change its drafts. Dr. Barré says he helped design the study and enroll patients in it. In statements, J&J and Excerpta Medica offered similar explanations of the process. J&J says it regularly uses outside firms "to expedite the development of independent, peer-reviewed publications."
A J&J spokesman said he wasn't familiar with the details of the instruction sheet and referred questions about the highlighted data to Dr. Barré, who said he never interacted with J&J's marketing department and doesn't believe the article was biased. He said the higher figure was "more representative" because those patients followed the study's rules. "Without wanting to distort data, you always want to put the spin that's more positive for the article," Dr. Barré says. "You're more likely to get it published."
Hartmut Malluche, an editor of Clinical Nephrology, declined to comment on details of the article. The journal doesn't require authors to disclose the role of medical writers. But after hearing Dr. Dodgson's story, Dr. Malluche said he would suggest changing the policy. "It's not good if the company has control over the article," he says.
Some academics are protesting ghostwriting. Adriane Fugh-Berman, an associate professor at the Georgetown University School of Medicine, says she received an email last year from a company hired by drug maker AstraZeneca PLC. The email offered her the chance to get credit for writing an article. "... [W]e will forward you a draft for your input so that you would need only to review and then advise us of any changes required," it said.
She says she was shown a draft but declined the offer. Then the Journal of General Internal Medicine asked her to peer-review a version of the same article, submitted by a different researcher. She decided to go public, and wrote about her experience in the journal.
AstraZeneca and the communications firm say it was all a mistake. Dr. Fugh-Berman should have been shown a different article from the one she was later asked to peer-review, they say. The article for peer review was in fact written by the author who submitted it to the journal, they say. AstraZeneca says it "does not support the practice of ghostwriting" and always discloses any support it gives to academic authors.
John Farrar, a pain expert at the University of Pennsylvania, says he once turned down a company's offer to give him a ghostwritten draft about a study on which he had worked. "They said, 'That's unusual,' " Dr. Farrar recalls. He wanted to write the manuscript himself because "you can put your spin on it. ...The way it is written -- the way it's structured -- is yours."

星期三, 12月 07, 2005

Journalism Primers: Covering Oil: A Reporter's Guide to Energy and Development

Trying to find Joseph Stiglitz's new book 'Fair trade for all', but stumble upon this freebie instead. Sound interesting

Journalism Primers: Covering Oil: A Reporter's Guide to Energy and Development
OSI and IPD
Aug 04, 2005

For the vast majority of people in most resource-rich countries, natural wealth does not translate into prosperity, but instead leads to environmental and economic devastation, and hampers democratic reform.Only an informed public can hold leaders to account. Yet local reporting often overlooks the legal, economic, and environmental implications of resource extraction.

Covering Oil: A Reporter's Guide to Energy and Development, a collaborative work of the Open Society Institute's Revenue Watch program and the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, aims to encourage rigorous reporting on these issues by providing practical information about the petroleum industry and the impact of resource wealth on a producing country."Journalists can play a crucial role in educating people in resource-rich countries on how the petroleum industry affects their lives," said Julie McCarthy, the acting director of Revenue Watch. "But those reporters need access to information in order to know what questions to ask."The guidebook comes out of a series of organized workshops for journalists in the oil-exporting countries of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, during which participants expressed a need for more information to help them understand the issues surrounding resource exploitation.

In response to these consultative workshops, Covering Oil outlines the fundamentals of petroleum contracts, provides a glossary of relevant economic theory, and presents case studies of major public policy issues.Covering Oil is the second in a series of Revenue Watch guidebooks targeting different audiences involved in the promotion of transparency and democratic accountability. The first, Follow the Money: A Guide to Monitoring Budgets and Oil and Gas Revenues, was aimed at nongovernmental organizations. Both reports can be found at: www.revenuewatch.org

星期五, 11月 18, 2005

Mourning the management guru

Peter Drucker

Trusting the teacher in the grey-flannel suit
Nov 17th 2005
From The Economist print edition

The one management thinker every educated person should read

ON NOVEMBER 11th, a few days short of his 96th birthday, Peter Drucker died. The most important management thinker of the past century, he wrote about 40 books (the last, “The Effective Executive in Action” will be published in January) and thousands of articles. He was a guru to the world's corporate elite, not just in his native Europe and his adoptive America, but also in Japan and the developing world (one devoted South Korean businessman even changed his first name to Mr Drucker). And he never rested in his mission to persuade the world that management matters—that, in his own rather portentous formula, “Management is the organ of institutions...the organ that converts a mob into an organisation, and human efforts into performance.”
Did he succeed? The range of his influence was extraordinary. George Bush is a devotee of Mr Drucker's idea of “management by objectives”. (“I had read Peter Drucker,” Karl Rove once told the Atlantic Monthly, “but I'd never seen Drucker until I saw Bush in action.”) Newt Gingrich mentions him in almost every speech. Mr Drucker helped to inspire privatisation—an idea that in the 1980s galvanised Britain's sclerotic economy.
He changed the course of thousands of businesses. He spawned two huge revolutions at General Electric—first when GE followed the radical decentralisation he preached in the 1950s, and again in the 1980s when Jack Welch rebuilt the company around Mr Drucker's belief that it should be first or second in a line of business, or else get out. Yet Mr Drucker is also cited as a muse by both the Salvation Army and the modern mega-church movement. Wherever people grapple with tricky management problems, from big organisations to small ones, from the public sector to the private, and increasingly in the voluntary sector, you can find Mr Drucker's fingerprints.
This is not to say that Mr Drucker was invariably right—or even always sensible. He was given to making sweeping statements that sometimes turned out to be nonsense. He argued, for example, that the great American research universities are “failures” that would soon become “relics”—odd for a man who made so much of the knowledge economy. He was slow to shift his attention from big firms to entrepreneurial start-ups. But he was much more often right than wrong. And even when he was wrong he had a way of being thought-provoking.
The man who became famous as an American management thinker was really a Viennese Jewish intellectual. The author of this article once visited him in his home in Claremont, California—a modest affair when set beside the mansions of most management gurus. His choice of a restaurant for lunch was more modest still. But as Mr Drucker talked it was easy to forget about the giant plastic wagon wheels that decorated the walls or even the execrable food. He talked with his deep, heavy Teutonic accent about meeting Sigmund Freud (as a boy), John Maynard Keynes and Ludwig Wittgenstein (as a student at Cambridge). He said that he liked to keep his mind fresh by taking up a new subject every three or four years (he was heavily immersed in early medieval Paris at the time). The overall effect was rather like listening to Isaiah Berlin channelled by Henry Kissinger.
Mr Drucker was born in 1909 in the Austrian upper middle class—his father was a government official—and educated in Vienna and Germany. He earned a doctorate in international and public law from Frankfurt university in 1931. In normal times this would have led to a distinguished, if predictable, academic career. But those were not normal times—and Mr Drucker was not a man to bow down to the confines of academic disciplines. He spent his 20s trying to avoid Adolf Hitler and drifting among a number of jobs, including banking, consultancy, academic law and journalism (his journalistic career included a spell as the acting editor of a women's page).
Along the way, he became increasingly convinced that the best hope for saving civilisation from barbarism lay in the humdrum science of management. He was too sensitive to the thinness of the crust of civilisation to share the classic liberal faith in the market, but too clear-sighted to embrace the growing fashion for big-government solutions. The man in the grey-flannel suit held out more hope for mankind than either the hidden hand or the gentleman in Whitehall.
He finally found a home in American academia, teaching politics, philosophy and economics. But it was not exactly a happy home. His first two books—“The End of Economic Man” (1939) and “The Future of Industrial Man” (1942)—had their admirers, including Winston Churchill, but they annoyed academic critics by ranging so widely over so many different subjects. This might have sealed his fate as just another discontented academic maverick. But “The Future of Industrial Man” attracted the attention of General Motors—then the world's biggest company—with its passionate insistence that companies had a social dimension as well as an economic purpose.
The car company invited Mr Drucker to paint its portrait—and offered him unique access to GMers from Alfred Sloan down. The resulting book—“The Concept of the Corporation”—changed the young man's life. The book not only became an instant bestseller, in Japan as well as in America, remaining in print ever since. It also helped to create a management fashion for decentralisation. By the 1980s, about three-quarters of American companies had adopted a decentralised model. Mr Drucker later boasted that the book “had an immediate impact on American business, on public service institutions, on government agencies—and none on General Motors.” Mr Drucker the management guru had been born.

Knowledge workers
The two most interesting arguments in “The Concept of the Corporation” actually had little to do with the decentralisation fad. They were to dominate his work.
The first had to do with “empowering” workers. Mr Drucker believed in treating workers as resources rather than just as costs. He was a harsh critic of the assembly-line system of production that then dominated the manufacturing sector—partly because assembly lines moved at the speed of the slowest and partly because they failed to engage the creativity of individual workers. He was equally scathing of managers who simply regarded companies as a way of generating short-term profits. In the late 1990s he turned into one of America's leading critics of soaring executive pay, warning that “in the next economic downturn, there will be an outbreak of bitterness and contempt for the super-corporate chieftains who pay themselves millions.”
The second argument had to do with the rise of knowledge workers. Mr Drucker argued that the world is moving from an “economy of goods” to an economy of “knowledge”—and from a society dominated by an industrial proletariat to one dominated by brain workers. He insisted that this had profound implications for both managers and politicians. Managers had to stop treating workers like cogs in a huge inhuman machine—the idea at the heart of Frederick Taylor's stopwatch management—and start treating them as brain workers. In turn, politicians had to realise that knowledge, and hence education, was the single most important resource for any advanced society.
Yet Mr Drucker also thought that this economy had implications for knowledge workers themselves. They had to come to terms with the fact that they were neither “bosses” nor “workers”, but something in between: entrepreneurs who had responsibility for developing their most important resource, brainpower, and who also needed to take more control of their own careers, including their pension plans.
All this sounds as if Mr Drucker was an exponent of the airy-fairy human-relations school of management. But there was also a “hard” side to his work. Mr Drucker was responsible for inventing one of the rational school of management's most successful products—“management by objectives” (this is the one that Mr Bush still follows).
In one of his most substantial works, “The Practice of Management” (1954), he emphasised the importance of managers and corporations setting clear long-term objectives and then translating those long-term objectives into more immediate goals. He argued that firms should have an elite corps of general managers, who set these long-term objectives, and then a group of more specialised managers.
For his critics (who had a point), this was a retreat from his earlier emphasis on the soft side of management. For Mr Drucker it was all perfectly consistent: if you rely too much on empowerment you risk anarchy, whereas if you rely too much on command-and-control you sacrifice creativity. The trick is for managers to set long-term goals, but then allow their employees to work out ways of achieving those goals.
From early on, Mr Drucker tried to apply his interest in management in a universal way. For instance, he realised that America has no monopoly on management wisdom. This might not sound like much of an insight today, in the light of the Asian miracles. But in 1950s America—when most American managers dismissed Japan as a maker of cheap knickknacks and the rest of Asia as an irrelevance—it was a revelation.
Mr Drucker used his newfound fame in Japan to flesh out his suspicion that Japan was turning itself into an economic powerhouse. (As a sideline he managed to develop a fine collection of Japanese art.) He wrote extensively about Japanese management techniques long before they became popular in America in the 1980s. But he also exported many American techniques to a country that was desperate to learn from Uncle Sam.

More than just a business thinker
If Mr Drucker helped make management a global industry, he also helped push it beyond its business base. He was emphatically a management thinker, not just a business one. He believed that management is “the defining organ of all modern institutions”, not just corporations; and the management school that bears his name at Claremont College recruits a third of its students from outside the business world.
In the public sector, as well as championing privatisation, he helped to inspire the reinventing-government movement that Al Gore promoted with some success in the 1990s. That movement has gone into eclipse at the federal level, but is still forging ahead in some states, such as Massachusetts, where Mitt Romney, the governor, is a powerful supporter.
Some of Mr Drucker's most innovative work was with voluntary and religious institutions (indeed, Mr Bush singled out his contribution to civil institutions when he awarded him the presidential medal of freedom three years ago). Mr Drucker told his clients, who included the American Red Cross and the Girl Scouts of America, that they needed to think more like businesses—albeit businesses that dealt in “changed lives” rather than in maximising profits. Their donors, he warned, would increasingly judge them not on the goodness of their intentions, but on the basis of their results.
One perhaps unexpected example of Druckerism is the modern mega-church movement. He suggested to evangelical pastors that they create a more customer-friendly environment (hold back on the overt religious symbolism and provide plenty of facilities). Bill Hybels, the pastor of the 17,000-strong Willow Creek Community Church in South Barrington, Illinois, has a quotation from Mr Drucker hanging outside his office: “What is our business? Who is our customer? What does the customer consider value?”
Mr Drucker went further than just applying business techniques to managing voluntary organisations. He believed that such entities have many lessons to teach business corporations. They are often much better at engaging the enthusiasm of their volunteers—and they are also better at turning their “customers” into “marketers” for their organisation. These days, business organisations have as much to learn from churches as churches have to learn from them.

What he got wrong
There are three persistent criticisms of Mr Drucker's work. The first is that he was never as good on small organisations—particularly entrepreneurial start-ups—as he was on big ones. “The Concept of the Corporation” was in many ways a fanfare to big organisations: “We know today that in modern industrial production, particularly in modern mass production,” Mr Drucker opined, “the small unit is not only inefficient, it cannot produce at all.” The book helped to launch the “big organisation boom” that dominated business thinking for the next 20 years.
The second criticism is that Mr Drucker's enthusiasm for management by objectives helped to lead business down a dead end. Most of today's best organisations have abandoned this idea—at least in the mechanistic form that it rapidly assumed. They prefer to allow ideas—including ideas for long-term strategies—to bubble up from the bottom and middle of the organisations rather than being imposed from on high. And they tend to eschew the complex management structures of the management-by-objectives era. The reason is that top management is often cut off from the people who know both their markets and their products best (a criticism that certainly rings true in Mr Bush's White House, though that is another story).
Third, Mr Drucker is criticised for being a maverick in the management world—and a maverick who has increasingly been left behind by the increasing rigour of his chosen field. He taught in tiny Claremont rather than at Harvard or Stanford. He never grappled with the rigours of quantitative techniques. There is no single area of academic management theory that he made his own—as Michael Porter did with strategy and Theodore Levitt did with marketing. He would throw out a highly provocative idea—such as the idea that the West has entered a post-capitalist society, thanks to the importance of pension funds—without really clarifying his terms or tying up his arguments.
There is some truth in the first two arguments. Mr Drucker never wrote anything as good as “The Concept of the Corporation” on entrepreneurial start-ups. This is odd, given his personality: this prophet of the “age of organisations” was a quintessential individualist who was happiest ploughing his own furrow. (One of his favourite sayings was, “One either meets or one works.”) It is also remarkable since he spent so much of his life in southern California—a hotbed of individualism and entrepreneurialism that helped to produce the small-business revolution of the 1980s. Mr Drucker's work on management by objectives sits uneasily with his earlier (and later) writing on the importance of knowledge workers and self-directed teams.
But the third argument—that he was too much of a maverick—is both short-sighted and unfair. It is short-sighted because it ignores Mr Drucker's pioneering role in creating the modern profession of management. He produced one of the first systematic studies of a big company. He pioneered the idea that ideas can help galvanise companies. And he helped to make management fashionable with a constant stream of popular writing. It may be over-egging things to claim that Mr Drucker was “the man who invented management”. But he certainly made a unique contribution to the development of the subject.
It is true that he cannot be put into any neat academic pigeonhole: he liked to refer to himself as a “social ecologist” rather than a management theorist, still less a management guru (he once quipped that journalists use the word “guru” only because “charlatan” is too long for a headline). It is true that he eschewed the system-building of some of his fellow academics. And he preferred reading Jane Austen to doing multivariate analysis.
But system-building often produces castles in the air rather than enduring insights. (It is notable that Mr Drucker's most systematic work—on management by objectives—has lasted least well.) Mr Drucker made up for his lack of system with a stream of insights on an extraordinary range of subjects: he was one of the first people to predict, back in the 1950s, that computers would revolutionise business, for example. His reading of history enabled him to see through the fog that clouds less learned minds: he liked to puncture breathless talk of the new age of globalisation by pointing out that companies such as Fiat (founded in 1899) and Siemens (founded in 1847) produced more abroad than at home almost as soon as they got off the ground.
These days management theory is increasingly dominated by academic clones who produce papers on minute subjects in unreadable prose. That certainly does not apply to a man who claimed that the academic course that most influenced him was on, of all things, admiralty law.

The legacy
The biggest problem with evaluating Mr Drucker's influence is that so many of his ideas have passed into conventional wisdom—in other words, that he is the victim of his own success. His writings on the importance of knowledge workers and empowerment may sound a little banal today. But they certainly weren't banal when he first dreamed them up in the 1940s, or when they were first put in to practice in the Anglo-Saxon world in the 1980s. Remember the way that many British bosses scoffed when Japanese carmakers set up factories in Britain and told their Geordie workers that they had to think as well as rivet, weld and hammer?
Moreover, Mr Drucker continued to produce new ideas up until his 90s. His work on the management of voluntary organisations—particularly religious organisations—remained at the cutting edge. America's business academics have only just begun to look seriously at the organisational transformation that he helped to pioneer.
Mr Drucker has a way of getting the last word. Richard Nixon once began a pep talk to the Department of Health, Education and Welfare with a side-swipe at him. “Mr Drucker says that modern government can do only two things well: wage war and inflate the currency. It's the aim of my administration to prove Mr Drucker wrong.” In retrospect, Mr Nixon failed even at those potentially achievable tasks.
Asked which management books he paid attention to, Bill Gates once replied, “Well, Drucker of course,” before citing a few lesser mortals. Management theory has not evolved into the world's most rigorous or enticing intellectual discipline. But in Peter Drucker it at least found a champion whom every educated person should take the trouble to read.

星期六, 11月 12, 2005

Boy Genius: Karl Rove, The Architect Of George W. Bush's Remarkable Political Triumphs


"Who run this place? The anatomy of Britain in the 21st century" by Anthony Sampson is good. It provides a good description of UK political landscape.

I'm reading "Boy Genius: Karl Rove, The Architect Of George W. Bush's Remarkable Political Triumphs" by Carl M. Cannon, Lou Dubose, Jan Reid. Interesting reading.

Karl Roves is THE campaign manager of G.W.Bush since his Texas years. I was surprised that Texas was dominated by Democratic Party years ago. It was Karl who sensed the return of conservatism in Texas general public and brought Republican back.

The book includes a lot of interesting stories about how Karl spinned and destroyed all the Democratic Party stars. Lot of dirty tricks involved. That's why politicians from both parties fear and hate Karl. Let see if Karl can survive the CIA leak scandal.

My recent reading is focus on valuation and PRC accounting stuffs. Too boring to introduce those books here. But I did watch an interesting dvd called "The Corporation" recently (http://www.thecorporation.com/index.php?page_id=2). The film is based on the book The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power by Joel Bakan.


Modern corporation is highly influential to our society and everyday life. Corporation is like the middle age Church, modern CEO is like the Cardinal. From legislation to war, corporate shapes domestic and international politic. Despite all the scandals, executives are still highly respectable and influential, generally speaking.

Corporation exists to create profit and bears no moral obligation. Although they are also part of the political system and are subjected to other political balancing forces. However, since corporation controls enormous resources that make them the dominate power in modern society.

As Gabriel Herbas (Prof. of Economics, State University, Bolivia) said in the film, "Our governments, sadly, are just puppets for these companies." Sam Gibara (Chairman, former CEO Goodyear Tire) also admitted that "Corporations today have more power than governments."

Even in a system like US that emphasis balance of power, corporation is still highly dominate. Not to say how powerful corporation is in developing countries that put GDP growth above everything else.

Corporation affects our environment, our social value and our way of life. (how long our work hours is ?; how "corporate ladder" divided people into different "class"; how advertising and media shaping consumption behavior & what does "good life" means; how media corporation control our information/news flow; how "corporate mission" brainwash their employees … etc)

Although “The Corporation” is a bit too“Michael Moore” and a bit too angry, it does provides a wider prospective to the issue. The Corporation includes forty interviews with corporate insiders and critics - including Milton Friedman, Noam Chomsky, Naomi Klein, and Michael Moore, Hank McKinnell (CEO Pfizer Inc.), Sir Mark Moody-Stuart (Former Chairman, Royal Dutch Shell), Andrea Finger (Spokesperson for Disney-built town of Celebration), Peter Drucker, Elaine Bernard (Executive Director, Trade Union Program, Harvard) …etc (interviewee list : http://www.thecorporation.com/index.php?page_id=3)

Highly recommended to all of us.

===============================================

More about Karl Rove .............

Karl Rove
Senior adviser and deputy chief of staff
Date of birth: Dec. 25, 1950

Karl Rove is a man of many nicknames. He is the "Architect" of Bush's victories; he is "Bush's Brain." The president alternately calls him "Boy Genius" or "Turd Blossom," a Texas phrase describing a flower that grows in manure. He is the mastermind of the White House, the instigator-in-chief responsible for a series of policies and political maneuvers aimed first at getting his boss re-elected, and now at creating a permanent Republican majority.

In the first term, Rove was Bush's senior political adviser, officially in charge of strategic planning and political affairs. In early 2005, Bush also made him deputy chief of staff, so he now officially coordinates the policies of the National Security Council, the Domestic Policy Council, the National Economic Council and the Homeland Security Council. The result is that Rove is the poster child for how politics and policy have merged in the Bush White House.

Traditionally, governing is a considerably different matter than running for office, where winning is everything. Not so with Rove. If he eventually starts losing, he could end up taking the blame for creating a divisive presidency, aimed more at achieving partisan goals than the common good. But if he keeps winning, he will be a kingmaker even as his boss becomes a lame duck -- and his legacy could be a GOP that is indeed the ruling party for decades to come.

The Architect, PBS's Frontline, April 2005 (Includes priceless video, at the 4:45 mark, of a young Karl Rove lecturing Dan Rather about the importance of voter registration in the 1972 Nixon campaign.)
With Bush Re-elected, Rove Turns to Policy, New York Times, March 28, 2005
The Karl Rove Ascension, washingtonpost.com, Feb. 9, 2005
Barbara Walters's Most Fascinating People, ABC News, Dec. 8, 2004
The Many Faces of Karl Rove, washingtonpost.com, Nov. 8, 2004
The Controller, New Yorker, May 12, 2003
Rove's Way, New York Times Magazine, Oct. 20, 2002
Official Bio

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P.S. : Mike, please contact Daisy for the "Fraud Examination", W.Steven Albreecht (translated version).

星期日, 11月 06, 2005

買到停不到手

這兩天新增書債8本

what went wrong? by Bernard Lewis 中東歷史大師講為何伊斯蘭同西方國家咁多仇口

Conundrum by Jan Morris 著名旅遊作家夫子自道,講自己變性的心路歷程

The invisible continent by Kenichi Ohmae 策略大師的舊作,講新經濟下的企業生存之道,貪其名氣而買,可能有排都唔睇

who run this place? The anatomy of britain in the 21st century by Anthony Sampson 老牌英國記者教你睇英國政壇、企業有乜問題

系統的哲學 by 金觀濤 - 其哲學思想的集大成

神話簡史 by Karen Armstrong 神的歷史的作者,對這類題材駕輕就熟

睡眠與做夢 by Jacob Empson 睡眠科學面面觀

上了建築旅行的癮 by 陳世良 台灣建築師講世界名建築,相文都好似幾得

星期五, 10月 28, 2005

童年的消逝


然本身從事媒體行業,但很少看關於媒體分析的書,可是對於已故媒體分析家Neil Postman的書,卻一直情有獨鐘.Postman很喜歡探討電視文化對社會造成的衝擊,但路數卻很廣泛,把史料、人類學與社會學等學科結合,往往給他扭出新的花樣.「童年的消逝(The Disappearance of Childhood)」正是這樣一部趣味盎然的示範作.

與歷史上大部份概念一樣,童年本身也非想當然的產物,原來有其演變的過程.在更早的年代裏,因為醫療知識與技術的不足,兒童隨時有可能會夭折,再加上成人都已經自顧不暇,因此,童年這個概念是不存在的.那個時代的孩子,一旦脫離襁褓階段,他們的穿著、說話與工作內容,就與成人無異,更沒有何謂「兒童不宜」的概念。那是一個沒有童年的時代。

Postman認為,童年概念的出現,始於印刷術發明之後,因為印刷術使得知識能夠流通,也使得越來越多的人能夠識字,但是這許多識字的人口中,並不包括兒童。因為了解文字的能力,包含了解抽象符號背後的意義,還要有解碼與轉換意義的能力,這些都不是經驗不足的兒童所能操作的,因此,印刷術使得兒童與成人之間的界線變得十分鮮明,童年作為過渡至識字前的狀態因而得到確立。也就是從這個時候開始,兒童的教育、成長、福利問題逐漸成為成人所關切的重要議題。

可是隨著電視的出現,卻導致童年的消逝。因為當書籍是唯一知識管道的來源時,成人可以對資訊加以分門別類,讓孩子在心智成熟之前,過濾一些他不應該、不適宜知道的知識。但是電視的出現,粉碎了成人壟斷知識的權力。因為理解影像遠較辨識符號容易,是孩子在很小的時候便發展完成的能力。因此,在孩子學習閱讀文字之前,電視早已用更強勢的影像語言,教會孩子該知道以及不該知道的事。

也因此在電視出現之後,兒童說話越來越老氣橫秋,像「殘酷一叮」捧紅了舉手投足唱歌談吐學足大人的莫生,對大人的權威越來越不屑一顧,反而成人卻有越來越孩子氣的跡象,童年因此正式消亡。

雖然Postman沒有為如何保存「童年」提供答案,但卻給予讀者一個愉快的閱讀經驗,那種半帶戲謔的筆觸,令人頗有點遊車河般的暢快.補充一句,筆者看的是中譯本,但譯本相當不俗,幾乎沒有翻譯的痕跡.

筆者去年也看過Postman的另一著作「娛樂至死(Amusing ourselves to death)」,同樣串嘴,講即食娛樂文化如何令人活在赫胥黎的美麗新世界(Brave New World)而不自知,有時間再推介.