開卷有益

Halo Effect

2007-10-14T01:28:00.000+08:00

<追求卓越striving for excellence>,<從優秀到卓越from good to great>,<基業長青build to last>這些管理暢銷書,都煞有介事的提出了企業如何成功的公式,他們做了大量案例研究,再以科學的方法包裝,捕捉到行政人員要求即食絕招的心態,往往輕易賣個滿堂紅.

可是<光環效應halo effect>正正是與他們對著幹,目的是戳穿他們的技俩,指出這些所謂成功秘岌的脆弱.光環效應指的是單單研究成功公司的成功因素,是註定失敗的,因為業績好或股價長升長有的公司,往往像罩了一層光環,令外人甚至公司員工均認為公司的一切都是好的,結果是估量(如問卷調查)一些難以量化的因素如企業文化,領導能力及客戶關注度時,均受到公司良好形象的影響而得出偏差的數據,以這些數據來作研究難逃失敗.作者尤其認為,以一些商業周刊歌功頌德的所謂案例來作研究,更加是garbage in, garbage out.

除了這個觀點以外,作者又提出了其他謬誤,包括管理暢銷書總歌頌專注業務,而貶低擴展至其他業務的做法,但實情是專注單一業務的成功例子雖然多,但失敗例子更多,專注業務本身就包含更大的風險,一旦押錯注便game over,而包羅其他業務的做法,則有分散風險的效果.暢銷書叫人專注業務,卻沒有提醒你這是高風險高回報的做法.

另外,作者又認為,坊間熱賣書總提出了幾個因素是企業成功的關鍵,但其實衡量當中的個別貢獻是很困難的,員工流失率低與決策權下放可能有關連,其兩者相加的影響可能不是1+1=2而是少於2! 因為決策權下放可能促進員工有參與感而減少流失,故此兩者對公司業績的影響其實有重覆計算之嫌.

當然,暢銷書也不會告訴你時勢與運氣,對造就公司成功的重要性.大型連銷超市K-mart,其實在營運上落足心機,而在管理存貨及資訊系統上都一直有進步,但問題是遇上更強的對手Wal-mart,結果免不了要走上破產之路.

至於作者說兩項因素(如業績與企業文化)有關連並不等於有因果關係,則已經耳熟能詳.較為有趣的是,作者提到管理大師tom peters其後承認,在撰寫<追求卓越>的時候,是心中先有結論,才找數據支持自己的,而這個項目當時只是顧問公司麥堅時的一個小項目.

當然,由此你可以估到,作者提出的成功錦囊,就是沒有絕招,還原基本步,最重要還是講策略及執行力,沒有捷徑可言,也一定要冒風險.

筆者從來不會對管理暢銷書過份認真,正如那些教人自我改進或發達的書,如果其中一本真的有效,似乎就用不著出一本一本的出版了.暢銷的大前提,就是要人人都看得懂,而真正成功的管理從來都不是這樣簡單.

The myth of the rational voter

2007-08-12T01:02:00.000+08:00

被譽為10年來寫得最好的公共選擇理論著作，作者開宗明義便認為選民非理性，尤其在面對經濟議題方面，更充斥著偏見，因此透過民主程序往往得出壞政策，如果把選民看作消費者般理性便大錯特錯，所以傳統經濟學這種天真的想法遲早要改轅易轍。

好像貿易政策，普羅大眾往往無視經濟學的已有共識，情傾保護主義，這不是一小撮既得利益者與政客的操作，而是得到眾多民調所証實：保護主義真的得到廣泛的民意支持。同時，大多數人贊成引入最低工資，反對放寬移民的想法，同樣與經濟學的主流意見相左。

作者透過研究大量民調及統計，發現市民與經濟學家的思想鴻溝相當之大，而這絕非因為經濟學家較高的社會地位、收入、工作穩定性（較高收入及社會地位可能傾向保護建制）可以解釋。假定這些專家正確的機會比一般人高的話，則這樣的選民只會選擇出錯誤的政策。

對於有理論指群眾的錯誤可以互相抵銷，因而醒目的選民最終會主導投票結果，但作者認為這只有當群眾的錯誤是隨機的才能成立，但問題是選民對經濟事務的偏見是系統性的，故此錯誤不能互相抵銷。他列出４種觀點上的偏差：１）反市場：選民對市場有較大疑慮；２）反外國：低估與外國合作的好處；３）職位偏愛：認為任何職位的增加都是好的，殊不知有時職位的消失才是經濟富強之道，因為生產力的上升會令某種貨品需要越來越少的人力，好像過去９成人要務農為生，但農夫的職位已大量消失，經濟從沒有因此而萎縮。４）悲觀傾向：總以為當前的經濟問題很嚴重。

選民的非理性，還很多時反映在他們投票時絕非從一己利益出發，而是從大局考慮，選出自以為對整體社會最好的方案。作者認為這種「我為人人」的自我陶醉想法，令選民飄飄然，也因而無視其本身政策可能導致惡果，尤其是當惡果無法影響選民修正其決定。這是因為，選民的一票對大局的影響可有可無，很少是決定性的一票，故此即使投錯，也未必對大局有影響，倒不如隨心之所欲。二來，壞政策的影響由全部人來承受，損失被攤分開來，選民遠不如消費者買錯劣質電器或買錯樓般有切膚之痛。

作者認為，既然選民在經濟事務上像不懂事的小孩，那政客便可以像父母般對其欺欺哄哄，在口頭上唯唯諾諾，但實際執行上卻陽奉陰違，甚至可以借公務員過蹺，以避免執行選民認可但會拖累經濟的政策，因為選民不會承認這樣的結果是基於他們的選擇，最終取悅選民的政客要成為代罪羔羊。

既然選民非理性，那用民主程序來決定經濟政策便有問題，故此作者認為，要給市場機制及司法制度多一點空間，讓這些渠道來處理經濟的問題。同時，要提升教育，因為民調證明，教育程度較高的人偏差較少。

作者的立論其實相當大膽，也有點挑戰「民主大哂」的意味，但其一個主要的訊息，就是利用大量政治學的研究成果，要傳統經濟學重新檢視其選民理性的前提是否還適用。

以本書的題目之大，但篇幅僅約２００頁，故此頗有意猶未盡的感覺，而中段的論據推進較快，可能要重看才能摸清其想法。獨括而言，這本書有很多新穎的觀點，儘管你未必同意，但衝擊一下思想總有助斟酌損益。

The Cloudspotter's Guide

2007-08-03T23:24:00.000+08:00

Who knows how heavy is cloud? Typically more than 80 elephants! What if you fall into cumulonimbus (the sort of cloud formed before downpour), it may take you 40 minutes to reach the ground if your parachute is opened.
A lovely book on cloud appreciation, which is freely available to everyone as long as you raise your head. The author is really passionate on this subject and organised the materials in such a way that strikes a balance between entertaining and knowledge. Lot of beautiful photos and interesting antidotes.

Cold War

2007-08-03T23:22:00.000+08:00

A really concise introduction of that piece of history. not in chronological order but each chapter come with a theme like how it started, nuclear arm race, how small countries survived and even exploited these....etc. Not easy to follow if you have no clue at all of what happened during those days. Instead it gives you the framework to see what forces were shaping the events. It revealed political leaders sometimes may act insanely yet rationally under imperfect information and ideological trap.

A History of Jews

2007-08-03T23:20:00.000+08:00

When 700,000 Jews were sent to gas chamber in Poland, "Boston Globe gave it the headline 'Mass Murders of Jews in Poland Pass 700,000 Mark' but buried the story on page 12. The New York Times called it 'probably the greatest mass slaughter in history' but gave it only two inches."
Make no mistake, the Holocaust was not a masterpiece of the notorious Hitler alone. Anti-Semitism is a global phenomenon. How come Jews were hated by the whole world to such an extent that no one care about their life anymore? Historian Paul Johnson traced the history of Jews all the way to Bible till now.
I just read the last 2 chapters, which started with the World War II and the establishment of Israel. Though the author seems to have a more sympathetic view towards Jews, it didn't tarnish the elegantly-put arguments.
Bought the book in Krakow, Poland, at which the largest concentration camps in WWII located. You can't help to ponder on the whole tragedy.

The Book of General Ignorance

2007-08-03T23:18:00.000+08:00

A BBC programme turned into a book. It tells you many of the common sense you got from hearsay are actually wrong. Magellan was not the first man to circumnavigate the globe, Mount Everest isn't the tallest mountain, Alexander Bell didn't invent the phone.......
It always arouse my curiosity as to how flawed facts or beliefs can take root and become common sense. However, this book won't give you any answer of this. Anyway, the book is really entertaining.

The Next Great Globalization

2007-08-02T21:28:00.001+08:00

在次按風暴一波未平的此際，讀經濟學家Frederic Mishkin這本講金融全球化的書可說相當應景．Mishkin是貨幣政策研究的權威，他的教科書幾乎是必讀之作，曾任聯儲局的經濟師，與現任局長白南克合著關於通貨膨脹目標制的學術著作，曾獲委託檢討IMF的內部機制，故此他的江湖地位毋庸置疑，你會在書中多次看到他公然與幾名經濟大師Joseph Stiglitz,Paul Krugman, Jeffrey Sachs大唱對台戲．

作者認為金融全球化是全球化的2.0版本，是貿易自由化後經濟發展的另一階段，搞得好則經濟會有第２春，追上大國水平的機會極高，可是金融全球化卻陷阱處處．原因不在於全球化本身，而是既得利益者會令到全球化進程不倫不類四不象，例如開放銀行業予外資但又限制競爭，規則配套追不上，好像法律保障私產不足，而清盤程序障礙重重，結果是未見其利先見其害，釀成不少金融危機．

作者對金融全球化的現實面深切體會，對既得利益者的政治實力更不存幻想．他舉美國８０年代的儲蓄貸款機構危機為例，當時的監管機構看出一家大的金融機構財政出了問題，意圖介入，但老闆聘請了７７家律師行度橋阻撓，更聘請了格蘭斯潘（當時仍未為聯儲局局長）為其說盡好話，兼捐出１３０萬美元予５大參議員為其保駕護航，結果負責調查的頭頭要掛冠而去，調查機構被cut經費．該金融機構最後依然以清盤收場，並要納稅人出資２０億美元拯救，而整場儲蓄貸款風暴則要納稅人花１５００億美元結帳．連美國要金融改革也政治阻力重重，何況新興市場！

盡管如此，作者仍認為不要因噎廢食，開放金融市場依然好處多多，但要一步步來，要配套跟得上，要讓監管機構有權力．作者認為市場不是萬能，因為訊息不對稱，會常常出現「公我贏，字你輸」的情況，所以監管者要確保資訊流通，亦要懲罰發放假資訊者．近期的次按危機只是另一場「無皇管」觸發的風波．

本書對象為一般讀者，故此行筆淺白，甚至有點過份不厭其煩，解完又解，但對於金融危機有興趣的讀者，這是一本不可多得的作品．

Everything Bad is Good for You

2007-08-02T01:06:00.000+08:00

當個個話打機無益，但有研究卻指打機刺激思考，有助手眼協調，改善社交同自信，越來越多人用打機來醫病．．．當人人指睇電視嘥時間，卻有人反駁電視劇劇情複雜知識含量高互動性強，實況電視(reality TV)更加促進EQ同IQ．作者以從小就迷上打機的過來人經驗，加上社會學的一些研究，力証這些所謂「無益」的大眾文化，其實都唔知幾有益身心，你係度反對只是食古不化，與時代脫節，與過去反對看小說、聽流行曲的人同樣會絕種．信不信由你，但作者用”睡眠者曲線”及人際關係圖來分析電視劇＜２４＞及＜Sopranos＞，玩到咁刁鑽,真係唔buy佢套野都不妨睇下．

House Prices and the Macroeconomy

2007-08-02T01:01:00.000+08:00

美國次按問題搞到滿城風雨，再一次凸顯樓市對經濟的深遠影響，雖然這個是阿媽係女人的經濟課題，但其實即使大學教科書，都無一個 model係講樓市點樣影響經濟，所以香港聯繫匯率設計師Cha rles Goodhart呢本書可說是填補這一片空白，至少對我而言適用．

本書全面探討樓市對經濟的影響，重點包括：

－樓價市的財富效應其實有正有負，對業主固然好，但交租的面臨加租便會有負財富效應，故整體是好是壞視乎業主多定租戶多．好像德國人的置業率低，樓價升便未必刺激到消費．

－樓市與借貸市場的良性互動：樓價升代表抵押品的價值上升，銀行願意借出更多，同時銀行的資產組合以市價計亦雄厚左，自然可以放更多數．銀行借錢鬆手，又會刺激樓價啟動循環．不過，在樓市下跌時，良性循環又會變成互相拖累的惡性循環．

－金融業的開放總伴隨著信貸過度擴張，資產泡沫以及其後的爆破，過去美國歐洲甚至亞洲均無一倖免．未來的中國及印度，將要面對這一挑戰．

－監管的趨勢令到樓市及經濟更波動：新巴塞爾協定及國際會計準則都向市價入帳過渡，結果銀行可能在好市時過度借貸在淡市時大舉收縮，以保持法定的資本充足比率，因為若以市價來計算風險，好市時總比淡市時低，但當間間銀行這樣做時，銀行體系的風險及穩健性便有影響，連帶對樓價及經濟不利．

－央行面對的挑戰：應否把樓價變動納入通脹指數，再以息口來一併調控消費通脹及資產價格通脹，抑或另外設定一個機制，要求銀行在樓價上升時保留更多的資本，在樓價下跌時釋放這些資本（即資本充足比率要與樓價掛鈎），以減少對經濟的影響．作者的選擇是後者，但佢認為依家無人會聽佢講，直至Basel ２行得幾年出左事，才有人會認真看待佢既意見．

作者在這些議題上做了大量原創性研究，故此提出了不少洞見，他尤其擔心在持續低通脹下，資產價格的日益波動反而被忽視了，而監管機構更加朝向助長這些波動的方向進發，金融系統的穩定性難免被削弱．作者的憂慮，在次按問題曝光，及私人資本基金借貸無度的當下，特別發人深省．

可惜的是，本書為學術專著，故此包含大量數據分析，對沒有經濟計量學底子的讀者會相當吃力，希望作者日後能出版一本較為平易近人的版本吧．

再造魅力故鄉

2007-08-02T00:59:00.000+08:00

與保育皇后碼頭事件何其相似！７０年代，日本小樽市政府有意把該市的運河填埋建成馬路，以一併解決發展需要及運河長期淤塞造成惡臭的問題．一場民間發起的保衛小樽運河運動隨即展開．開始時行政機關反應冷淡，公路興建的工程規劃仍然繼續．

民間組織未有氣餒，１９８３年的簽名運動，獲得全市１８萬人口逾一半人的簽名，才足以暫緩填埋運河一事，才能叫行政機關坐到談判桌上．

與市政府的角力只是其中一招，期間民間組織發起多項活動喚起大眾關注，包括發起小樽港都慶典，在運河周圍發起座談會甚至相聲活動，上演紙畫劇場＜小貓最喜歡運河＞，舉辨重新認識小樽市的研究講座，運河清掃活動，義賣等等．

活動更得到專業人士的參與，向政府提出了一套運河及交通計劃得以兩全的方法．

這場保育運動的結果是，政府企硬照起公路，運河則由原來４０米收窄至現時的１９米，畢竟較爭取之前的計劃好得多，而且還取得政府首肯加建沿河的散步道，擺放６０箋煤氣燈，變成現今的面貎．雖然保育人士宣告運動失敗，但新運河在電影＜情書＞中綻放魅力，成為北海道的超級景點，出乎意料地為這個夕陽都市注入新的經濟動力．

這個只是書中１７個保育或傳統社區重生故事中的一個，保育行動幾乎都是由民間發起的，過程總不順利，與官僚的關係亦緊張，但書中所描述的，除了是一場場公民抗爭，更多的是一批發起人對一磗一瓦及傳統社區的熱愛，這份熱愛加上他們對傳統文物的研究，令他們總能發掘到一個傳統建築的優點，並成功推銷開去，令群眾運動的層面得以擴大，成為與政府談判的籌碼，而且能夠兼演problem solver的角色，紓緩對立的張力，建立良性及建設性的對話．

本書的可觀之處正在於此，加上每篇均附上不少插圖、地圖甚至搞手的相片，對未去個該地方的讀者幫助很大，如果不嫌部份篇幅略為流水帳的話，可讀性相當不俗．

CICIR "ThinkTank" series

2006-09-23T02:49:00.000+08:00

Thinktanks with overseas funding and support have been closed down one by one since 2003. In contrast, "中国现代国际关系研究院" (www.cicir.ac.cn), a thinktank with party's blessing and possibly strong funding support, have grown rapidly.

CICIR claimed their target is becoming RAND of China. Recently, I bought several reference book published by CICIR. I found it pretty useful.

CICIR published a series of books on "ThinkTank" (photo) -- US, Europe and Russia.

Each of this introduce the role of thinktanks in respective political system. The book provide a "folder" style introduction to each of the major thinktank. CICIR comment and provide information on (a) the background (funding & history) of each thinktanks, (b) who is the key china experts and their attitude toward China.

The books are good source of background information for searching information from thinktank universe.

Looking forward to their "Japan Thinktank" which will be published in 2006.

請教經濟權威

2006-06-28T01:07:00.000+08:00

各位好，小弟有一事相問。
公民黨湯家驊託小弟急尋一位經濟學者，主講7月3日的經濟論壇。
說是已找了李寶椿及港府前首席經濟顧問(忘了姓甚名誰)，希望多找一位。
各位師兄/姊有何建議否？其聯絡方法如何？
冀告知，不勝感激。
英

Mathematics all around by Tom Pirnot

2006-04-19T02:33:00.000+08:00

很少看一本數學教科書看得這樣過癮,但這本確實寫得有趣非常.與一般教科書的循規蹈矩不同,本書橫跨多個數學範疇,由邏輯、集合、概率、圖論到矩陣無一不包,但不要給它嚇怕,它並非一本充滿公式的書,反而是一本以應用為本的書.因此,它會有一章專講議會議席的分配,早期美國眾議院分配議席的一個矛盾，以及為何沒有一種方法能達致公平,一章講投票的不同方式,以及為何沒有完美的選舉能真正反映集體意願.一章用矩陣講電腦動畫的原理,一章講圖論如何用於追尋病毒的源頭,以及如何決定一項繁雜工程的最短完工時間.

不是有板有眼,沒有大量基本公式,而是用例子來帶出理論,勾起你興趣後,你自自然然會找相關工具書進修,奇就奇在它涉獵雖廣,但條理清晰,好像講混沌理論的基石－碎型(Fractals),雖只有三言兩語，卻是我所見過的最清楚解釋，竟比看混沌宗師Benoit Mandelbrot夫子自道的The Misbehaviour of Markets更加易明，作者文筆的功力及取材的大膽可見一班．

部頭好似很大，因為近一千頁，但其實不少是習作，要看完不用花太多時間，大陸版更抵到無倫，英文版要過百美元，瞓身推薦．

基督教的興起一個社會學家對歷史的再思

2006-02-26T02:42:00.000+08:00

早期基督教其實是如何由12個人開始,在短短300年間激增至3400萬,佔去當時羅馬帝國6成人口?在信徒眼中,這一切當然是神的作為在其中.可是在一個社會學家眼中,卻可能與兩場大瘟疫,及早期教會對女性地位的肯定有關.

<基督教的興起>的作者Rodney Stark,是美國的社會學教授,卻對早期教會為何好生興旺深感好奇,做了大量研究,並試圖用社會學及經濟學的理論來解釋早期教會的獨到之處,內中確有大膽假設之處,但都不是無的放矢,是結合歷史及考古印証的成果.

作者其中一個著眼點,是早期教會的成員組合,與不少人的印象不同,作者並不認為早期教會主要吸納低下階層及外邦人.他認為,最為早期教會所吸引的,往往是教育程度較高的中上階層,以及深受希臘文化影響的猶太人.

作者認為,教育程度較高的人最願意接受新信仰,他們較容易摒棄變得僵化的傳統宗教,接受一些新的思維.再者,有證據顯示,當時不少權貴也歸信基督教,故此儘管對早期基督徒的鎮壓,有時是頗激烈的,但大部份時間羅馬政府卻相當寬容,採取對基督教不聞不問的態度,這讓早期教會有休養生息的機會.

至於居於外邦的猶太人才是教會增長動力的論點,作者認為,這批人對舊約熟悉,特別容易接受與猶太教一脈相承的基督教,好像使徒保羅及司提反便是箇中表表者,另一方面,受外邦文化影響的猶太人,頗受自命謹守律法傳統、居於耶路撒冷的猶太教徒所不齒,這種被歧視的感覺,反而令他們對打著改革猶太教旗號的基督教信仰易生共鳴.

另一股早期教會意想不到的增長動力,卻是分別發生於公元165年及251年的兩次大瘟疫,羅馬帝國大量人口在這兩場瘟疫中死亡,但當時的基督徒本著愛人如己的精神,視死如歸地照顧及守望基督徒與非基督徒病患者,結果令得病的人不致因為失救而死去,此舉不但令基督徒群體的死亡機會減低,而且締造了路人皆見的美好見証,在瘟疫過後的社會秩序重建過程中,基督教頓成為人心所向的新力量.

此外,作者認為基督教對女性地位相對上較尊重,這反映在對離婚的平等處理,與及容許女性出任執事等要務上,較重視女性令女信眾的比例較異教高,估計因與教外人通婚而轉化其另一半歸信的個案更不計其數.再者,基督教對當時盛行的墮胎及殺嬰行為十分反對,故此基督徒的出生率較當時人口萎縮的趨勢背道而馳.在此消彼長下,基督徒的數目越來越顯著.

筆者雖是教徒,但鮮有介紹本身信仰的書藉,其實當中有不少佳作,都有擴闊視野觸動人心的能耐,今次先以這本「世俗化」的基督教研究作頭盤吧.

雲門舞集

2006-02-25T16:06:00.000+08:00

藝術節請來台灣雲門，一次過演齊《行草三部曲》。《行草一》數年前看過，非常好；今年工作未能配合節目時間，只看了《狂草》，林懷民說三部曲中最好的一部《行草二》，反而擦身而過。《狂草》仍然讓人動容，好看！沒有故事，也幾近沒有佈景（行草中使用過的書法投影不見了，餘下的是墨水在特製的、垂直的巨幅白紙上，緩緩流下、拐彎、化開），甚至不用音樂，只有點滴的自然聲響如風聲、海浪聲襯托，把一切還原為純粹的舞蹈；不是用身體寫字，但舞者從習書法而得到啟迪，你可以感受他們「氣」發丹田，遊走四肢，身心合一地舞動，探索和展示了身體的另一種可能性。

我讀過的第一本（記憶中也是至今為止唯一一本）關於舞蹈的書，就是林懷民寫的，十多年前看，已忘掉書名，內容也幾近全忘記，隱約是關於台灣和外國現代舞的散文。

自少瘦弱，使我一向漠視身體，以至迴避身體；近年游水、潛水、跑步以至半推半就地被老婆拉去上舞蹈課，讓我對身體的局限和可能，都多了一些體會。

病和性愛，也許是較容易觸發人們正視身體的事情。多年前看過西西的《哀悼乳房》，寫主角（作者自己？這部書是小說創作抑或是傳記，當年我沒有搞清楚）因為乳癌而發現身體，亦反省病與人的關係，是一部好作品。近日一齣由楊仟嬅及任賢齊擔當主角的電影，靈感應是源自這部書，但電影名字好像不用書的原名，是我們社會涉及身體的忌諱太多，連「乳房」這詞也不可以招搖過市？抑或影片內容因為添加了不少書中沒有的戲劇張力，而要與原著脫離關係？

有關性愛的書，也讀過數本，日後再談。（看官期待吧？！:-P ）

邊寫邊想，平日喜歡讀文、史、哲書籍，科普、政經、美藝統統對胃口，為何有關身體這個切身題材的書，卻讀得這麼少？讀過的十隻手指數哂有餘，想是自幼起有意無意間迴避對身體的想像的災難結果。

這方面的書，各位有沒有好介紹？

无极搞笑版《一个馒头引发的血案》

2006-01-28T16:56:00.000+08:00

An interesting short film have nothing to do with book ... very popular on China internet.

http://media.chinabroadcast.cn/chi/net_radio/entertainment/el060106001.wmv

《一個饅頭引發的血案》：年度最紅名詞誕生記

新華網（ 2006-01-13 09:55:54 ）
來源：國際先驅導報

當年趙本山讓“馬甲”成了網路別名的代稱，今年，一個饅頭所引發的一場萬眾矚目的血案，使得“饅頭”成為了年終網路關注的焦點當年，趙本山一句“脫了馬甲照樣認識你”讓“馬甲”二字成為特定稱謂，作為當年的最紅名詞火了一整年，甚至直到如今還是網路別名的代稱；而如今，在網路江湖中，網友們盛傳著的今年的最火名詞無疑將是“饅頭”。

《無極》剛剛“轟轟烈烈”地在全國公映時，就有看完此片的網友在網上發貼稱：“這個《無極》不如改名叫‘饅頭’吧，所有情節居然是由一個饅頭引出的。”此話一出，眾人紛紛跟帖，表示贊同。估計大家是有料事如神的本領，當時就預感到了“饅頭”將要走紅——這不，新年過了才沒幾天，一個名為《一個饅頭引發的血案》的網路視頻短片就在網路上迅速火爆。

該短片以《無極》為藍本，極盡搞笑之能事。短片的作者署名為“胡戈製作”，大概20分鐘左右，基本上都是剪輯《無極》的電影片段重新編輯而成，畫面製作還算精良，人物配音都模仿片中人的口氣，難得的是，配音者連普通話都說得很不錯，看得出“制片人”花了不少心思。

目前在GOOGLE上進行精確搜索“一個饅頭引發的血案”能夠搜出近萬條記錄——要知道這可是長達九個字的超級精確搜索啊！從搜索結果來看，大部分網路社區和論壇都轉載過這個短片，甚至很多博客也對此片紛紛轉載，我也曾在QQ上接到消息，是網友發來的此片的地址鏈結，這些都充分說明瞭網友對此片的熱愛之情。

這個短片在開始前首先打出字幕“以下看到的東西純屬本人自娛自樂，內容純屬虛構，全是瞎編亂造的”的字樣，然後套用央視品牌欄目《法制在線》節目的形式展開整個故事。整個短片圖文並茂，配樂也搭配得恰到好處，其中到處是精彩之筆——比如深受眾人追捧的“張傾城作為圓環套圓環娛樂城名模，每天工作就是不斷地穿衣服和脫衣服”一段，一邊配上張柏芝在《無極》中迅速穿衣脫衣、穿衣再脫衣的畫面，一邊配上楊鈺瑩的《茶山情歌》，令人噴飯。還有被網友譽為最經典的“張昆侖自首”“張昆侖與郎隊長的同性戀情”“滿神牌喱水廣告”等片段，都令人爆笑到肚痛。

就在大家笑到一片燦爛不亦樂乎的時候，竟然有好事者去諮詢律師此種改編行為是否合法，於是，就有很不解風情的資深律師聲稱該短片侵犯了《無極》的作品完整權。於是，短片的作者胡戈發佈了一個聲明，稱自己“做這個東西純粹是為了個人自娛自樂，同時也是為了練習視頻處理技術……我並沒有四處傳播這個作品。只是由於網友們的相互傳遞，這個作品才慢慢流傳開來……現在網上四處流傳這個東西，這種現象並非是本人的初衷。我的網站的論壇原本是設計成給極少數視頻編輯愛好者進行技術交流的，現在竟然變成了‘饅頭’愛好者的天地。”

這個小小的插曲並沒有打消“饅頭粉”們的積極性，該短片依然從一個QQ流傳到另一個QQ，繼續在網路世界裏迅速躥紅，同時也把“饅頭”二字炒熱了。就在剛才，還有網友發帖子，義正詞嚴地在宣佈：眾所周知，最近有一部電影叫《無極》，遭到大家的口誅筆伐，當然這跟咱饅頭沒關係，但後來，居然有無聊群眾把電影斷章取義地演繹成《一個饅頭引發的血案》，這是對我們饅頭聲譽的嚴重誣衊，是對饅頭家族內部事務的粗暴干涉，我代表饅頭提出強烈抗議——我們饅頭並非引起謝無歡同學人性扭曲的根源，陳滿神女士利用饅頭引誘張傾城小姐的做法是極端無恥的行為，謝無歡同學珍藏的饅頭已經明顯過了保質期……我們饅頭保留採取進一步行動的權利！看來，本年度，饅頭想不紅都不行了……

Confessions of Economic Hitman

2005-12-23T03:26:00.000+08:00

花了幾天看完了的感覺,是外界好像過譽了這本書.這本以揭發美國如何官商勾結,去把第3世界變成美國的附庸國的暢銷書,在美國國際聲望低落兼WTO剛開完會的當下,確實一度令我引頸以待.
作者作為參與者的夫子自道,事實增加了本書的吸引力,可是他提的例子,其實語言學大師兼反美頭號知識份子noam chomsky,早在幾本書內狂鬧過,這書唯一的特點,是他自己是過來人,是幫凶,但講他良心發現的篇幅實在太多,佢一次次講自己因為錢而再埋沒良心,又要靠一個又一個的情人點醒,直到911才下定決心出版此書,雖說是題材敏感有一定危險性,但佢經歷的冷戰時代已過了十多年,總覺得這本書也有點將過氣題材標尾會最後括番筆之嫌疑,抹不去這點假惺惺的感覺.
這本書的最大貢獻,是描寫美國是如何官商勾結,去虐待第三世界,不過作者只是一家工程公司的經濟師,所以若你以為會看到很多黑幕的話,恐怕你會失望.同時,情節又實在太似小說,太多幾十年前的對話,若作者沒有寫日記的習慣,很難想像會有這樣好的記憶.
再者,書中末段講較近期的事件,作者已沒有參與其中,只能以旁觀者或業界的身份來評論,但正如作者所講,他是一個只懂經濟一鱗半爪,而對數學統計絕非專家的「首席經濟師」,所以其觀點未見有獨到之處,所以到書末的內容已跌volt.
總括來講,這本書的題材在很多書已出現過,這本只是多了一點揭密味道而已,有興趣的看也無妨,但不算佳作.

Don't trust medical research without scrutiny

2005-12-15T02:20:00.000+08:00

天下烏鴉一樣黑,香港的生命科技公司早前不也被人踢爆了嗎.

Ghost Story

At Medical Journals, WritersPaid by Industry Play Big Role

Articles Appear Under NameOf Academic Researchers,But They Often Get Help
J&J Receives a Positive 'Spin'

By ANNA WILDE MATHEWS
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
December 13, 2005; Page A1

In 2001, the American Journal of Kidney Diseases published an article that touted the use of synthetic vitamin D. Its author was listed as Alex J. Brown, an associate professor at Washington University in St. Louis.
But recently, that same article was featured as a work sample by a different person: Michael Anello, a free-lance medical writer, who posted a summary of it on his Web site. Mr. Anello says he was hired to write the article by a communications firm working for Abbott Laboratories, which makes a version of the vitamin D product. Dr. Brown agrees he got help in writing but says he redid part of the draft.
It's an example of an open secret in medicine: Many of the articles that appear in scientific journals under the bylines of prominent academics are actually written by ghostwriters in the pay of drug companies. These seemingly objective articles, which doctors around the world use to guide their care of patients, are often part of a marketing campaign by companies to promote a product or play up the condition it treats.
A HIDDEN ROLE?
Now questions about the practice are mounting as medical journals face unprecedented scrutiny of their role as gatekeeper for scientific information. Last week, the New England Journal of Medicine admitted that a 2000 article it published highlighting the advantages of Merck & Co.'s Vioxx painkiller omitted information about heart attacks among patients taking the drug. The journal has said the deletions were made by someone working from a Merck computer. Merck says the heart attacks happened after the study's cutoff date and it did nothing wrong.
The Annals of Internal Medicine tightened its policies on writer disclosure this year after a University of Arizona professor listed as the lead author of a Vioxx article in 2003 said he had little to do with the research in it.
The practice of letting ghostwriters hired by communications firms draft journal articles -- sometimes with acknowledgment, often without -- has served many parties well. Academic scientists can more easily pile up high-profile publications, the main currency of advancement. Journal editors get clearly written articles that look authoritative because of their well-credentialed authors.
Increasingly, though, editors and some academics are stepping forward to criticize the practice, saying it could hurt patients by giving doctors biased information. "Scientific research is not public relations," says Robert Califf, vice chancellor of clinical research at Duke University Medical Center. "If you're a firm hired by a company trying to sell a product, it's an entirely different thing than having an open mind for scientific inquiry. ...What would happen to a PR firm that wrote a paper that said this product stinks? Do you think their contract would be renewed?"
Drug companies say they're providing a service to busy academic researchers, some of whom may not be skilled writers. The companies say they don't intend for their ghostwriters to bias the tone of articles that appear under the researchers' names.
Authors "have to sign off on everything," says Mark Horn, a Pfizer Inc. medical director. "This is properly viewed as a way to more efficiently make the transition from raw data to finished manuscript." Professors who get writing help generally say they give the writers input and check the work carefully.

The criticism of ghostwriting is one of several issues that have put scientific journals on the defensive. Even journal editors acknowledge they have sometimes done a poor job of detecting when articles cherry-pick favorable data to promote a particular drug or treatment. Some health insurers have stopped taking what they read in the journals on faith and are employing analysts to scrutinize articles for negative data that are buried.
It's hard to say how widespread ghostwriting is. An analysis presented at a medical-journal conference in September found that just 10% of articles on studies sponsored by the drug industry that appeared in top medical journals disclosed help from a medical writer. Often the help isn't disclosed. An informal poll of 71 free-lance medical writers by the American Medical Writers Association found that 80% had written at least one manuscript that didn't mention their contributions.
In the case of the vitamin D article, Dr. Brown says Abbott asked him to write it but he didn't have time. He had written an earlier article on the subject. "They said they would have one of their people write it, update my old review article and I would check it," he recalls. Mr. Anello, a Milwaukee writer who studied biochemistry at the University of Wisconsin, says he wrote the new article. "I've done a lot of ghostwriting jobs," he says, adding that sometimes he works closely with the named authors. (See related document excerpts.)
Dr. Brown says he had to rewrite "at least 30% to 40%" of Mr. Anello's draft. In retrospect, he says, he probably should have asked Abbott who Mr. Anello was and "if that person should be acknowledged." Abbott said the article's content was "under the complete discretion" of Dr. Brown and didn't discuss details. The journal's managing editor declined to comment because the journal is under new management.
Following questions from The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Anello removed the article summary from his Web site. Until recently, his online bibliography listed other scientific publications he has written under others' bylines that have yet to be published. The byline on one was "author to be named."
Medical writers frequently have scientific backgrounds. Some work for universities, drug companies or medical-communications firms, while others are free-lancers who typically get $90 to $120 an hour. A communications firm may charge $30,000 or more to have a team of writers, editors and graphic designers put together an article. Some of these firms are part of larger companies in publishing and advertising such as Thomson Corp. and Reed Elsevier PLC.
Elsevier's Excerpta Medica unit helps clients craft publications for prestigious scientific journals. Elsevier itself publishes many such journals, most notably The Lancet. Excerpta Medica says on its Web site that its relationship with its corporate parent's journals "allows us access to editors and editorial boards." (See related excerpt.)
But Sabine Kleinert, an executive editor at The Lancet, says she has never worked with Excerpta Medica and rejects articles that have a marketing spin. "Promotion has a different goal than publishing a legitimate research study," says Dr. Kleinert. She suspects companies sometimes influence medical writers "to write it up in a certain way to make a product sound more efficacious than it is."
A 1999 document that turned up in a lawsuit describes Pfizer's publications strategy for its antidepressant Zoloft. The document, prepared by a unit of ad giant WPP Group, includes 81 different articles proposed for journals. They would promote the drug's use in conditions from panic disorder to pedophilia. (See related excerpt.)
Author 'to Be Determined'
For some articles, the name of the author was listed as "TBD," or "to be determined," even though the article or a draft was listed as already completed. Several of the listed articles ultimately ran in scientific publications -- including one in JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association -- without disclosing the role of outside writers.
In a statement responding to questions from The Wall Street Journal, Pfizer said agencies sometimes "pull together first draft manuscripts" based on information provided by researchers who will serve as authors. It says the academics who were later given credit as lead authors of the "TBD" articles were instrumental in designing the studies that the articles described. The lead authors said they had input into the drafts and approved the final papers.
In recent years, more journal editors have begun demanding that academic authors of studies explain their exact roles and disclose any work by medical writers. The editors say the writers can perform a valuable role so long as it's disclosed to readers.
Writers agree -- and the American Medical Writers Association is pressing for greater acknowledgment of its members' work. But some medical writers say they fear articles with full disclosure are likely to get bounced. Editors "say they want disclosure, but if you do it, they scream, 'ghostwriter!' " says Art Gertel, who oversees medical writing at Beardsworth Consulting Group in Flemington, N.J. "Despite the cries for transparency, the journal editors still feel that there's an element of corruption if a medical writer is paid by a drug company."
Catherine DeAngelis, JAMA's editor in chief, says even a conscientious journal can only go so far in policing academics. "I don't give lie-detector tests to people," Dr. DeAngelis says.
BMJ, a British medical journal, has one of the toughest disclosure policies, but it can get misled. Last year, a note at the end of a BMJ article on painkillers and asthma said the article was "conceived and initiated" by its three academic authors. Lead author Christine Jenkins "performed the analysis and drafted the paper," the note said, adding that the work wasn't funded by a drug company. Dr. Jenkins is a senior researcher at Australia's Woolcock Institute of Medical Research, which has ties to the University of Sydney. (See related excerpts.)
In fact, a medical writer paid by GlaxoSmithKline PLC helped draft the manuscript, the drug company confirms. The analysis was almost identical to an earlier, unpublished one that the company says was "initiated" by that writer. Both analyses concluded that acetaminophen or Tylenol (sold under a different name by GlaxoSmithKline in Britain) was safer for asthma patients than aspirin or other painkillers. (See related excerpts.)
Dr. Jenkins says the structure of her work was "suggested" by the company version but she and the other authors did their own analysis. Dr. Jenkins says she personally "wrote a very large chunk" of the BMJ article and worked closely with the writer. Dr. Jenkins and GlaxoSmithKline declined to give the writer's name.
Dr. Jenkins says she didn't know that the company paid the writer. GlaxoSmithKline didn't pay Dr. Jenkins for the BMJ article, but the company previously paid her to speak at a conference and has given a major grant to the Woolcock Institute.
In a statement, GlaxoSmithKline says the paper "should have disclosed the involvement of a medical writer compensated by GSK." The company says it "regards the omission as a lapse on the part of GSK."
Fiona Godlee, BMJ's editor, says Dr. Jenkins "should have declared the involvement of the medical writer." Dr. Godlee says the journal will print papers that involve a medical writer, but she believes "the actual authors have to be incredibly closely involved."
When articles are ghostwritten by someone paid by a company, the big question is whether the article gets slanted. That's what one former free-lance medical writer alleges she was told to do by a company hired by Johnson & Johnson.
Instruction Sheet
Susanna Dodgson, who holds a doctorate in physiology, says she was hired in 2002 by Excerpta Medica, the Elsevier medical-communications firm, to write an article about J&J's anemia drug Eprex. A J&J unit had sponsored a study measuring whether Eprex patients could do well taking the drug only once a week. The company was facing competition from a rival drug sold by Amgen Inc. that could be given once a week or less.
Dr. Dodgson says she was given an instruction sheet directing her to emphasize the "main message of the study" -- that 79.3% of people with anemia had done well on a once-a-week Eprex dose. In fact, only 63.2% of patients responded well as defined by the original study protocol, according to a report she was provided. That report said the study's goal "could not be reached." Both the instruction sheet and the report were viewed by The Wall Street Journal. The higher figure Dr. Dodgson was asked to highlight used a broader definition of success and excluded patients who dropped out of the trial or didn't adhere to all its rules.
The instructions noted that some patients on large doses didn't seem to do well with the once-weekly administration but warned that this point "has not been discussed with marketing and is not definitive!"
The Eprex study appeared last year in the journal Clinical Nephrology, highlighting the 79.3% figure without mentioning the lower one. The article didn't acknowledge Dr. Dodgson or Excerpta Medica. Dr. Dodgson, who now teaches medical writing at the University of the Sciences in Philadelphia, says she didn't like the Eprex assignment "but I had to earn a living."
The listed lead author, Paul Barré of McGill University in Montreal, says Excerpta Medica did "a lot of the scutwork" but he had "complete freedom" to change its drafts. Dr. Barré says he helped design the study and enroll patients in it. In statements, J&J and Excerpta Medica offered similar explanations of the process. J&J says it regularly uses outside firms "to expedite the development of independent, peer-reviewed publications."
A J&J spokesman said he wasn't familiar with the details of the instruction sheet and referred questions about the highlighted data to Dr. Barré, who said he never interacted with J&J's marketing department and doesn't believe the article was biased. He said the higher figure was "more representative" because those patients followed the study's rules. "Without wanting to distort data, you always want to put the spin that's more positive for the article," Dr. Barré says. "You're more likely to get it published."
Hartmut Malluche, an editor of Clinical Nephrology, declined to comment on details of the article. The journal doesn't require authors to disclose the role of medical writers. But after hearing Dr. Dodgson's story, Dr. Malluche said he would suggest changing the policy. "It's not good if the company has control over the article," he says.
Some academics are protesting ghostwriting. Adriane Fugh-Berman, an associate professor at the Georgetown University School of Medicine, says she received an email last year from a company hired by drug maker AstraZeneca PLC. The email offered her the chance to get credit for writing an article. "... [W]e will forward you a draft for your input so that you would need only to review and then advise us of any changes required," it said.
She says she was shown a draft but declined the offer. Then the Journal of General Internal Medicine asked her to peer-review a version of the same article, submitted by a different researcher. She decided to go public, and wrote about her experience in the journal.
AstraZeneca and the communications firm say it was all a mistake. Dr. Fugh-Berman should have been shown a different article from the one she was later asked to peer-review, they say. The article for peer review was in fact written by the author who submitted it to the journal, they say. AstraZeneca says it "does not support the practice of ghostwriting" and always discloses any support it gives to academic authors.
John Farrar, a pain expert at the University of Pennsylvania, says he once turned down a company's offer to give him a ghostwritten draft about a study on which he had worked. "They said, 'That's unusual,' " Dr. Farrar recalls. He wanted to write the manuscript himself because "you can put your spin on it. ...The way it is written -- the way it's structured -- is yours."

The Ethical Economist

2005-12-14T18:11:00.000+08:00

The Ethical Economist
By Joseph E. Stiglitz
From Foreign Affairs, November/December 2005

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth. BENJAMIN M. FRIEDMAN. : Knopf, 2005, 592 pp.$35.00

GROWTH MAY BE EVERYTHING, BUT IT'S NOT THE ONLY THING

Economists have long been a natural constituency in favor of growth. Since even the richest country has limited resources, the central economic problem is choice: Shall we fund tax cuts for the rich or investment in infrastructure and research and development, war in Iraq or assistance for the poor in developing countries and our own? By providing more total resources, growth should, in theory, make these choices less painful.

The United States, however, has powerfully demonstrated that while growth increases supply, it also raises aspirations. Choices that rich countries have to make thus seem to be no easier than those confronting poor countries, even though the tradeoffs are more heart-wrenching in the case of the poor. Brazil, for example, must choose whether to use its limited health budget to pay full-market price for AIDS drugs; some AIDS victims may live as a result, but people in need of other health care will die, because money that could have been spent on their needs is simply not there. More growth-provided resources, in this instance, mean the difference between life and death.

Still, growth has had its critics. There is a well-developed populist antigrowth literature concerned with, among other things, the impact of growth on the environment and on poverty. In this major work, The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth, Benjamin Friedman takes on such critics, positing that growth has not only obvious economic benefits, but moral benefits as well. He argues that it has the potential to improve the environment, reduce poverty, promote democracy, and make for a more open and tolerant society. But this is not to say that Friedman, a professor of economics at Harvard University, is simply a naive cheerleader for the market economy. His message is nuanced (though not, in some respects, as nuanced as I would have liked), and he realizes that growth has not always brought the promised benefits. The market economy does not automatically guarantee growth, social justice, or even economic efficiency; achieving those ends requires that government play an important role.

LET IT GROW

Historically, economists have questioned whether, at least in the early stages of development, growth is accompanied by societal goods such as greater equality and a better environment. Nobel Prize-winning economist Simon Kuznets argued, based on experiences largely before World War II, that there is an increase in inequality in the early stages of development. Arthur Lewis, another Nobel economist, went further: greater inequality, he argued, is necessary to generate the savings that growth requires. A later generation of economists has posited the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve: the early stages of growth cause environmental degradation, not environmental health.

Kuznets and his descendants held out the prospect that eventually growth would bring more social justice (greater equality, less poverty) and a better environment. But there is nothing inevitable about this -- which means that even if it has been true in the past, it may not be in the future. Inequality did seem to fall in the United States after the Great Depression, but in the last 30 years it has increased enormously. Many forms of pollution have gone down as richer countries have turned their mind to air-quality issues, but greenhouse gas emissions -- with all the dangers they present for global warming -- have continued to increase with economic growth, especially in the United States.

Friedman emphasizes in particular the importance of externalities -- instances in which an economic actor's actions have consequences for others for which that actor does not pay (negative externalities) or for which he is not compensated (positive externalities). Almost everyone recognizes these "market failures" (when markets on their own do not produce efficient outcomes) and their implications, most notably damage to the environment. The United States' production of greenhouse gases imposes staggering costs on others -- especially low-lying islands that will be inundated in the not-too-distant future -- but American firms and consumers do not pay for these costs. Correcting such a market failure does not require subsidies to oil companies to increase oil production (there is no market failure in that direction); it requires more conservation. But externalities imply a more general argument as well: if growth has broad-based societal benefits that go beyond those captured by each individual or firm, then there is a role for government in promoting growth.

Although one of these broader societal benefits is a more open and tolerant society, Friedman explains carefully that the relationship between democracy and growth is two-way: growth affects democracy; democracy affects growth. Both aspects of the relationship are complex and often ambiguous. China -- not particularly democratic or open politically -- has had the most rapid and sustained growth of any country over the past quarter century. Conventional wisdom holds that democracies, since they are more accountable to the "masses," pay more attention to the poor. But China has done more to reduce poverty than most other countries. In recent periods, the United States has seen median real household income fall, and the rich have received huge tax cuts even as poverty has grown.

Unlike so many growth proponents, Friedman realizes that what matters is not simply growth; it is the policies that give rise to it. His work thus provides an important critique of those studies (such as at least one prominent World Bank study by Paul Collier and David Dollar) that correlate growth and poverty reduction or growth and integration into the global economy. For the most part, the policy decision facing governments is not to grow or not to grow or to integrate or not to integrate (though politicians often try to oversimplify in that way). The questions are more specific: whether or not to reduce tariffs, whether or not to liberalize capital markets, whether or not to invest more in research and development, whether or not to spend more on education. And the answers are less clear. Some of these policies may promote growth in ways that will increase poverty; others may promote growth in ways that will reduce it. Some growth strategies may be good for the environment; others may not be.

In short, the debate should not be centered on whether one is in favor of growth or against it. The question should be, are there policies that can promote what might be called moral growth -- growth that is sustainable, that increases living standards not just today but for future generations as well, and that leads to a more tolerant, open society? Also, what can be done to ensure that the benefits of growth are shared equitably, creating a society with more social justice and solidarity rather than one with deep rifts and cleavages of the kind that became so apparent in New Orleans in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina?

The problem is that most of the available empirical evidence comes from cross-country analyses, which are not very informative. Friedman's work provides an important reiteration of recent calls by the World Bank for more micro-level and case-study-based research on the potential tradeoffs between growth and poverty reduction and environmental quality.

THE INCOME SWEEPSTAKES

Friedman ends his book, which covers a delightfully wide range of topics, with an analysis of the kinds of policies that the United States might pursue to achieve his vision of moral growth. This discussion is simultaneously optimistic and pessimistic. The policies are clearly within our grasp. Yet they are a far cry from the policies the United States has been pursuing in recent years -- which have led to a double whammy, simultaneously stifling growth (the most damaging consequences of which may lie years in the future) and creating a society marked by greater social injustice.

Among the developed countries, the United States has been doing well in the growth sweepstakes -- or so you might assume if you focused exclusively on GDP. GDP statistics, however, can be very misleading. They do not really measure how well the country is doing or how much better off its citizens are becoming.

No one would look at just a firm's revenues to assess how well it was doing. Far more relevant is the balance sheet, which shows assets and liabilities. That is also true for a country. Argentina grew rapidly in the early 1990s, mainly as a result of a huge consumption binge financed by international borrowing. But that growth was not sustainable and was not sustained. Similarly, the United States has been borrowing heavily from abroad, at the rate of $2 billion a day. It would be one thing if this were being spent on high-productivity investment. In fact, it has been used to finance increases in consumption and massive tax cuts for upper-income Americans.

Consider the following thought experiment: If you could choose which country to live in but would be assigned an income randomly from within that country's income distribution, would you choose the country with the highest GDP per capita? No. More relevant to that decision is median income (the income level that 50 percent of the population is below and 50 percent is above). As the income distribution becomes increasingly skewed, with an increasing share of the wealth and income in the hands of those at the top, the median falls further and further below the mean. That is why, even as per capita GDP has been increasing in the United States, U.S. median household income has actually been falling.

There are other reasons why someone might not want to look at just per capita GDP. He might worry about his security. What happens if he gets ill? If he loses his job? What happens when he retires? He might worry about crime. He might worry about the quality of his children's schooling. How do his children fare in competition with those who can afford the best schooling that money can buy or with those in countries such as Singapore that offer a first-rate public education? He might worry about the environment. Are there government regulations prohibiting arsenic in the water?

When viewed through these lenses, the United States does not look as good. There are some dimensions in which it is outpacing others -- for instance, it boasts five to ten times the per capita prison population of other advanced industrialized countries and more working hours per week. It also has less job security, worse unemployment insurance, and fewer people covered by health insurance.

To be sure, the American dream still attracts millions from around the world. But some of that attraction may be based on a lingering myth of upward mobility in the United States and an underappreciation of the difficulties that confront the poor. And although there is still no comparing the U.S. standard of living and that of poor countries, these are not the laurels on which one wants to rest.

HALF STEPS AND MISSTEPS

In the debate on the impact of globalization on poverty, Friedman supports the view that even if globalization has been associated with increases in inequality within countries, it has led to reductions in poverty and inequality globally. There are three fundamental flaws in this analysis. The first relates to the definition of poverty. As the World Bank has emphasized at various points, poverty is not just a matter of income; insecurity and voicelessness are also part of its profile. Friedman's analysis completely ignores these other dimensions.

The second criticism relates to the point that what matters is not globalization per se, but specific policies associated with it. Capital market liberalization, for example, entails closer integration of capital markets, especially with respect to short-term capital flows. Modern economic theory and empirical analysis have shown that with imperfect capital markets, such integration may lead to greater economic volatility -- a conclusion that even the International Monetary Fund now supports -- and has a negligible effect on growth. Furthermore, there is ample evidence that the poor bear the brunt of the burden from increased volatility. In short, this particular aspect of economic integration increases poverty without much affecting growth.

The third is that Friedman relies too heavily on studies by Xavier Sala-i-Martin (The Disturbing "Rise" of Global Income Inequality) and Surjit Bhalla (Imagine There's No Country: Poverty, Inequality, and Growth in the Era of Globalization) that have been subject to enormous criticism, without warning the reader of the debate surrounding their numbers. (It should be said that having an article published in a peer-reviewed academic journal and its conclusions parroted in the media does not imply automatic certification of its validity.) The problem is easy to state but hard to rectify: studies of inequality and poverty are based on household surveys of expenditures and income, but the numbers gleaned from those studies tend to be inconsistent with national income accounts, an outcome that suggests massive underreporting in the household surveys. One simple solution to this discrepancy -- the approach largely used in the Sala-i-Martin and Bhalla studies -- is to blow up the numbers from the household surveys. If the average income reported is $3,000 and national income accounts show average incomes to be $4,000, increase everyone's reported income by a third. This immediately reduces the figure for the number of people living in poverty.

However, more sophisticated approaches observe that higher-income individuals are more likely to worry about tax collectors than are the poor. In this view, the shortfall in reporting is largely accounted for by those with higher incomes, and the number for those reportedly living in poverty according to the household surveys is roughly accurate. Assessments of reporting "errors" support this view -- a view that says the world still has a long way to go in meeting its goal of reducing poverty by half by the year 2015. (For a discussion of both sides of this issue, see the forthcoming Debates on the Measurement of Poverty, a volume produced by the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, which I edited along with Paul Segal and Sudhir Anand.)

Meanwhile, Friedman's contention that growth brings with it the virtues of greater openness and tolerance invites these questions: Is the United States, as it becomes richer, becoming more open and tolerant? Do openness and tolerance entail putting equal weight on modern science and pre-Enlightenment views?

Friedman is right, however, in arguing that democracy is less sustainable in poor countries. Thus, if Bush were serious about his commitment to spreading democracy, he would invest more in these countries' development, living up to the agreement made by all the advanced industrialized countries to commit 0.7 percent of their GDP to foreign assistance. The money would make an enormous difference, both for the quality of lives in the developing world and for the prospects of democracy there. Of course, more than just money is required: nothing is more convincing than successful examples of open and tolerant societies that are able to bring the fruits of growth and democracy to all their people. How can the United States claim to provide such an example if it does not take care of its own?

THE MYTH OF THE INVISIBLE HAND

American economists tend to have a strong aversion to advocating government intervention. Their basic presumption is often that markets generally work by themselves and that there are just a few limited instances in which government action is needed to correct market failure; government economic policy, the thinking goes, should include only minimal intervention to ensure economic efficiency.

The intellectual foundations for this presumption are weak. In a market economy with imperfect and asymmetric information and incomplete markets -- which is to say, every market economy -- the reason that Adam Smith's invisible hand is invisible is that it does not exist. Economies are not efficient on their own. This recognition inevitably leads to the conclusion that there is a potentially significant role for government.

Friedman, as a good American economist, begins his discussion by paying homage to the usual strictures, identifying externalities of the kind that warrant government intervention. He goes on to point out the importance of investment, both in physical and human capital, and to note that huge government deficits ("dissaving" on the part of government) are hurting those investments. A perfect market economist would dismiss this claim as nonsense: private savings will eventually increase to offset negative government savings, and if citizens want to consume more and save less now, that is their prerogative -- just because Friedman wants to consume less today does not mean that he should be allowed to impose his preferences on the rest of us. Moreover, such an economist would say that it is not domestic savings that matter in our globalized world, but the global balance of supply and demand for funds.

Perhaps Friedman does not spend time refuting these perspectives because, notwithstanding the significant role they play in academic debates, they are so patently absurd. Of course private saving has not offset public dissaving on a one-to-one basis. Of course domestic saving matters for domestic investment, even in a globalized world. But it is important to grasp the reason why the predictions of the perfect-market models fall so short: market failures go well beyond externalities. Understanding these limitations of the market leads to an understanding of the necessary role of government in promoting growth and making sure that it is the right kind.

There is, for instance, a greater role for government in promoting science and technology than Friedman seems to suggest. A report by the Council of Economic Advisers (conducted when I was its chair) found that the returns on public investment in science and technology were far higher than for private investment in these areas and than for conventional investment in plant and equipment. So, too, with education, especially at a time of such concern with the quality of American schools, and particularly for low-income families. Vouchers -- what amounts to partial privatization of our elementary and secondary educational systems -- have been put forward as a free-market solution to the shortfalls in educational quality. But the advocates of vouchers have never made a convincing case that they can be designed to promote higher educational attainments and greater racial integration across the entire educational system, rather than just for those receiving the vouchers.

Friedman's book is thus an important antidote to the populist antigrowth movement and also to those who say that the free market is all we need. It joins a growing chorus calling for a change in the direction of U.S. economic policy -- toward achieving growth that is stronger and more sustainable. Whether or not you agree with Friedman's particular policy prescriptions, this much is clear: this kind of reasoned analysis is precisely what is necessary to put the United States back on the right track.

Journalism Primers: Covering Oil: A Reporter's Guide to Energy and Development

2005-12-07T03:56:00.000+08:00

Trying to find Joseph Stiglitz's new book 'Fair trade for all', but stumble upon this freebie instead. Sound interesting

Journalism Primers: Covering Oil: A Reporter's Guide to Energy and Development
OSI and IPD
Aug 04, 2005

For the vast majority of people in most resource-rich countries, natural wealth does not translate into prosperity, but instead leads to environmental and economic devastation, and hampers democratic reform.Only an informed public can hold leaders to account. Yet local reporting often overlooks the legal, economic, and environmental implications of resource extraction.

Covering Oil: A Reporter's Guide to Energy and Development, a collaborative work of the Open Society Institute's Revenue Watch program and the Initiative for Policy Dialogue, aims to encourage rigorous reporting on these issues by providing practical information about the petroleum industry and the impact of resource wealth on a producing country."Journalists can play a crucial role in educating people in resource-rich countries on how the petroleum industry affects their lives," said Julie McCarthy, the acting director of Revenue Watch. "But those reporters need access to information in order to know what questions to ask."The guidebook comes out of a series of organized workshops for journalists in the oil-exporting countries of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Nigeria, during which participants expressed a need for more information to help them understand the issues surrounding resource exploitation.

In response to these consultative workshops, Covering Oil outlines the fundamentals of petroleum contracts, provides a glossary of relevant economic theory, and presents case studies of major public policy issues.Covering Oil is the second in a series of Revenue Watch guidebooks targeting different audiences involved in the promotion of transparency and democratic accountability. The first, Follow the Money: A Guide to Monitoring Budgets and Oil and Gas Revenues, was aimed at nongovernmental organizations. Both reports can be found at: www.revenuewatch.org

Mourning the management guru

2005-11-18T02:16:00.000+08:00

Peter Drucker

Trusting the teacher in the grey-flannel suit
Nov 17th 2005
From The Economist print edition

The one management thinker every educated person should read

ON NOVEMBER 11th, a few days short of his 96th birthday, Peter Drucker died. The most important management thinker of the past century, he wrote about 40 books (the last, “The Effective Executive in Action” will be published in January) and thousands of articles. He was a guru to the world's corporate elite, not just in his native Europe and his adoptive America, but also in Japan and the developing world (one devoted South Korean businessman even changed his first name to Mr Drucker). And he never rested in his mission to persuade the world that management matters—that, in his own rather portentous formula, “Management is the organ of institutions...the organ that converts a mob into an organisation, and human efforts into performance.”
Did he succeed? The range of his influence was extraordinary. George Bush is a devotee of Mr Drucker's idea of “management by objectives”. (“I had read Peter Drucker,” Karl Rove once told the Atlantic Monthly, “but I'd never seen Drucker until I saw Bush in action.”) Newt Gingrich mentions him in almost every speech. Mr Drucker helped to inspire privatisation—an idea that in the 1980s galvanised Britain's sclerotic economy.
He changed the course of thousands of businesses. He spawned two huge revolutions at General Electric—first when GE followed the radical decentralisation he preached in the 1950s, and again in the 1980s when Jack Welch rebuilt the company around Mr Drucker's belief that it should be first or second in a line of business, or else get out. Yet Mr Drucker is also cited as a muse by both the Salvation Army and the modern mega-church movement. Wherever people grapple with tricky management problems, from big organisations to small ones, from the public sector to the private, and increasingly in the voluntary sector, you can find Mr Drucker's fingerprints.
This is not to say that Mr Drucker was invariably right—or even always sensible. He was given to making sweeping statements that sometimes turned out to be nonsense. He argued, for example, that the great American research universities are “failures” that would soon become “relics”—odd for a man who made so much of the knowledge economy. He was slow to shift his attention from big firms to entrepreneurial start-ups. But he was much more often right than wrong. And even when he was wrong he had a way of being thought-provoking.
The man who became famous as an American management thinker was really a Viennese Jewish intellectual. The author of this article once visited him in his home in Claremont, California—a modest affair when set beside the mansions of most management gurus. His choice of a restaurant for lunch was more modest still. But as Mr Drucker talked it was easy to forget about the giant plastic wagon wheels that decorated the walls or even the execrable food. He talked with his deep, heavy Teutonic accent about meeting Sigmund Freud (as a boy), John Maynard Keynes and Ludwig Wittgenstein (as a student at Cambridge). He said that he liked to keep his mind fresh by taking up a new subject every three or four years (he was heavily immersed in early medieval Paris at the time). The overall effect was rather like listening to Isaiah Berlin channelled by Henry Kissinger.
Mr Drucker was born in 1909 in the Austrian upper middle class—his father was a government official—and educated in Vienna and Germany. He earned a doctorate in international and public law from Frankfurt university in 1931. In normal times this would have led to a distinguished, if predictable, academic career. But those were not normal times—and Mr Drucker was not a man to bow down to the confines of academic disciplines. He spent his 20s trying to avoid Adolf Hitler and drifting among a number of jobs, including banking, consultancy, academic law and journalism (his journalistic career included a spell as the acting editor of a women's page).
Along the way, he became increasingly convinced that the best hope for saving civilisation from barbarism lay in the humdrum science of management. He was too sensitive to the thinness of the crust of civilisation to share the classic liberal faith in the market, but too clear-sighted to embrace the growing fashion for big-government solutions. The man in the grey-flannel suit held out more hope for mankind than either the hidden hand or the gentleman in Whitehall.
He finally found a home in American academia, teaching politics, philosophy and economics. But it was not exactly a happy home. His first two books—“The End of Economic Man” (1939) and “The Future of Industrial Man” (1942)—had their admirers, including Winston Churchill, but they annoyed academic critics by ranging so widely over so many different subjects. This might have sealed his fate as just another discontented academic maverick. But “The Future of Industrial Man” attracted the attention of General Motors—then the world's biggest company—with its passionate insistence that companies had a social dimension as well as an economic purpose.
The car company invited Mr Drucker to paint its portrait—and offered him unique access to GMers from Alfred Sloan down. The resulting book—“The Concept of the Corporation”—changed the young man's life. The book not only became an instant bestseller, in Japan as well as in America, remaining in print ever since. It also helped to create a management fashion for decentralisation. By the 1980s, about three-quarters of American companies had adopted a decentralised model. Mr Drucker later boasted that the book “had an immediate impact on American business, on public service institutions, on government agencies—and none on General Motors.” Mr Drucker the management guru had been born.

Knowledge workers
The two most interesting arguments in “The Concept of the Corporation” actually had little to do with the decentralisation fad. They were to dominate his work.
The first had to do with “empowering” workers. Mr Drucker believed in treating workers as resources rather than just as costs. He was a harsh critic of the assembly-line system of production that then dominated the manufacturing sector—partly because assembly lines moved at the speed of the slowest and partly because they failed to engage the creativity of individual workers. He was equally scathing of managers who simply regarded companies as a way of generating short-term profits. In the late 1990s he turned into one of America's leading critics of soaring executive pay, warning that “in the next economic downturn, there will be an outbreak of bitterness and contempt for the super-corporate chieftains who pay themselves millions.”
The second argument had to do with the rise of knowledge workers. Mr Drucker argued that the world is moving from an “economy of goods” to an economy of “knowledge”—and from a society dominated by an industrial proletariat to one dominated by brain workers. He insisted that this had profound implications for both managers and politicians. Managers had to stop treating workers like cogs in a huge inhuman machine—the idea at the heart of Frederick Taylor's stopwatch management—and start treating them as brain workers. In turn, politicians had to realise that knowledge, and hence education, was the single most important resource for any advanced society.
Yet Mr Drucker also thought that this economy had implications for knowledge workers themselves. They had to come to terms with the fact that they were neither “bosses” nor “workers”, but something in between: entrepreneurs who had responsibility for developing their most important resource, brainpower, and who also needed to take more control of their own careers, including their pension plans.
All this sounds as if Mr Drucker was an exponent of the airy-fairy human-relations school of management. But there was also a “hard” side to his work. Mr Drucker was responsible for inventing one of the rational school of management's most successful products—“management by objectives” (this is the one that Mr Bush still follows).
In one of his most substantial works, “The Practice of Management” (1954), he emphasised the importance of managers and corporations setting clear long-term objectives and then translating those long-term objectives into more immediate goals. He argued that firms should have an elite corps of general managers, who set these long-term objectives, and then a group of more specialised managers.
For his critics (who had a point), this was a retreat from his earlier emphasis on the soft side of management. For Mr Drucker it was all perfectly consistent: if you rely too much on empowerment you risk anarchy, whereas if you rely too much on command-and-control you sacrifice creativity. The trick is for managers to set long-term goals, but then allow their employees to work out ways of achieving those goals.
From early on, Mr Drucker tried to apply his interest in management in a universal way. For instance, he realised that America has no monopoly on management wisdom. This might not sound like much of an insight today, in the light of the Asian miracles. But in 1950s America—when most American managers dismissed Japan as a maker of cheap knickknacks and the rest of Asia as an irrelevance—it was a revelation.
Mr Drucker used his newfound fame in Japan to flesh out his suspicion that Japan was turning itself into an economic powerhouse. (As a sideline he managed to develop a fine collection of Japanese art.) He wrote extensively about Japanese management techniques long before they became popular in America in the 1980s. But he also exported many American techniques to a country that was desperate to learn from Uncle Sam.

More than just a business thinker
If Mr Drucker helped make management a global industry, he also helped push it beyond its business base. He was emphatically a management thinker, not just a business one. He believed that management is “the defining organ of all modern institutions”, not just corporations; and the management school that bears his name at Claremont College recruits a third of its students from outside the business world.
In the public sector, as well as championing privatisation, he helped to inspire the reinventing-government movement that Al Gore promoted with some success in the 1990s. That movement has gone into eclipse at the federal level, but is still forging ahead in some states, such as Massachusetts, where Mitt Romney, the governor, is a powerful supporter.
Some of Mr Drucker's most innovative work was with voluntary and religious institutions (indeed, Mr Bush singled out his contribution to civil institutions when he awarded him the presidential medal of freedom three years ago). Mr Drucker told his clients, who included the American Red Cross and the Girl Scouts of America, that they needed to think more like businesses—albeit businesses that dealt in “changed lives” rather than in maximising profits. Their donors, he warned, would increasingly judge them not on the goodness of their intentions, but on the basis of their results.
One perhaps unexpected example of Druckerism is the modern mega-church movement. He suggested to evangelical pastors that they create a more customer-friendly environment (hold back on the overt religious symbolism and provide plenty of facilities). Bill Hybels, the pastor of the 17,000-strong Willow Creek Community Church in South Barrington, Illinois, has a quotation from Mr Drucker hanging outside his office: “What is our business? Who is our customer? What does the customer consider value?”
Mr Drucker went further than just applying business techniques to managing voluntary organisations. He believed that such entities have many lessons to teach business corporations. They are often much better at engaging the enthusiasm of their volunteers—and they are also better at turning their “customers” into “marketers” for their organisation. These days, business organisations have as much to learn from churches as churches have to learn from them.

What he got wrong
There are three persistent criticisms of Mr Drucker's work. The first is that he was never as good on small organisations—particularly entrepreneurial start-ups—as he was on big ones. “The Concept of the Corporation” was in many ways a fanfare to big organisations: “We know today that in modern industrial production, particularly in modern mass production,” Mr Drucker opined, “the small unit is not only inefficient, it cannot produce at all.” The book helped to launch the “big organisation boom” that dominated business thinking for the next 20 years.
The second criticism is that Mr Drucker's enthusiasm for management by objectives helped to lead business down a dead end. Most of today's best organisations have abandoned this idea—at least in the mechanistic form that it rapidly assumed. They prefer to allow ideas—including ideas for long-term strategies—to bubble up from the bottom and middle of the organisations rather than being imposed from on high. And they tend to eschew the complex management structures of the management-by-objectives era. The reason is that top management is often cut off from the people who know both their markets and their products best (a criticism that certainly rings true in Mr Bush's White House, though that is another story).
Third, Mr Drucker is criticised for being a maverick in the management world—and a maverick who has increasingly been left behind by the increasing rigour of his chosen field. He taught in tiny Claremont rather than at Harvard or Stanford. He never grappled with the rigours of quantitative techniques. There is no single area of academic management theory that he made his own—as Michael Porter did with strategy and Theodore Levitt did with marketing. He would throw out a highly provocative idea—such as the idea that the West has entered a post-capitalist society, thanks to the importance of pension funds—without really clarifying his terms or tying up his arguments.
There is some truth in the first two arguments. Mr Drucker never wrote anything as good as “The Concept of the Corporation” on entrepreneurial start-ups. This is odd, given his personality: this prophet of the “age of organisations” was a quintessential individualist who was happiest ploughing his own furrow. (One of his favourite sayings was, “One either meets or one works.”) It is also remarkable since he spent so much of his life in southern California—a hotbed of individualism and entrepreneurialism that helped to produce the small-business revolution of the 1980s. Mr Drucker's work on management by objectives sits uneasily with his earlier (and later) writing on the importance of knowledge workers and self-directed teams.
But the third argument—that he was too much of a maverick—is both short-sighted and unfair. It is short-sighted because it ignores Mr Drucker's pioneering role in creating the modern profession of management. He produced one of the first systematic studies of a big company. He pioneered the idea that ideas can help galvanise companies. And he helped to make management fashionable with a constant stream of popular writing. It may be over-egging things to claim that Mr Drucker was “the man who invented management”. But he certainly made a unique contribution to the development of the subject.
It is true that he cannot be put into any neat academic pigeonhole: he liked to refer to himself as a “social ecologist” rather than a management theorist, still less a management guru (he once quipped that journalists use the word “guru” only because “charlatan” is too long for a headline). It is true that he eschewed the system-building of some of his fellow academics. And he preferred reading Jane Austen to doing multivariate analysis.
But system-building often produces castles in the air rather than enduring insights. (It is notable that Mr Drucker's most systematic work—on management by objectives—has lasted least well.) Mr Drucker made up for his lack of system with a stream of insights on an extraordinary range of subjects: he was one of the first people to predict, back in the 1950s, that computers would revolutionise business, for example. His reading of history enabled him to see through the fog that clouds less learned minds: he liked to puncture breathless talk of the new age of globalisation by pointing out that companies such as Fiat (founded in 1899) and Siemens (founded in 1847) produced more abroad than at home almost as soon as they got off the ground.
These days management theory is increasingly dominated by academic clones who produce papers on minute subjects in unreadable prose. That certainly does not apply to a man who claimed that the academic course that most influenced him was on, of all things, admiralty law.

The legacy
The biggest problem with evaluating Mr Drucker's influence is that so many of his ideas have passed into conventional wisdom—in other words, that he is the victim of his own success. His writings on the importance of knowledge workers and empowerment may sound a little banal today. But they certainly weren't banal when he first dreamed them up in the 1940s, or when they were first put in to practice in the Anglo-Saxon world in the 1980s. Remember the way that many British bosses scoffed when Japanese carmakers set up factories in Britain and told their Geordie workers that they had to think as well as rivet, weld and hammer?
Moreover, Mr Drucker continued to produce new ideas up until his 90s. His work on the management of voluntary organisations—particularly religious organisations—remained at the cutting edge. America's business academics have only just begun to look seriously at the organisational transformation that he helped to pioneer.
Mr Drucker has a way of getting the last word. Richard Nixon once began a pep talk to the Department of Health, Education and Welfare with a side-swipe at him. “Mr Drucker says that modern government can do only two things well: wage war and inflate the currency. It's the aim of my administration to prove Mr Drucker wrong.” In retrospect, Mr Nixon failed even at those potentially achievable tasks.
Asked which management books he paid attention to, Bill Gates once replied, “Well, Drucker of course,” before citing a few lesser mortals. Management theory has not evolved into the world's most rigorous or enticing intellectual discipline. But in Peter Drucker it at least found a champion whom every educated person should take the trouble to read.

Blog guide from wsj

2005-11-16T12:54:00.000+08:00

What the In-Crowd Knows
From Hollywood to Wall Street, Our Guide to the BlogsInsiders Read to Stay Current
November 16, 2005

The music industry has one, Wall Street bankers have several and even CPAs have come around.
No self-respecting industry these days is without a must-read blog. Although they vary wildly on fine points like accuracy, they are now so widely read that it's assumed anybody in the business is up to speed on the latest postings. For outsiders, they are also a window into the inner workings, preoccupations and gossip of fields ranging from real estate to mergers and acquisitions.
People who follow electronics got an early peek at a key new product when Engadget posted photos of Microsoft Corp.'s XBox 360 videogame console a week ahead of its debut. TV executives keep tabs on which networks are ordering and canceling shows. Doctors and others in health care can link to the latest news and commentary on drug marketing. Reporters and media watchers turn to Jim Romenesko, who runs a blog on the Poynter Institute's Web site.
There are three basic varieties of blogs: those that post links to other sources, those that compile news and articles, and those that provide a forum for opinions and commentary. Some do one of these things or mix all three.
Here are some of the most influential blogs across industries ranging from publishing and finance to health care and Hollywood, put together by The Wall Street Journal's beat reporters in these areas.
Real Estate
Curbed.com
This blog attempts to deflate real-estate hype. Updated roughly a half dozen times a day, the site, run by former magazine editor Lockhart Steele, takes on overpriced condo listings, pokes fun at the language brokers use to pump up properties, and links to the relevant news from mainstream press and other blogs. A running feature called PriceChopper highlights grossly overpriced apartments and takes credit when the asking price drops. Another fixture called BubbleWatch links to optimistic market forecasts. Curbed's major drawback is its New York-centric coverage and its obsession with celebrity and luxury properties. Recent posts on projects in Los Angeles and Boston, however, indicate the site's willingness to acknowledge there is a real estate world outside the Big Apple.
---- Alex Frangos
Theslatinreport.com
A sober alternative to Curbed, the Slatin Report delivers all-original commentary and analysis on the world of commercial real estate. The brainchild of veteran real-estate journalist Peter Slatin, the site weighs in on real-estate investment trusts, industry dealmakers, and design and architecture. A recent article pointed out how Donald Trump could get locked out of profits for decades in a complicated transfer of a property he's involved in. Mr. Trump disputed the characterization as "totally false." One issue with the site is that the posts are sporadic and irregular. But users can sign up for an email alert when new items appear.
---- Alex Frangos
Advertising
adrants.com
This blog is one of the best ways to keep up on Madison Avenue's ups and downs. Published by Steve Hall, a former ad-agency employee, adrants covers topics ranging from urinal advertising to the news of the day, all with a bemused tone. The site also provides links to breaking-news stories featured by other Web publications. John Osborn, president and chief executive of the New York office of Omnicom Group's BBDO Worldwide, is a fan.
---- Brian Steinberg
Wall Street
www.footnoted.org
This site systematically takes apart proxy statements, quarterlies and news releases, offering opinions and asking questions about management compensation and other items tucked away in the small print. Free-lance journalist Michelle Leder, who runs the site, hands out gold stars on Fridays to companies with clear disclosures and points out oddities buried in the footnotes, like sudden changes to stock-option plans, or when loan issuer Dollar Financial Corp. recently forgave the interest on a loan to its own chief executive. (Dollar Financial didn't return calls seeking comment.) Newer entries have included one about Lisa Marie Presley's evolving stake in a company called CKX Inc.
---- Diya Gullapalli
jeffmatthewsisnotmakingthisup.blogspot.com
A popular opinion and news-analysis blog among traders and institutional investors written by Jeff Matthews, head of the hedge fund Ram Partners in Greenwich, Conn. Mr. Matthews, a mostly value-oriented investor, isn't afraid to rile up the vocal trading community by commenting on closely watched stocks such as Overstock.com Inc., dissecting the chief executives latest public comments on his blog. While he occasionally makes grand market pronouncements -- he recently declared that the real-estate market had peaked -- he is admired for also supporting any such prophetic dictums. The blog skewers boilerplate financial filings, and features analysis on everything from Google Inc. (he's a fan) to the Hawaiian Public Utilities Commission.
---- Diya Gullapalli
www.deallawyers.com/blog
This blog from deallawyers.com, an educational group that offers research on legal issues surrounding deal activity, dissects M&A flow based on both obscure and widely known legal issues. It evaluates private-equity involvement, recent arbitrations, cross-border transactions and other issues for companies like Toys 'R' Us Inc. and Six Flags Inc. It also examines deal technicalities like lock-ups, stapled financings and M&A accounting. Downsides to the blog, though, are that it's written with a lot of jargon and postings can be a little sparse.
---- Diya Gullapalli
Health Care
pharmamarketingblog.com
The site focuses on how drug companies can get accurate and trustworthy information to doctors and consumers. John Mack, publisher of the monthly online newsletter Pharma Marketing News, started his blog in January 2005. He offers commentary on news events and is often critical of the industry's focus on blockbuster drugs and what Mr. Mack views as unethical or misguided marketing. Among his pet peeves is erectile-dysfunction advertising, which he believes focuses too heavily on younger men and libido-enhancing promises while failing to educate consumers about the disease. The site lambastes pharma companies for ads that foster a "magic pill solution preference among Americans," while rarely mentioning changes in lifestyle or diet that will help reduce risks such as cardiovascular disease. But he's quick to praise efforts that address the industry's credibility problem with consumers, such as Johnson & Johnson's new TV and print campaigns that he says put drug risks on more-equal footing with drug benefits.
---- Laura Landro
www.thehealthcareblog.com
This blog, billed as "Everything You Always Wanted to Know About the Health Care System, But Were Afraid to Ask," is published by Matthew Holt, a consultant and publisher of an email digest of health-care news for executives and hospital administrators. Mr. Holt uses his blog to draw attention to health-policy articles in other publications and on other blogs, and share his thoughts about Medicare policy, health insurers, electronic medical records and doctors. There have been frequent posts dissecting the new Medicare law and highlighting waste and fraud in the system. The site is currently running a contest for readers to come up with solutions for fixing the health-care system -- in 250 words or less.
---- Laura Landro
Music
The Lefsetz Letter started in 1986 as a photocopied tip sheet for music-industry executives. Today Bob Lefsetz, a former artist-management executive, posts his opinions on everything to do with the music business. Mr. Lefsetz offers wide-ranging, stream-of-consciousness rants -- often blasted out multiple times daily. They include ruminations on everything from the industry's strategy of suing peer-to-peer network users (futile), to U2's recent guest appearance on HBO's "Entourage" (like a married man flaunting a girlfriend on the side, "just to be able to impress his buddies") to Rod Stewart fans ("so old and so out of it that they'll buy ANYTHING with his name on it. As long as it doesn't disrupt their cocktail parties.") Sign up for email list at http://lefsetz.com, or on the Web at: rhino.com/rzine/columnists/lefsetz/index.lasso
---- Ethan Smith
Hollywood
defamer.com
This blog compiles entertainment news and adds a heavy dose of snarky opinion. Agents, producers, studio executives and other power players in Hollywood read it religiously -- largely because it lavishes attention on them. (The site's motto is: "LA is the world's cultural capital. Defamer is the gossip rag it deserves.") A recent entry on CBS Chairman Leslie Moonves describes him as "a future galactic despot who will one day use his humble position as head of a successful network to hold the entire universe in his incredibly charismatic sway." (CBS declined to respond to the quote.) The site, launched last year by Gawker Media, keeps tabs on which networks have ordered or canceled which shows and closely monitors movie box-office tallies, along with the latest peccadilloes of major stars.
---- Brooks Barnes
Television
mediabistro.com/tvnewser
Focused on TV news, the blog presents snippets from top stories of the day and is constantly updated with items ranging from major network decisions -- NBC's recent move to make its entire flagship "Nightly News" broadcast free on the Internet, for example -- to gossip about behind-the-scenes fighting at the morning news shows. TV Newser, which is hosted by the journalism-related Web site Media Bistro, also includes job listings and detailed parsing of ratings with a heavy focus on cable news channels. Towson University student Brian Stelter says he founded the site last year after being inspired by the blanket coverage the cable networks gave the start of the 2003 Iraq war.
---- Brooks Barnes
Publishing
publishersmarketplace.com
Run by Michael Cader, a former book packager, this paid site (cost: $20 a month) contains a selection of print and Web-based book-publishing stories, as well as first-person editorializing. Mr. Calder gets information from sources including agents, editors, publicists, authors, and licensees. The site lists the latest book proposals to be sold, including in some cases a sense of what price they fetched. It's also widely used to get in touch with people in the industry -- the agent who represents a particular author, for example. Mr. Cader has an arch tone, and is quick to jump on news involving Internet companies such as Google Inc. or Amazon.com Inc. But he sometimes is too reliant on industry handouts, such as this recent posting: "Hyperion Plans 'Lost' Book."
---- Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg
bookslut.com
This daily blog provides links to reviews and news, along with sharp commentary. A recent posting noted that the New Orleans Public Library had reopened -- but only after firing 90% of its staff. Elsewhere, after romance publisher Harlequin Enterprises Ltd. said it plans to add novels with Nascar storylines, the site posted this prediction: "Look for 'Naked Came the Pit Crew' early next spring." The site is published by Jessa Crispin, a former nonprofit fund-raiser.
---- Jeffrey A. Trachtenberg
Theater
broadwaystars.com
A lot of fan sites and trade publications operate Web sites dedicated to theater news, but the big gun is BroadwayStars. Filled with an exhaustive list of daily theater news -- some stories are culled from obscure regional alternative publications -- the site also contains links to various discussion boards. (Things can get catty in a hurry.) A popular feature here is a list of Broadway shows that have been discussed by producers in news articles but haven't been formally announced, such as a stage production of Walt Disney Co.'s "The Little Mermaid." On the downside, the site, operated by a company called 2die4 Productions of Irvington, N.Y., is cluttered -- there's even a five-day weather forecast for top theater cities.
---- Brooks Barnes
Taxes
taxanalysts.com
This site, run by Tax Analysts, a nonprofit publisher based in Arlington, Va., offers a handy way to catch up on breaking news. The site also has interesting historical material, such as copies of actual federal income-tax returns filed by presidents from Franklin D. Roosevelt to George W. Bush. (Look under "Tax History.") There also are transcripts of conferences organized by Tax Analysts, such as one last month on the subject: "Can or should you have tax reform without increasing taxes?" Tax Analysts also offers several subscription-only publications, such as Tax Notes, an influential weekly.
---- Tom Herman
taxprof.typepad.com
The TaxProf Blog compiles the latest tax-news articles, legislation, academic papers and updates from other tax blogs. Launched last year -- on April 15 -- by University of Cincinnati College of Law Professor Paul L. Caron, the site has gained a wide following among tax professionals, academics and policy-makers. It contains links to state, federal and international tax information and even has a section called "Celebrity Tax Lore" which links to stories on the "tax issues of the rich and famous," says Mr. Caron, as well as other tax-related trivia and cartoons. A recent posting, for instance, links to articles about teenage golfer Michelle Wie receiving her first tax form.
---- Rachel Emma Silverman
Economics
bigpicture.typepad.com
This blog from Barry Ritholtz, chief market strategist at money-management firm Maxim Group LLC, mixes straight market commentary with Mr. Ritholtz's musings on the inner workings of glamorous industries such as music, film and technology. Mr. Ritholtz mulls over interest rates, gross domestic product and bond markets, complete with charts and links to news sites. Then, on separate pages, he ruminates on movie box-office slumps, TiVo and music file-sharing. Contemplation takes many forms, including quotes and essays. He evaluates news like the latest on the avian flu and inserts eye-catching charts and graphics to make his point.
---- Diya Gullapalli
Accounting
www.accountingobserver.com/blog/
This opinion and news analysis blog is run by Jack Ciesielski, a certified public accountant who owns the investment-research firm R.G. Associates in Baltimore. Mr. Ciesielski has served on several accounting rule-making and policy advisory boards. He uses his blog, which he updates roughly once a week, to rant about the latest corporate troubles, such as Delphi Corp.'s recent accounting mess. Other frequent topics include stock-option expensing, Sarbanes-Oxley compliance and lease restatements. Recently, Mr. Ciesielski has taken up troubled auto companies as discussion fodder, with a posting last month called "Dana in the Dumps," referring to auto-parts maker Dana Corp.'s latest restatements.
---- Diya Gullapalli
Insurance
www.insurancescrawl.com
This blog spells out legal issues affecting property-casualty insurers, and keeps editorializing to a minimum. The person behind the site is Marc Mayerson, a Harvard Law School-trained lawyer with Spriggs & Hollingsworth in Washington, D.C. Unlike other more light-hearted blogs, these postings are written with some wonky weight -- recent entries dissected court decisions against State Farm Insurance Cos. and the nuances of liability issues in certain insurance policies. Mr. Mayerson keeps up with hurricane-related insurance issues, sometimes even discussing his own insurance policy as a reference point.
---- Diya Gullapalli
Digital Content
Paidcontent.org
This blog tracks the latest developments from a range of businesses interested in delivering entertainment, news and other services to consumers in new ways (through mobile phones, for example). It reports its own news, offers commentary and draws attention to articles in other publications. The site is run by Rafat Ali and Staci Kramer. This month, Mr. Ali wrote that pricing the new Sanyo Mobile ESPN phone at $500 was "suicide, pure and simple." (ESPN said the price listed for the phone was incorrect on the blog site, omitting a $100 rebate, and that the blog entry didn't describe the phone's range of features.) The blog regularly breaks news, in September scooping mainstream media outlets including The Wall Street Journal on Viacom Inc.'s deal to acquire IFilm. Fans include Jim Bankoff, executive vice president for programming at AOL, and Liz Schimel, senior vice president for content development at Comcast Corp.
---- Sarah McBride
Currencies
www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini
This blog tracks monetary issues, among others, through a macroeconomic lens. It offers the views of Nouriel Roubini and is affiliated with the subscription-based site, Roubini Global Economics Service, a New York-based economics research group. Entries take a global view on currency swings and appear every few days. Recent meditations have included postings on Brazil issuing long-term local-currency-denominated bonds in the international market. Mr. Roubini also recently examined asset bubbles.

Mossberg's Favorite Tech Blogs
By WALTER S. MOSSBERG
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
November 16, 2005

Every day, I scan dozens of blogs, on politics, sports, news, and, of course, personal technology -- the topic I write about. Here are some of my favorite tech blogs. Like all blogs, these range from mere roundups of items elsewhere on the Web to outpourings of personal opinion. Some are more like journals, others lean more toward traditional Web sites. I don't vouch for their accuracy or thoroughness, but I do find them interesting and useful.
There are lots of blogs and Web sites aimed at general gadget lovers, but I recommend Engadget, at engadget.com. It's not deep on analysis or testing, but it rounds up most of the new stuff and surrounds it with short, snappy patter.
For serious techies, who are deep in the weeds on all sorts of technical issues and the social and political trends surrounding them, the must-read blog is Slashdot, at slashdot.org. Another excellent blog on tech issues and also politics is by Dan Gillmor, a former newspaper columnist and champion of "grass-roots journalism." You can read Dan at bayosphere.com/blog/dangillmor.
Some blogs focus on specific products. My favorite blog on cellphones is Phone Scoop, at phonescoop.com. My favorite blog on digital cameras is the Digital Camera Resource Page, at dcresource.com.
The iPod, of course, is a gadget with its own massive cult, so there are numerous blogs for iPod lovers. In my view, the best of these is iLounge, at ilounge.com. It includes beginner's guides and in-depth reviews as well as news.
Some blogs are excellent resources for following specific tech companies.
For instance, if you care about Google, and the search business in general, there are two blogs to follow. One is John Battelle's Searchblog, at battellemedia.com. The other is the Search Engine Watch blog, by search guru Danny Sullivan, at blog.searchenginewatch.com/blog/.
For Microsoft-watchers, a fascinating blog -- by a Microsoft employee named Robert Scoble -- is Scobleizer, at scobleizer.wordpress.com. Another excellent blog on the software giant is Microsoft Monitor, at microsoftmonitor.com. It's by Joe Wilcox, an analyst at Jupitermedia and a former tech journalist.
Then there are the blogs about Apple, the tech company that is so secretive, yet so closely watched, that it attracts rumors, gossip and commentary like flies. There are dozens of blogs and Web sites about Apple and its products, far more than about much larger companies like Microsoft or Dell.
Apple watchers should check out Think Secret, at thinksecret.com; MacDailyNews, at macdailynews.com; AppleInsider, at appleinsider.com; and the Unofficial Apple Weblog, at tuaw.com. And no Apple cultist should overlook the blog that makes fun of all the other rumor sites, Crazy Apple Rumors, at crazyapplerumors.com.

Boy Genius: Karl Rove, The Architect Of George W. Bush's Remarkable Political Triumphs

2005-11-12T00:32:00.000+08:00

"Who run this place? The anatomy of Britain in the 21st century" by Anthony Sampson is good. It provides a good description of UK political landscape.

I'm reading "Boy Genius: Karl Rove, The Architect Of George W. Bush's Remarkable Political Triumphs" by Carl M. Cannon, Lou Dubose, Jan Reid. Interesting reading.

Karl Roves is THE campaign manager of G.W.Bush since his Texas years. I was surprised that Texas was dominated by Democratic Party years ago. It was Karl who sensed the return of conservatism in Texas general public and brought Republican back.

The book includes a lot of interesting stories about how Karl spinned and destroyed all the Democratic Party stars. Lot of dirty tricks involved. That's why politicians from both parties fear and hate Karl. Let see if Karl can survive the CIA leak scandal.

My recent reading is focus on valuation and PRC accounting stuffs. Too boring to introduce those books here. But I did watch an interesting dvd called "The Corporation" recently (http://www.thecorporation.com/index.php?page_id=2). The film is based on the book The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power by Joel Bakan.

Modern corporation is highly influential to our society and everyday life. Corporation is like the middle age Church, modern CEO is like the Cardinal. From legislation to war, corporate shapes domestic and international politic. Despite all the scandals, executives are still highly respectable and influential, generally speaking.

Corporation exists to create profit and bears no moral obligation. Although they are also part of the political system and are subjected to other political balancing forces. However, since corporation controls enormous resources that make them the dominate power in modern society.

As Gabriel Herbas (Prof. of Economics, State University, Bolivia) said in the film, "Our governments, sadly, are just puppets for these companies." Sam Gibara (Chairman, former CEO Goodyear Tire) also admitted that "Corporations today have more power than governments."

Even in a system like US that emphasis balance of power, corporation is still highly dominate. Not to say how powerful corporation is in developing countries that put GDP growth above everything else.

Corporation affects our environment, our social value and our way of life. (how long our work hours is ?; how "corporate ladder" divided people into different "class"; how advertising and media shaping consumption behavior & what does "good life" means; how media corporation control our information/news flow; how "corporate mission" brainwash their employees … etc)

Although “The Corporation” is a bit too“Michael Moore” and a bit too angry, it does provides a wider prospective to the issue. The Corporation includes forty interviews with corporate insiders and critics - including Milton Friedman, Noam Chomsky, Naomi Klein, and Michael Moore, Hank McKinnell (CEO Pfizer Inc.), Sir Mark Moody-Stuart (Former Chairman, Royal Dutch Shell), Andrea Finger (Spokesperson for Disney-built town of Celebration), Peter Drucker, Elaine Bernard (Executive Director, Trade Union Program, Harvard) …etc (interviewee list : http://www.thecorporation.com/index.php?page_id=3)

Highly recommended to all of us.

===============================================

More about Karl Rove .............

Karl Rove
Senior adviser and deputy chief of staff
Date of birth: Dec. 25, 1950

Karl Rove is a man of many nicknames. He is the "Architect" of Bush's victories; he is "Bush's Brain." The president alternately calls him "Boy Genius" or "Turd Blossom," a Texas phrase describing a flower that grows in manure. He is the mastermind of the White House, the instigator-in-chief responsible for a series of policies and political maneuvers aimed first at getting his boss re-elected, and now at creating a permanent Republican majority.

In the first term, Rove was Bush's senior political adviser, officially in charge of strategic planning and political affairs. In early 2005, Bush also made him deputy chief of staff, so he now officially coordinates the policies of the National Security Council, the Domestic Policy Council, the National Economic Council and the Homeland Security Council. The result is that Rove is the poster child for how politics and policy have merged in the Bush White House.

Traditionally, governing is a considerably different matter than running for office, where winning is everything. Not so with Rove. If he eventually starts losing, he could end up taking the blame for creating a divisive presidency, aimed more at achieving partisan goals than the common good. But if he keeps winning, he will be a kingmaker even as his boss becomes a lame duck -- and his legacy could be a GOP that is indeed the ruling party for decades to come.

‧ The Architect, PBS's Frontline, April 2005 (Includes priceless video, at the 4:45 mark, of a young Karl Rove lecturing Dan Rather about the importance of voter registration in the 1972 Nixon campaign.)
‧ With Bush Re-elected, Rove Turns to Policy, New York Times, March 28, 2005
‧ The Karl Rove Ascension, washingtonpost.com, Feb. 9, 2005
‧ Barbara Walters's Most Fascinating People, ABC News, Dec. 8, 2004
‧ The Many Faces of Karl Rove, washingtonpost.com, Nov. 8, 2004
‧ The Controller, New Yorker, May 12, 2003
‧ Rove's Way, New York Times Magazine, Oct. 20, 2002
‧ Official Bio

===========================================

P.S. : Mike, please contact Daisy for the "Fraud Examination", W.Steven Albreecht (translated version).

買到停不到手

2005-11-06T01:08:00.001+08:00

這兩天新增書債8本

what went wrong? by Bernard Lewis 中東歷史大師講為何伊斯蘭同西方國家咁多仇口

Conundrum by Jan Morris 著名旅遊作家夫子自道,講自己變性的心路歷程

The invisible continent by Kenichi Ohmae 策略大師的舊作,講新經濟下的企業生存之道,貪其名氣而買,可能有排都唔睇

who run this place? The anatomy of britain in the 21st century by Anthony Sampson 老牌英國記者教你睇英國政壇、企業有乜問題

系統的哲學 by 金觀濤 - 其哲學思想的集大成

神話簡史 by Karen Armstrong 神的歷史的作者,對這類題材駕輕就熟

睡眠與做夢 by Jacob Empson 睡眠科學面面觀

上了建築旅行的癮 by 陳世良台灣建築師講世界名建築,相文都好似幾得

童年的消逝

2005-10-28T02:58:00.000+08:00

雖然本身從事媒體行業,但很少看關於媒體分析的書,可是對於已故媒體分析家Neil Postman的書,卻一直情有獨鐘.Postman很喜歡探討電視文化對社會造成的衝擊,但路數卻很廣泛,把史料、人類學與社會學等學科結合,往往給他扭出新的花樣.「童年的消逝(The Disappearance of Childhood)」正是這樣一部趣味盎然的示範作.

與歷史上大部份概念一樣，童年本身也非想當然的產物，原來有其演變的過程．在更早的年代裏，因為醫療知識與技術的不足，兒童隨時有可能會夭折，再加上成人都已經自顧不暇，因此，童年這個概念是不存在的．那個時代的孩子，一旦脫離襁褓階段，他們的穿著、說話與工作內容，就與成人無異，更沒有何謂「兒童不宜」的概念。那是一個沒有童年的時代。

Postman認為，童年概念的出現，始於印刷術發明之後，因為印刷術使得知識能夠流通，也使得越來越多的人能夠識字，但是這許多識字的人口中，並不包括兒童。因為了解文字的能力，包含了解抽象符號背後的意義，還要有解碼與轉換意義的能力，這些都不是經驗不足的兒童所能操作的，因此，印刷術使得兒童與成人之間的界線變得十分鮮明，童年作為過渡至識字前的狀態因而得到確立。也就是從這個時候開始，兒童的教育、成長、福利問題逐漸成為成人所關切的重要議題。

可是隨著電視的出現，卻導致童年的消逝。因為當書籍是唯一知識管道的來源時，成人可以對資訊加以分門別類，讓孩子在心智成熟之前，過濾一些他不應該、不適宜知道的知識。但是電視的出現，粉碎了成人壟斷知識的權力。因為理解影像遠較辨識符號容易，是孩子在很小的時候便發展完成的能力。因此，在孩子學習閱讀文字之前，電視早已用更強勢的影像語言，教會孩子該知道以及不該知道的事。

也因此在電視出現之後，兒童說話越來越老氣橫秋，像「殘酷一叮」捧紅了舉手投足唱歌談吐學足大人的莫生，對大人的權威越來越不屑一顧，反而成人卻有越來越孩子氣的跡象，童年因此正式消亡。

雖然Postman沒有為如何保存「童年」提供答案，但卻給予讀者一個愉快的閱讀經驗，那種半帶戲謔的筆觸，令人頗有點遊車河般的暢快．補充一句，筆者看的是中譯本，但譯本相當不俗，幾乎沒有翻譯的痕跡．

筆者去年也看過Postman的另一著作「娛樂至死(Amusing ourselves to death)」，同樣串嘴，講即食娛樂文化如何令人活在赫胥黎的美麗新世界(Brave New World)而不自知，有時間再推介．

《格瓦拉少年日記》

2005-10-25T03:10:00.000+08:00

大家好，英仔初來報道。
附碟後感一篇，(發表於大陸雜誌《世界博覽》)作見面禮，請各位指正。

巴西大導演瓦爾特‧薩勒斯的《格瓦拉少年日記》，重演了古巴民族革命英雄切●格瓦拉和早年好友格蘭納多騎摩托車環遊南美的浪漫。

其實《少年日記》并不如我想像的那麼好，當中切●格瓦拉的革命精神受到萎縮，是一套迎合歐美人角度的商業片。但影片所釋放的自由主義，仍每每教我沉醉其中。

前些天，台灣作家李敖在北大進行了一場轟動的演說，用「摸老虎屁股」來形容執政者對人民自由的賦予。作為一個文人，作為一個傳媒工作者，我從不懷疑執政者對社會風氣的推動作用，僅願意以我多年來在「自由港」的所見所聞，談談自由。
從石期時代以還，香港島上的人們，都在島上各自各地耕種、捕漁，做各自的生意，考各自的科舉。所謂山高皇帝遠，只要不觸犯律例，島上的人們從來也沒想過甚麼外在的桎梏。只有赤柱灘上收拾漁網的艇戶，遙望海天相融之際的孤鷗，輕舉斜照。

直到1842年，灘上的艇戶收拾漁網時，赫然發現遠處的地平線上，有一艘艘突兀的大船，向著小島的方向飄來。於是，艇戶開始驚叫，漁網撤了一地，愈來愈多的漁民集結灘畔，驚嚇呼叫。他們回望身後的汛站，鐵砲紋風不動，清兵無動於衷。大船登陸了，一個個紅鬚綠眼的大塊頭從船上步下。他們說，他們來自英國。他們說，欽差大臣耆英將小島交給他們，讓他們將「自由港」的概念帶到島上。

是的，作為外來的投資者，他們需要那麼一個小島。需要那麼一個基地，讓他們將鴉片源源不絕地輸入中國，讓他們將中國的人口，自由地販賣到南洋各地，開礦墾荒，創造財富。

1949年以後，「自由港」的概念變得更重要了。因為英國人知道，香港是中國的流亡地，不提倡自由，資本就不會逃到香港，稅收，就不會滾滾地落入殖民者的口袋。所以自由，對於香港人來說，是一個既禁忌，又熱門的話題。七十年代的保釣風潮，數以百計的大學生走上街頭。了為爭取國家領土，他們搖旗吶喊。但翹首以待的，卻是皇家警察無情的棒打。到那個時侯，我們赫然發現：自由、平等和博愛，在殖民者的口號裡，還是白皮膚的專利。

即使如此，我們仍然覺得我們比大陸人自由。因為我們還可以自由地購物、買賣、穿各式各樣的衣服。在那麼一個火紅的年代。

八、九十年代，香港人成群成群地移居他邦，因為我們綣戀購物、買賣、穿衣的自由，害怕回歸以後，大家都得穿灰的、綠的。

回歸八年了。當資本在島上變本加厲地流出流入時，人們發現，年輕美眉的花枝招展，比之往日，有過之而無不及。這個時侯，自由反倒變成了床底抽屜裡的兒時玩具，無人問津。

事實上，絕大部分的香港人都不懂得自由。香港人高呼自由民主的口號，裴多菲的詩句：生命誠可貴，愛情價更高，若為自由故，兩者皆可拋。已經泛濫作年青人的時髦口號。(甩掉男朋友/女朋友的絕妙台詞)。但當中，卻沒有多少人會知道這位匈牙利的偉大詩人，曾為了追尋國家的自由獻身沙場。

港人口中的自由，是陝隘的小資的自由，與裴氏口中民族的博愛的自由，相去甚遠。

經有人這樣對我說，說香港、台灣、新加坡三個華人地區。香港有法制、有自由，沒有民主；台灣有自由、有民主，沒有法制；新加坡有法制、有民主，沒有自由。

好有趣的一個概括。我呷了口咖啡，回過頭來，直觀地問：港人真的自由嗎？

沒錯，富裕的生活，高度的法制，使我們有充分的空間去選擇自己想做的工作，想幹的投資，想說的話等。但港人是否就此就自由了呢？不是的。雖然外在的條件解放了，人們還是自發性地為自己設立重重枷鎖。要努力讀書，要當律師、醫生，要買自己的房子......愈來愈多的物質享受，愈來愈多的預設的價值觀，反倒成了港人自由的阻礙。我無意故作清高，無意挑戰世人的價值觀，我不是說當醫生、律師不好，但當醫生律師，是否你自身的價值取向？這是一個問題。買房子、結婚，安居樂業，不是不好，但人生是否僅此一種生活模式？又是否每一個人，都喜歡這樣的生活？這是另一個問題。物質橫流的生活，教人的思考更見空洞、淺薄。身在自由之境，卻無一刻能真正地享用自由。

誠如龍應台所說：我們今天碰到的，好像是一個甚麼都可以的年代。但是解放很可能不是一種真正的自由，而是一種變相的束縛。價值多元不代表因此而不需要價值。我們所面臨的，絕對不是一個價值放棄的問題，而是一個「一切價值都必須重估的」巨大的考驗的時代......

台灣如是，香港亦如是。

有一天，北大的挈友玉騫打電話給我，說想要放下手上一切事情，循文成公主的路線入藏。此事，勾出了我心底對自由的定義：不是人給的，是自己造的。如果那是一個香港人，他大抵會說：我還得努力工作，賺錢養家。卻從來沒人想到：是否每一個人的家人，都那麼急需供養？人到底是為了自己而活？還是為了別人而活？養家糊口，在這麼一個繁盛的都會裡，卻竟成了眾人安於現狀的借口。

像切●格瓦拉般駕一輛摩托，驕傲地奔馳於美州大陸？相信絕大多數的香港人，會寧可躲進ktv狂唱一宵，或是躲進酒吧，大醉如泥。是休息？是鬆弛？還是在物質橫流的迷茫中，進一步地麻醉自己？我不敢妄斷，不敢。

今天的中國大陸，正逐步攀上繁榮的階梯，但繁榮之外，又會否踏上香港的道路？

Investment Fables

2005-10-17T01:35:00.000+08:00

Apple上周公布業績理想,但股價不升反跌,原因是市場原來的估計更高,這是投資增長股的陷阱之一:如何知道自己的買入價不是反映了過高的增長?著名財經教授Aswath Damodaran的" Investment Fables ",說的就是一段段投資界的迷思.

高息股一定好?
低PE股一定跑贏?
股價低過帳面值是否就是買入訊號?
抑或是盈利穩定、明星公司值得追捧?
相反理論的往績又如何?

諸如此類的十數條問題,是經紀成日掛在口邊的廉價意見,但實情是否一定得,定係好似秋官效應咁,是講講下當真的效應?這本書的目的,就是解釋為何有人覺得這些投資招數掂,實証及最新的財務學研究結果如何,如果真係值得跟,又有乜野要注意的事項.好似市帳率低,是因為隻股平,還是因為其股本回報率低、增長低定係風險大(即股本成本高)?

本書不是一味拆檔那一類,相反它其實認可一些策略,而且會教你如何按圖索驥來揀股.全書只有很少公式,當然有少少底子會較易讀,但作者就每條問題均會把你當門外漢地來說明,故此很易入口,是坊間少有地結合學術及實戰的一本書.

筆者是趁三聯減價時買的,一百四十多塊的hard cover,感覺相當抵,尤其是筆者上次買Damodaran的估值聖經"Investment Valuation"時,花了四百多元呢!

The elusive quest for growth

2005-10-10T03:39:00.000+08:00

若果說End of Poverty是一個樂觀經濟學家向貧窮開戰的宣言,那麼”The elusive quest for growth”可說是另一極端,作者William Easterly是紐約大學經濟系教授,曾在世界銀行工作了十多年的時間,他的名氣自然及不上Jeffrey Sachs,但對第三世界貧窮問題及各種藥方效力的了解,卻是不容置疑的.本書在02年初版時,確曾掀起了不少爭論,直到最近”經濟學人”雜誌依舊找其評論這方面的問題.

他在書中引述了不少調查及數據,力陳我們現在所做的一切,包括提供投資援助、改善教育、協助節育、貸款及寬免債務,最後均無補於事.他曾把這些研究向世銀匯報,結果被開除了.

Easterly認為,假若不把對人的激勵放在扶貧措施的核心,只會白花資源,淪為貪官污吏的囊中之物.本書的最大敗筆,就在於沒有為如何就這個誘因機制給出具體建議.

儘管如此,但這本書一樣精闢易讀,一樣多具體例子第一身體驗,只是多了點懷疑及批判,少了點對烏托邦的嚮往,但可能更腳踏實地一點也說不定.總括而言,若看End of Poverty覺得津津有味的話,這本書也不會令你失望.

The End Of Poverty

2005-10-09T17:00:00.000+08:00

這書我讀了接近四分之三, 還在看, 但想盡快向各位推薦。對於第三世界經濟發展感興趣的, 這書應不會讓你失望。

作者哥倫比亞大學教授Jeffrey Sachs, 當年以「震盪療法」為歐洲前社會主義國家經濟轉型落藥, 毁譽參半, 但他曾為多國政府出謀顯策的經驗, 確實大大豐富了這書的可觀性, 儘管Sachs同樣相信要發展經濟就得依賴自由市場, 但對於一窮二白又或元氣早已因計劃經濟桎梏而大挫的國家, 如何起步打破窮困的惡性循環, 繼而步上正軌, 他有很多一手的觀察(波利維亞、波蘭、俄羅斯等), 也提出細緻而具體的方案。

Sachs 鞭撻美國的偽善, 教人「爽」, 加上力陳第一世界給予經援及減免第三世界債項的必要性, 想必能討一些左翼人士歡心。讀著讀著, 一度以為讓「自由市場原教旨主義者」嗤之以鼻的「發展經濟學」傳統竟然由Sachs還魂。當然, 這是錯覺。

無法忽視的是, 市場化和私有化始終是Sachs的主要藥方。 Sachs對他曾經參與推動、雷厲風行的經濟轉型措施, 明顯仍然持十分正面的評價, 輕描淡寫發展的「陣痛」-----轉型下無法重返就業市場的波蘭工人, 是被共產政權欺騙了的不幸人士, 是歷史的受害者, 大家都無可奈何。

轉載:詹宏志談讀書習慣

2005-10-04T14:37:00.000+08:00

各位有沒有從詹宏志身上看見自己其中一面?

讀書D09
明報
郝明義、莊琬華2005-10-02

SUNDAY 作家說

詹宏志我的讀書習慣

按：閱讀除了人和書之外，時間、空間也擔當重要的角色。何時閱讀？何地閱讀？不同的時間和地點，會跟閱讀這活動擦出不同的火花。被喻為台灣新一代傳媒教父的詹宏志，如何在非常有限的空閒中偷出時間跟書本交流，個人的閱讀習慣如何？且聽他娓娓道來。

郝：網絡上有一篇文章，寫詹宏志躲在會議室裏讀偵探小說──一個人對書本的專注場景，顯然是極其動人的畫面。

詹：我也看過那篇文章。那大概是指開會的時候。因為我一定準時或者提早進辦公室，可是其他人可能容易被事情絆住比較晚來，我就會先看書，等到其他人到，就趕快把書藏起來，大概是那時候被偷看到了。
工作之後，讀書時間愈來愈支離破碎，我在辦公室出了名，因為我上樓梯會一面走路一面讀，在街上走路、過馬路等紅燈、搭公車，我也拿書。時間零零碎碎，不湊起來就一點都不值錢。有一天我從凱悅飯店開完一個會出來等車子，坐在路邊就把書拿出來看，被一家周刊拍下來，還寫了一點半嘲諷的報道，類似「這樣子公司還會有人在經營嗎？」等等。我的時間的實情就是如此。如果不用這些時間，就達不到年輕時候那麼自在就可以讀的量。現在是兵馬倥傯，所以我學曾國藩讀書的方法。
我自己會在出版業裏做那麼久，也不完全是對出版那麼熱愛的緣故，因為其實對出版灰心喪志的時候也很多，但只要到其他行業，都做不久，因為會覺得怪，覺得少了一個東西，覺得上班看書罪惡感特別重。以前我在唱片公司，某天沒事就把書拿出來看，突然有人敲門，我嚇得趕快把書藏起來。後來想想，我是總經理，沒有人會開除我，來的都是同事，也不會怎麼樣，但我就是覺得這時間是別人的，看書是personalenjoyment，好像是用別人付薪水的時間做自己的事情，會很不好意思。在出版社上班，則可以理直氣壯的看書，因為在那個時間看書，還可以幫老闆把錢賺回來。
看書對我來說像是酗酒一樣，無可救藥的陷溺，東看一點西看一點，心理上就感到開心。

偷時間換知識

郝：這樣片段片段地閱讀，你怎麼延續印象？

詹：年輕時候完全不成問題。現在要接起來，花的力氣就大了，如果間隔時間長了點，就必須再看一下前面。但我現在也看得很開，因為時間就是這麼破碎，看多少都無所謂，接不起來就算了，我沒有那麼在乎。年輕的時候，一坐下來看書，我就會拿出筆記，現在也不會了。讀書是打發生命，並沒有要拿它來幹嘛。我說這是閱讀的「快感政策」。

郝：我記得你有早起的習慣，你的閱讀時間有沒有特別分配？

詹：我起得非常早，大概是四點半起來，那是最舒服的時間，這段時間我就用來看書、寫作、上網。我是鄉下人，本來就比較早起，但刻意這麼早是大學開始。熄燈之後，我就會拿書到餐廳裏面，讀到兩點，然後回宿舍睡到六點起來。我養成一種紀律，讓睡眠長度維持在四到四個半小時。
後來到報社工作很晚睡，離開報社之後，第一件事情就是調回早睡早起，十二點睡，四點起來，一直維持了二十年，即使外出旅行也是如此，到那個時間就自然醒來。那時候周圍環境是靜止的狀態，這狀態跟晚上又不太一樣，晚上讀書是「漸入睏境」，早上讀書則是「漸入佳境」。當看完書要出門時，會精神飽滿，早上讀書不那麼時髦，但效率比較好。早上也是比晚上好的寫稿時間。我現在覺得，晚上需要咖啡、克補，需要一些搏鬥，早上就不需要，是在慢慢打開的狀態。早上的時間最完整充實，一出門，時間就支離破碎，連回家的時間都不可預測。
我大概八點左右出門，然後就是中午沒約會，在辦公室吃便當，大約有一個小時的時間可以讀書。我在工作當中最喜歡的一種情是，訂好一個約會，但對方臨時失約，突然間多出兩個鐘頭，那是非常開心的事情。

郝：晚上回到家之後你怎麼安排時間？都讀些什麼？

詹：我還是會看書，但現在比較不能對付硬的東西，因為會疲倦，所以讀一些小說，一些比較輕的論述。年輕時，睡覺前躺在上還都可以讀《方以智晚節考》，或是微積分。那時候腦筋清醒，現在精神狀態都有自然律在支配。

郝：對於閱讀的空間，有沒有特別的講究？

詹：我有固定的空間，也有不固定的空間。固定的空間是我家裏某幾個位置。以前是書房，現在書房放電腦，一旦坐上去，書就變成配角了。所以我看書的地點主要在客廳的一張桌子上。它跟了我很多年，幾次搬家都留，那張桌子很大，可以同時放很多書。我看書喜歡對照參考，所以有時會同時打開好幾本，我的習慣是如果看到人名，我一定查出此人的生卒年份，然後寫上去，產生一種check的功能。所以我很喜歡用那張桌子。如果是假日，我就會在一張面對窗外的沙發閱讀，那是relax的地方，連讀書的心情都不太相同。辦公室裏，我也非常喜歡會議桌。這桌子開會當然令人頭痛，但只有一個人的時候就很舒服。
這些年來，我尤其有點心得的空間是在候機室跟飛機上。因為經常要花很多時間在飛機上，我看書又很快，所以一定要計算飛短程要帶多少書，長程又要多少。如果碰到轉機延遲的時候，就會出現青黃不接的問題，必須想辦法在機場補充貨源。這是中毒者的象，要按照劑量來，一天打兩針，如果沒有就會雙手發抖，口吐白沫，必須找到新的藥。所以我必須很有計劃。我不帶很多書出去，因為會減少帶書回來的力量。有時候我也會帶一些可以在路上看完就丟的書，同樣的空間就可以換新書回來。

分兩類題目看書

郝：談一談你的閱讀習慣和方法吧。

詹：我讀書不是很有系統，但大概可以分為兩部分來說。一是某一段時間，可能三年、五年，對幾個題目充滿好奇，我會比較有計劃地找相關書籍來讀，尋找淵源、建立自己的理解脈絡。其他部分，就是放縱自己看吸引我的題目，不管它有什麼意義、用途。比較有計劃的部分，大概都同時維持三到四個題目。譬如我曾經有過一段時間花很多力氣想了解publiccul-ture，包含批判面跟解放面，所以去讀有關的各家理論，想要知道一個面貌。
比較沒計劃的部分，像十幾年前，寫完《創意人》、《城市人》之後，準備寫一個題目叫《旅行人》，還取了一個副標題：「關於行動的靜思」，或「關於旅行的形上學」，意思是說，人之移動，其中有一部分看起來沒有具體的動機，好像除了去把財富花掉之外，沒有積極的目標，然而事實上這裏面另有價值。譬如中國認為讀萬卷書不如行萬里路，西方相信travel的教育功能，這行動本身一定有一個隱藏的意義。所以我想用帶故事，帶反省、理論的形式，最後提出一個新的時代的旅行觀的小書。
會有這個動機，是從康有為的《歐洲十一國遊記》開始，特別是拿他在裏面所說的話，去對照後來他所做的事，再以一個今天的旅行者的角度做比較。等到要動筆了，我覺得我擁有的故事還不夠多，就想應該看更多像康有為一樣的旅行者，他們都基於不同的理由去了某些地方，待在某些地方，然後回來後改變成另外一個人。從他們的述、感受，我來看看更多的whypeopletravel這樣的故事。
這是1987年的事。一開始我是找大家都熟悉的、有名的探險家，慢慢就找到更冷僻的作家，書已經沉默在時間膠囊裏的作者，愈找愈多，忘路之遠近，所以，等到我回過神來，十二年就過去了，然後蒐了一屋子這樣的書。有些書很難找，但幸運的是，我有一個姊姊剛好在美國圖書館學系讀博士，所以通過她的力量，所有買不到的書，就設法用館際交換的方式借來影印給我。這本書到今天都還沒寫，閱讀的過程對書的寫作幫助也不大。這些舊典不一定是經典，但在西方過去幾百年裏頭曾經是很重要的東西，而中文世界沒有的。所以後來就逐漸產生一個計劃，成為城邦裏面馬可孛羅的旅行文學。書都選好了，只是受限於我寫導讀的能力，出太慢。
這個題目就是有點不期而遇。我不知道我在找什麼東西，就多看幾本，每一本都指向過去影響它的書，這些書在歷史上有個暗流，往上會溯到上游，往下會到下游，所以不知不覺就把這系統給讀起來。近年來這些題目的形成，我都持一個比較放縱快感的政策，看哪個題目讓我有感官上的歡愉。

扣問作者鬼魂

郝：透過閱讀來加強自己的能力，你在這方面是一個代表性的人物。不管你過去學電腦，還是花五、六年時間了解財務相關問題，你透過閱讀來獲取一些專業能力的方法，秘訣為何？

詹：我是一個畏懼跟人接觸的人。很怕問人問題，也怕去上課。每當我碰上什麼不會的東西，就覺得沒關係，這世上總會有相關的書。所以，我習慣用讀書來解決工作裏某一技能的困難。
不會的東西就找書，這其實是在學校裏面的訓練，一個題目，怎麼通過書的尋找把它包圍起來。在出版業的生涯裏，我原來是一個編輯。但是在遠流的時候，我下定決心從編輯跳到marketing的角色。於是我把台灣所有跟mar-keting有關的教科書，跟談marketing的商業書找來，四、五十本都讀了，所有理論在內心反芻，試在工作上驗證。這個習慣到今天還是一樣，每當遇到困難，或者新做一件事，比方說電子出版，要了解跟數位版權保護技術相關的東西，就是找書來讀。當然現在工具更多，不一定是書，可能透過internet搜尋到很多文章。
很多人書讀得很好，但是並不真正相信書，沒有跟書反覆交談。我認為書很少說錯，也不會讓人無所依從，只是，我們不應該只按照表面來理解，而是必須反芻，扣問作者的鬼魂。這幾十年中，因為我的工作範圍一直在變動，讀書這個技能幫了我很大的忙，不然我每個月都要上課，三十年的東西可能要用六十年來學。我很幸運的在讀書的時候，有得到讀書的基本技能，整個學校教育，就是應該教會大家讀書的技能。(標題經編輯修改)

Hot commodities

2005-09-26T01:46:00.000+08:00

看到Daisy的首度登場,令人鼓舞.今次介紹的是Jim Roger的Hot Commodities. Jim Roger其人其事不用我多說吧,這本已是04年出版的書,今時今日看更覺仿如隔世.這本恰稱dummies guide to commodities,沒有複雜難明的分析,講的是投資入門,及各種商品的未來供求因素.筆者兩天已了結此書,易入口之餘,卻會感到不夠喉,不過作者有江湖地位加上遠見,確實具備一定的流行元素.

不要以為看後能對寫新聞有很大幫助,但作為入門書也無不可.Roger在書中給出的主要訊息如下:

商品與股市correlation夠低

商品價格可以在經濟差時依然發圍

直接買商品比買商品股要好及簡單

石油、咖啡、糖、铅、黃金 -->掂

今次商品大牛市將歷時10年,但當中會有反覆

若要延伸閱讀,可以看末日博士更早寫成的Tomorrow's Gold,里昂當年幫他出版送給客戶,當時麥嘉華已大聲疾呼要買原材料,不過這本書較為概念性,不少篇幅讓麥嘉華賣弄博學,叫筆者看了好幾十頁奧國學派熊彼德的經濟學說仍未入到正題,結果半途而廢久久未重看,或許日後有機會補看後會覺得值得一書.

Preparing for a pandemic

2005-09-25T23:13:00.000+08:00

最近印尼禽流感事件證明大規模爆發是遲早的問題, 其死亡率比SARS更高-- 達50%.
時全球70%的疫苗生產控制在九個國家手上, 一旦爆發疫症, 他們可能封鎖出口, 以保障本國國民安全--即使美國也僅能供其5%人口所須的疫苗.
美國政府已要求Sanofi Pasteur and Chiron藥廠著手研制禽流感疫苗.最先發現此病的香港又做了什麼應變工作呢?

Sep 22nd 2005 From The Economist print edition
AP
More vaccine is needed to prepare the world for an influenza pandemic
IT IS hard to imagine that the aches and pains that most people know as flu could mutate into a superflu that might kill tens of millions of people within two years. And yet, if superflu strikes—as it has done three times in the past century—that is what may well happen. In the global influenza pandemic of 1918, 25m-50m people died. Many scientists now believe that another influenza pandemic is inevitable some time soon.
These concerns might be little more than another background worry if it were not for the fact that there is currently a strain of bird flu in widespread circulation to which humans have no natural immunity. This strain has killed more than 60 people so far, about half the number infected. Small pockets of human-to-human transmission have already been seen, and health officials are worried that the widespread geographical extent of bird flu means that it is not a question of if a strain emerges that can be transmitted easily between humans, but when.
Worried scientists have finally managed to catch the attention of politicians. Last week at the United Nations General Assembly, George Bush announced a new international partnership to address avian and pandemic influenza. World health ministers will meet in Canada next month to discuss how to pool resources, boost surveillance and improve the capacity to contain and respond to an outbreak. The World Health Organisation (WHO) wants more governments to draw up preparedness plans (only 40 have these so far) and agree on how they will co-ordinate their responses.
One leading concern is the scarcity of flu vaccine. Although the WHO's new global stockpile of anti-viral drugs is a good first line of defence, the only sure way of protecting billions of people against superflu is to vaccinate them. Few people would have natural immunity.
It could also take six months from the appearance of the first superflu strain to produce a vaccine. In that time, large numbers of people would be likely to die. Anti-viral drugs rushed to the location of any outbreak might delay its spread by a month. But, even with such a delay, the world is woefully unprepared for a pandemic. Its entire capacity for flu-vaccine production is only 300m shots a year (each containing 15 micrograms of the active ingredient known as antigen). Yet in the case of superflu, several billion people would need vaccination—and they may need two shots at higher doses.
While most people only need one shot of vaccine against chicken pox or measles to have life-long immunity, flu is different. The vaccine must be produced each year from scratch because, each year, the influenza virus changes.
Vaccines are complicated to produce and prone to hit production problems. To make a flu vaccine, the virus must be grown on fertilised chicken eggs without allowing the growth of any other organisms that might contaminate the product. The eggs must be specially produced to assure the health of the hens and the sanitation of supply.
Reliance on eggs is the rate-limiting step in flu-vaccine production. The eggs take weeks to grow. Then the virus is extracted from the cells it has attacked, and inactivated. When the virus is injected into a subject, it stimulates an immune reaction in the form of antibodies, which would protect that person against the real live version of the virus.
Most of the world's flu vaccine is produced in nine countries: Australia, Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands and the United States. Europe produces 70% of the vaccines. And Europe's vaccine producers are worried. Without international agreements now, they say there is a high risk of inadequate, inequitable and delayed supplies of vaccines. Among public-health officials and vaccine manufacturers, there is a widespread assumption that, during an outbreak, countries with production facilities would declare a national emergency and limit or ban the export of vaccine to other countries. That might be good for people living in the nine countries on the list, but it would leave the rest of the world without any vaccine at all.
Luc Hessel is the director of public affairs at Sanofi Pasteur, a vaccine manufacturer in France. He is also in charge of pandemic influenza at European Vaccine Manufacturers, the vaccine-industry's trade association. He says that the race to prepare for the next strain of superflu is “both a sprint and a marathon”.
The spread of bird flu has recently forced a bit of strategic sprinting. America's National Institutes of Health has paid Sanofi Pasteur and Chiron, a manufacturer based in Emeryville, California, to make prototype vaccines against H5N1, the strain of bird flu that is currently circulating. Should superflu emerge from this bird flu, the hope is that these vaccines would confer enough resistance against the new strain of superflu to save lives. And having a prototype or a pre-approved vaccine would speed the drug-approval process. In Europe, there is no obvious way of funding such short-term development work. Dr Hessel says that the vaccine industry's association is in “close contact” with the European Commission about plugging this obvious gap.
The American work has already produced some important findings. A vaccine has been developed, and the authorities have ordered small amounts to protect some health workers. The most important finding, though, is that large quantities of antigen—the active ingredient—are needed to confer resistance. For protection, two shots of 90 micrograms are needed. At this concentration, America could protect only 5% of its population.
A novel solution to this problem is emerging from European laboratories. Rino Rappuoli, the chief scientific officer at Chiron, is one of those working on a way to make vaccines protective at low doses by delivering the injection along with something called an adjuvant. This makes the vaccine linger at the site where it has been injected, and causes an enhanced immune response. Dr Rappuoli says that if an adjuvant is used, half the normal flu dose would work. This technique could thus be used to double the world's capacity to produce a superflu vaccine.
Adjuvants also appear to stimulate longer-lasting immunity. In work published earlier this year in the Journal of Infectious Diseases, Dr Rappuoli's group studied samples from people involved in a vaccine study after the 1997 outbreak of bird flu in Hong Kong. They found that people who had received adjuvanted vaccine years ago are still significantly immune to the strain of bird flu currently circulating.
The next step is to test a vaccine against H5N1, the current strain of bird flu, with an adjuvant. John Treanor, professor of medicine at the University of Rochester, says that there are three candidate adjuvants. Two are proprietary products (owned by Chiron and GlaxoSmithKline) and so less attractive. The other is alum, a salt containing aluminium. It has been used widely in vaccines, although not in flu vaccines, so development work is needed.
Despite all the promise of adjuvants, some obstacles remain. They can cause mild localised reactions, and they are only licensed for use in flu vaccines in 20 countries, including Italy—where Dr Rappuoli is based and where Chiron has treated 18m people with adjuvanted vaccine. Nevertheless, given their substantial advantages, adjuvants are certainly worth pursuing as a matter of urgency.
Other ideas under scrutiny include ways to use less vaccine at the injection stage, and injecting at different sites to stimulate a greater reaction—such as into the skin itself. But Klaus Stohr, who runs the WHO's global influenza programme, is adamant that the only sure way to answer the unknowns about pandemic influenza is for governments to provide a better environment for flu-vaccine development, and to increase the uptake of seasonal vaccines where this fits in with national health priorities. By this, he means that governments need to buy all of the seasonal vaccine that national health agencies have said would be worthwhile.
It would also help for governments to give the manufacturers more long-term certainty over the amount of vaccine they plan to buy each year. Canada, for example, recently signed a ten-year agreement with a manufacturer for its seasonal vaccine supply, and the country also pays an annual “pandemic readiness fee” which stipulates the company has the capacity to produce 8m doses of vaccine per month for four months.
In the longer term, there will be more options. Flu vaccines could be grown in a vat of cells rather than laboriously in eggs, which would make them easier to produce in volume. And the novel approaches that are today on the drawing board may mean that, one day, neither flu nor superflu would be a problem. Some people are working on a universal vaccine, a shot that is given once and which works for ever against all flu. Others are trying to devise an inhaled drug that coats the cells of the lungs and prevents the virus from gaining access. But this is the work of the superflu marathon runners. Before they reach the finishing line, the sprinters may be called upon.

The Book of Bunny Suicides, Return of the Bunny Suicides

2005-09-14T02:12:00.000+08:00

香港人成天把「想死、想死」掛在嘴邊,尋死率好似全球第一,不妨把這個話題戲謔一番,也好化解化解怨氣.在網上看到有人介紹這套漫畫書,看了幾頁,已喜歡上了.死,原來也可以很有趣.

Madness Explained

2005-09-11T22:27:00.000+08:00

昨日偕老婆看完"The Best Of Youth( 燦爛人生)"(意大利電影, 在灣仔影藝上映中, 分上、下兩集, 片長共6小時), 戲本身甚為不俗, 大家不妨一看。戲中有一角色是精神病科醫生, 致力革新精神病治療方法, 他對精神病的看法(在片中其實只有十句、八句對白交代), 與月前讀過的一本有關精神病的書藉 "Madness Explained-Psychosis and Human Nature"的中心思想, 有些相似的地方。

"Madness Explained"算是一本容易讀懂的書, 先從歷史入手 (可惜的是這書主要由19世紀後期現代精神病學開始確立說起, 如果能夠再回溯更久遠的歷史, 描述精神病在不同的文化中如何開始被視為「病」, 想會有更多啟發) , 介紹精神病如何被界定、被分類, 寫到近年最新的研究成果, 對我這名門外漢而言, 是一頓豐富的知識盛宴。

作者Richard Bentall是英國臨床心理學家, 他認為有兩個一直影響著現代精神病治療方法的假設是錯的, 其一是假設精神病可以根據癥狀而分類成為各種不同類的「病」,如精神分裂、抑鬱症等; 二是假設病人個人的心理狀況不能有效解釋病癥。

對於神經病理學(neuropathology)等生化學說試圖通過研究腦袋運作來解釋瘋狂與正常, 並據此制定治療方法, 他儘管不至於全面反對, 但頗為不以為然, 認為很多治療方法其實沒有足夠的科學理據支持, 最終導致過度用藥的問題。

Bentall相信「正常」與「瘋狂」的界線其實並不明確而且難以界定, 每個人都在這兩端之間的光譜中的一個位置上。他指有眾多研究顯示, 使用心理學和認知科學的成果, 針對每名病人特殊的心理狀況和背景設計療程, 是可以有在低度用藥的情況下取得理想的治療成果。

意料之內, Bentall所推動的被標籤為「人性化」的治療方法。有朋友曾跟我說, 這早於六、七十年代其實已經開始盛行, 稱不上是革命性的新潮。"The Best Of Youth" 的時代背景剛好開始於六十年代末、七十年代初, 一個狂飆的年代。

"WHAT IF" AND "EMPIRE"

2005-09-11T16:04:00.000+08:00

因工作和陪老婆的關係, 抱歉現在才有時間參與。

Mike及Think3的未看書單十分吸引, 除了"What if"及"Empire"兩書外, 其餘我全沒有讀過,期待兩位書虫快快把它們消化掉, 為我們反芻書介。Think3, 我尤其對賭博書種感興趣, 我沒有讀過這方面的書, 但憑想像可知應十分可觀, 你能否談談你讀過的其他同類書?

談談我讀過的。"What if"是有趣的另類歷史書, 多名史學家撰寫了十多篇短文, 探究一些歷史事件發展的偶然和必然, 還有十多廿個小故事, 趣味十足。

近月石油話題愈來愈火熱, 又剛與老婆看過"Downfall"的DVD, 讓我回想起"What if"其中一篇有關Hitler與石油的文章。What if納粹當年如果不妄想攻下蘇聯, 轉而集中軍力奪取中東, 保住燃油供應, 歐洲戰事就不知何時才能終結, 納粹甚至有機會取勝, 當代歷史可能是另一個面貎。

翻開這舊書, 發現文章原來是John Keegan寫的。他著作甚豐, 經常在書店的歷史書部分看見他的名字, 但我僅在多年前讀過他的"A History of Warfare", 而且沒有把整本書讀完。印象中該書對科技發展對戰爭決策的影響, 有頗詳細的描寫和分析, 又述說文化對戰爭形態的影響, 並認為現代世界可以從原始社會如何進行戰爭之中, 得到降低戰爭禍害的啟發,我印象已經不深, 有機會找回這書再翻一翻, 稍後再多寫一點。

"Empire"是剛剛在上月放假時讀完的, 談不上喜歡。未知書本是否特別為BBC電視節目而寫, 因而導致結構頗為鬆散、零碎, 對個別人物的言行著墨甚濃, 但一些有關歷史發展的論斷, 多是「一句起,兩句止」, 沒有足夠的闡釋, 也缺乏材料支持, 讀起來並不過癮。

書本對英帝國的殖民經驗, 包括奴隸制度的殘酷, 儘管不無批判, 但十分肯定英國在推動世界"現代化"和"全球化(含正面意義的)"的貢獻, 而這貢獻正是通過帝國的擴張來體現。這當然是一個惹火的論點, 我曾經在網上看見過一些辯論, 香港人應有資格參與其中, 提供多一個視角。

我反而喜歡"Empire"作者Niall Ferguson的一本舊著"The Cash Nexus"。財政實力決定帝國成敗, 要建立這份實力, Ferguson指繫於四項制度性建設: 1)能有效徵稅的官僚系統;2)具代表性的議會制度;3)成熟的國債市場和4)有能力穩定銀行體系和降低金融市場信用風險的中央銀行, 四者互有關連、互相鞏固。為了支撐起這個論點, "The Cash Nexus"引用了相當豐富的歐、美史料, 我覺得可以與Paul Kennedy的"The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers"互為參考。Kennedy那本書名氣之大, 評論之多, 也不用我多說了。

"帝國"這題目近年大熱, 很多書本的名字或副題都要標上這個詞, 並且特指美國。有一本名字同樣是"Empire"、頗獲評論重視的、由Michael Hardt和Antonio Negri寫作的書本, 可惜我買了一冊內地中譯本, 譯文水準奇差, 慘不忍睹, 各位有沒有英文原著? 有沒有讀過? 是否值得一讀?

我知道Mike已經買下了Ferguson去年的新書"Colossus", 該書副題是"the rise and fall of the American Empire"。Mike, 讀完沒有? 這書如何?

統計/調查泛濫

2005-09-11T01:55:00.000+08:00

近幾年新聞鍾意用很多調查或統計,又話全港有幾多十萬人有呢隻病,又話香港自殺率全球第幾高,又話市民普遍認為要幾多千萬元才夠退休,一直對這些所謂調查抱有懷疑,看了think3介紹的numbers guys專欄,覺得香港為何一直缺少這類肯反省統計泛濫現象的文章,揭破一些有商業或政治企圖,搏宣傳或怪力亂神的統計.

其實即使一些有standing的機構,或大學所作的調查,準確性也大有疑問,傳媒一方面在提供這些資訊作為談資之餘,也是否能容納多些獨立批判的空間?

介紹一段值得一讀的文章,若對統計誤用有興趣,可參看think3早前介紹的書list.

Scientific accuracy

...and statistics
Sep 1st 2005
From The Economist print edition

Just how reliable are scientific papers?

THEODORE STURGEON, an American science-fiction writer, once observed that “95% of everything is crap”. John Ioannidis, a Greek epidemiologist, would not go that far. His benchmark is 50%. But that figure, he thinks, is a fair estimate of the proportion of scientific papers that eventually turn out to be wrong.

Dr Ioannidis, who works at the University of Ioannina, in northern Greece, makes his claim in PLoS Medicine, an online journal published by the Public Library of Science. His thesis that many scientific papers come to false conclusions is not new. Science is a Darwinian process that proceeds as much by refutation as by publication. But until recently no one has tried to quantify the matter.

Dr Ioannidis began by looking at specific studies, in a paper published in the Journal of the American Medical Association in July. He examined 49 research articles printed in widely read medical journals between 1990 and 2003. Each of these articles had been cited by other scientists in their own papers 1,000 times or more. However, 14 of them—almost a third—were later refuted by other work.

Some of the refuted studies looked into whether hormone-replacement therapy was safe for women (it was, then it wasn't), whether vitamin E increased coronary health (it did, then it didn't), and whether stents are more effective than balloon angioplasty for coronary-artery disease (they are, but not nearly as much as was thought).

Having established the reality of his point, he then designed a mathematical model that tried to take into account and quantify sources of error. Again, these are well known in the field.

One is an unsophisticated reliance on “statistical significance”. To qualify as statistically significant a result has, by convention, to have odds longer than one in 20 of being the result of chance. But, as Dr Ioannidis points out, adhering to this standard means that simply examining 20 different hypotheses at random is likely to give you one statistically significant result. In fields where thousands of possibilities have to be examined, such as the search for genes that contribute to a particular disease, many seemingly meaningful results are bound to be wrong just by chance.

Other factors that contribute to false results are small sample sizes, studies that show weak effects (such as a drug which works only on a small number of patients) and poorly designed studies that allow the researchers to fish among their data until they find some kind of effect, regardless of what they started out trying to prove. Researcher bias, due either to clinging tenaciously to a pet theory, or to financial interests, can also skew results.

When Dr Ioannidis ran the numbers through his model, he concluded that even a large, well-designed study with little researcher bias has only an 85% chance of being right. An underpowered, poorly performed drug trial with researcher bias has but a 17% chance of producing true conclusions. Overall, more than half of all published research is probably wrong.

It should be noted that Dr Ioannidis's study suffers from its own particular bias. Important as medical science is, it is not the be-all and end-all of research. The physical sciences, with more certain theoretical foundations and well-defined methods and endpoints, probably do better than medicine. Still, he makes a good point—and one that lay readers of scientific results, including those reported in this newspaper, would do well to bear in mind. Which leaves just one question: is there a less than even chance that Dr Iaonnidis's paper itself is wrong?

新成員可否喺度打聲招呼,等大家知道你黎咗

2005-09-10T02:26:00.000+08:00

iPod & Flat World

2005-09-09T15:50:00.000+08:00

iPod : "Designed by Apple in California, Made in China."

To be precise, iPod is designed in Cal., it's components are manufactured in Asia, then iPod is assembled in China and is being sold globally.

During my visit to US in March 05, I attended New York Times' columnist Thomas L. Friedman's lecture on his new book -- "The World Is Flat: A Brief History of the Twenty-first Century" (published on 5 April).

He outlined his new book in his lecture, and I chatted with him briefly after the lecture. His book is about "Outsourcing" and "Globalization".

Chatted with audiences and people I met over the trip, I found

public is generally worried about "outsourcing". The lecture was held in Seattle (headquarter of Microsoft and plenty of software companies), hence you can image how middle-class electronic engineers feel when competition pressure from

India

getting heavier and heavier.

Friedman is an excellent speaker, respond from audience was great. I found the talk interesting too, but I was not as "surprised" and "shocked" as other US audience.

Friedman uses the "The World is Flat" as a metaphor for the fact that "the global playing field is being leveled". The book is about how the convergence of technology and events that allowed India, China, and so many other countries to become part of the global supply chain for services and manufacturing, creating an explosion of wealth in the middle classes of the world's two biggest nations, giving them a huge new stake in the success of globalization.

"Well, what is so new about this ?" I thought.

Perhaps, Hong Kong have located at the very front-line of globalization, we have experienced "outsourcing" for too long. Losing manufacturing jobs to workers in China have been the trend since early 1980's, losing call-center jobs to China have been the trend since early 1990's.

I joined the drink section of a group of audience after the seminar. I found there are plenty mis-conceptions on international trading relationship between US and China. The common mistake is mis-focus on US-China trade deficit figure, and forget the reality is a multi-countries trade & division of labor network.

Indeed, there has been a structural change in US-China-Asia trade relationship since mid 90's.

In old days, Asia directly export to US. However, in recent years China emerged as the final assemble centre for Asia's goods (ie. triangular relationship: Asia countries(raw material/technology/components) => china(assemble/manufacture) =>US(sale & marketing).

China becomes the launching-platform of manufacture products. US import from China is mostly a substitution of US import from other Asia (including Japan and Korea) countries (Graphic Source: The Economic Report To President 2005).

Cos, advanced countries like Japan / Korea / US / European have focus on highest - valued components (e.g. design & manufacturing of semi-conductor, DRAM, LCD screen) and shifted the lowest-end manufacturing / final assemble process to their factories in China.

The name-tag "Made In China" has lost its meaning.

In fact, China's semi-finished products and raw material import have been the driver of economic growth in Asia and Latin America. Thankfully, this process (a) bring a lot of employment opportunity to developing countries, (b) pull developed Asian-countries (eg Japan, Korea) out of recession.

Moreover, US multi-national corp (MNC) have extracted huge benefit in the process. US MNC focus on the most high-value added end -- R&D on one end and Sales & Marketing on the other end -- and cut the largest slice of the profit.

For example, US consumer may be surprised by finding their Compac notebook computer is actually assembled in Shanghai, however, this doesn't change the fact that (a) US consumer enjoy the same notebook computer at lower price that otherwise, (b) the notebook is shipped by
Fedex, (c) most of the profit generated from this purchase actually go to Compac / Fedex and their shareholders.

Another example is : when US consumer buy a pair of hottest Nike shoes for $150 (or buy a pair of less fashionable Nike at $35), the factory in China only receive $1.00 per pair of shoe no matter how much the retail price is, and the $149 (or $34) go to Nike's profit, marketing firm, TV, billboard, Micheal Jordon, Walmart / other shoe-chain stores, employees and shareholders in these companies -- who are mainly US citizens. The same pair of Nike shoes also "export" to countries all over the world under the name-tag of "Made in China" and most of the profit go into Nike shareholders' pocket.

A lot of US MNC have seized the opportunity and transformed themselves into the champion of globalization -- Walmart, Nike, Starbuck, Intel, Apple, Compac, Dell, UPS, Fedex
.... etc.

Of course, there are always winner and loser in every new-mega trend – in this case, low-end manufacturing job loss in US and SE Asia countries have lost out. However, no one can reverse the trend and it is not for the benefit of anybody to do so.

Related Article : 日本與中韓台〝技術戰爭〞開打，優勢能撐幾年？

Ipod Nano launching event

2005-09-09T02:46:00.000+08:00

If only a press conference can be as funny as this one, our lives would be happier - Ipod Nano launching event - a great product with a great presentation, you are not going to miss it. Here are the link:
http://stream.apple.akadns.net/

Watch a clever comedy .....

2005-09-07T16:52:00.000+08:00

After a long exhausted day, reading becomes mission impossible. Watch a clever comedy or drama could be the best way to relax before bed.

After chewing up classic comedy “Yes Minister” & “Yes Prime Minister”, I just finished another almost equally sweetly ironic and witty BBC comedy – “Absolute Power - Welcome to the world of public relations”.

Absolute Power originally debuted on BBC Radio 4 in January 2000. Series One: 5 Jan-9 Feb 2000, Series Two: 30 Jan-6 Mar 2001, Series Three: 1 Jan-29 Jan 2003, Series 4: 5 Feb-26 Feb 2004.

Full of smart dialogues, laugh out loud guaranteed.

Absolute Power

UK, BBC, Sitcom, colour, 2002

Starring: Stephen Fry, John Bird, Zoe Telford

Prentiss and McCabe are an unscrupulous pair who run the blue chip PR agency Prentiss McCabe. Dealing with commercial as well as personal PR, their remit covers everything from political communications to celebrity media relations. Their manipulation skills are tested to the full as they frequently find that their work brings them into conflict with political parties, newspaper editors and celebrities.

A satirical comedy about a world in which style triumphs over substance, tabloids are the new judge and jury and where five minutes of fame is considered a long term career.

Video Clips

WSJ column "The Numbers Guys"

2005-09-07T13:54:00.000+08:00

I enjoy reading WSJ column "The Numbers Guys" a lot. The column examines numbers and statistics in the news, business, politics and health. Some numbers are flat-out wrong, misleading or biased. Others are valid and useful, helping us to make informed decisions.

The column is wrote by Carl Bialik, a former technology reporter for the Online Journal, is a freelance writer living in Brooklyn, N.Y. He has long had an interest in looking at the way numbers are used, and abused, in the news, business and politics. Carl has a degree in mathematics and physics from Yale University.

He published his reading list in WSJ a month ago, I think it is worth to take a look.

Think3 (7-sep-05)

------------------------------------------------------

Carl's Reading List

August 19, 2005 6:56 a.m.

I have enjoyed reading several books recently on the use and misuse of numbers. Joel Best, a University of Delaware sociology professor, has written two books exposing the subtle choices people make when creating statistics, and the big effects these choices can have. Dr. Best followed up "Damned Lies and Statistics" with "More Damned Lies and Statistics." (The titles play off a famous quote attributed to 19th century British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli: "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.")

In "Tainted Truth," Wall Street Journal reporter Cynthia Crossen exposes the interest groups behind sponsored market research, advertising and, more troublingly, academic and scientific studies.

"Innumeracy," by Temple University math professor John Allen Paulos, explains why his title subject -- the equivalent of illiteracy for numbers -- is widespread and dangerous for society. He followed that book with "A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper," a quirky tour of a standard broadsheet that mixes critiques of numerical misuse with other musings.

Jonathan Koomey distills a career's worth of experience as an energy scientist into "Turning Numbers Into Knowledge." Part III is most germane to this column, with tips on assessing others' numbers and graphs -- plus a gem of a two-page chapter reminding readers that "numbers aren't everything."

The Statistical Assessment Service, a non-profit watchdog group, takes a very modern approach. Articles and shorter posts at Stats.org pick apart misuse of numbers by the media, researchers and industry groups.

And the classic in the genre, Darrell Huff's "How to Lie With Statistics," just turned 50 but is still very relevant. Plus, it's a fun read.

上星期又發書瘟,一口氣買了近10本書,唔知幾時才看得完

2005-09-07T02:17:00.000+08:00

書債:

帝國的悲哀 by Chalmers Johnson

New Ideas from Dead Economists by Todp Buchholz 中文版

I Think, Therefore I Laugh by John Allen Paulos

Seeing Voices by Oliver Sacks

Uncle Petros and Goldbach's Conjecture by Apostolos Doxiadis

More What If? Eminent Historians Imagine What Might Have Been edited by Robert Cowley

The Unholy War: The Vatican's Role in the Rise of Modern Anti-semitism by David Kertzer

The Anatomy of Buzz by Emanuel Rosen

An Anatomy of Terror by Andrew Sinclair

Why Smart People Make Big Money Mistakes And How To Correct Them: Lessons From The New Science Of Behavioral Economics

2005-09-03T05:08:00.000+08:00

看了think3介紹的behaviorial finance書,立即想到幾年前看的這本書,一樣無jargon,無公式,只有無數的例子,但就相當便宜,當時我連行為金融學或投資心理學係乜都唔知,可是看這本書就看得津津有味,頗有一開茅塞之感,因為內裡實在有太多過癮的例子,令你保持有追看的衝動,雖然其後閱歷多了,看到了很多例子的出處,但作為一本入門書,這絕對是交足功課有餘.自己其後也看過不少同類書藉,包括cfa的必讀教科書,但心底裡仍然覺得這本最不俗.誠意推薦對這一科目有興趣的人士,又或希望改正自己投資盲點的人.(當然即使筆者我,也常常明知故犯!盲點就是盲點,現實往往就是知易行難)

Big Bang

2005-09-02T03:00:00.000+08:00

這是Simon Singh的第3部作品,前作Fermat's Last Theorem及Code Book,告訴我原來科普書也可以這樣富娛樂性及影像豐富的.相比之下,今次講宇宙大爆炸理論,前車太多,註定難有驚喜.

結果一如所料,所以讀得特別快,內裡提到的現象如red shift或3K幅射都已是耳熟能詳,可是居然能叫我不跳讀,作者把人事穿插得引人入勝,而且條理清晰到不能再清晰,重點不在於介紹大爆炸這種宇宙論,而是把一場關於宇宙有盡無盡的辯論描繪出來,於是會有Einstein如何押錯邊而慨嘆聰明一世,也有科學家邀功奪名的鬥爭,脈絡是一套理論如何由小眾演變成主流,總之奇兵突出,從聽了不知多少遍的理論中扭出了一點新意來,令這本書依舊有可讀之處.若果對big bang不熟的話,可讀性當必更高.

順帶一提,Singh在附註中提到,這將是其最後一本著作,往後希望有其他新搞作,這對於忠實讀者如我,頗有可惜之感.

Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing

2005-09-02T02:41:00.000+08:00

Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing (Hardcover) by Hersh Shefrin

When I worked as Research Assistant under Mr. Edward Kong of EK Investment, I found Edward read a lot of academic journals. I was curious about this and asked him did he find academic research too "theoretical". Edward explained that in investment decision making, knowledge always provide edges. Advance finance research provides new insight on old subject. Although academic research always base on various assumptions that seem unrealistic, however this does not mean we cannot benefit from academic research.

He used efficient market theory as an example. Obviously, the market is not as efficient as the theory suggested, hence, he work backward – If the market is not efficient, what’s wrong with the assumption.

Assumption one of EMT, information is free and equally available, working backward, that’s mean investor with better information can get better results. Assumption two of EMT, given the same information, everyone draws the same conclusion, that means better interpretation and insight on data / event enable investor to earn abnormal results.

In 1996/9, I found Edward spend several days reading a “pillow-like” academic paper. It was research on psychology (yes, psychology, not “psychology on finance” or “behavioral finance”). The book was 1.5 inch thick and full of mathematic formula.

“Well, what the hell! Psychology?” I thought. By that time, I was too busy to learn the basic financial analysis skill. Reading stuff like this was far too advanced for me. But from then on, I have a feeling “psychology” and “finance” have relationship somehow.

At 2000, I found the book: “Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing” by Hersh Shefrin. Priced at $HK439, but after I finished a chapter, I bought it without any hesitation.

The book explain all kind of psychology research findings that are related to “investing”, “gambling” and “risk taking” such as “Prospect Theory”, “Heuristic-Driven Bias”, “Frame Dependence”, “Representative-ness”, “Anchoring” etc.

Shefrin explain all the key concepts in story-telling style. No mathematic formula, no tons of data, just experiments after experiment, examples after examples.

Almost all the findings were based on psychological experiments under controlled environment. In most of the cases, you can test yourselves with those experiments (in your mind) before he show you the result. A really joyful reading experience, I found.

Over the last 25 years of research, psychologists have discovered two important facts. (1) As psychologist Lola Lopes pointed out, the primary emotions that determine risk-taking behaviour are not greed and fear, but HOPE and FEAR. (2) Although to err is human, financial practitioners of all types make the same mistakes repeatedly.

The cause of these errors is documented in an important collection edited by psychologist Daniel Kahneman (who was the winner of 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work in “Prospect Theory”, despite Kahneman claims to have never taken a single economics course) and other researchers.

The “Beyond Greed and Fear: Understanding Behavioral Finance and the Psychology of Investing” provides a painless way to digest the treasures of 25 years of psychology research on human risk-taking behaviour.

Suggestion ...

2005-09-01T04:43:00.000+08:00

Glad to gather a group of friends have similar interest. Blog is really a wonderful tool to exchange ideas. We can just get in touch anywhere and anytime.

I had setup several blogs for news-clipping and article-sharing. My experience is when the articles accumulate to certain amount, I found it more convenience to classified information by having several different blogs. This also make it easier to gather friends have different interests.

I suggest we can utilize the existing blog and develope on it. As blog is just a equal platform, every member can post article and opinion. It won't make a different by who is the host. Indeed, it is almost a mission impossible for host to post everything !

Take a look. See if fit. If it is all right, I can invite everybody to be member or even co-host the blog together (blog can be co-manage by members, just do some clicking in setup page) Anyway, I'll station in Guangzhou from 20 sep, so I may not have enough energy to keep it as active as now.

(1) www.midnightoil-society.blogspot.com is for china politic / international affair
(2) www.think-3.blogspot.com is for investment related stuffs
(3) www.damocles-sword.blogspot.com/ is for journalist related stuffs

All the best !

Think3

可以不只介紹書咁簡單

2005-09-01T04:13:00.000+08:00

It's amazing to find out that everyone is online at 3:00am!謝謝think3的文章,雖然一口氣拋出兩本書的介紹,但也覺得這裡不應只是介紹書,一些好文章或新思潮,也值得在此分享,希望各位盡用這個園地

Buying and selling volatility

2005-09-01T04:02:00.000+08:00

Buying and selling volatility

Author:Kevin B. Connolly

近期窩輪再度成為市場焦點,令我想起一本很久以前看的書,當時剛剛接觸窩輪這新奇事物,可是坊間一直較少淺白易讀的衍生工具書藉，不是叫你一知半解，便是用艱深的數學公式把你包圍，後來碰到這本深入淺出的易「啃」入門書──＜買賣波幅＞，用門外漢都能懂的語言解答發行人如何賺你錢之謎．

買賣波幅與買賣股價不同之處，在於前者需要不時根據正股變化進行對沖「鎖定」利潤或虧損，亦即動態對沖，因此較單純買賣股票遠為複雜，但本書能做到不用艱深數學模型，而能用淺白語言及圖表，讓人掌握這門概念．同時本書能做到不會野心過大，只集中介紹主要概念，故此不會予人有資料過多消化不良之感．對於一向有投資認股証及期權的投資者，不妨一讀以增功力．

美中不足的是，如何決定一隻股份平貴的理論很多，但究竟如何決定波幅平貴及如何尋找入市機會則鮮有書藉提及，此書也少了這一章，令本書只能停留在理論在層次.建議看完這本書後,可挑戰john hull的Options, Futures and Other Derivatives<--絕對好勁!

The End of Oil

2005-09-01T03:33:00.000+08:00

趁住油價新高,中石油批股,不如介紹一本講石油的書.過去因為讀過Daniel Yergin的Prize,所以一直不敢開這本書,擔心又係講石油史,近排有了興頭,翻看一下,居然不賴.作者好似係英國記者,採訪了石油業多年,故此例必有很多訪問及親身經驗.本書涉獵很廣,由hydrogen fuel cell到kyoto protocol到中國如何應對能源危機都包羅,若Prize是以歷史來推進的話,則the end of oil可說是石油業的橫切面,算不上深入,常看economist的可以跳讀,但總算做到不長氣,點到即止,但條理分明,不賣弄文筆.

對於石油的將來,作者是悲觀的,因為美國愛油若癡,而中國又極度飢渴,新能源的開發及投資又似乎步履蹣跚,似乎要一鑊很杰的危機,才能令大家的起心肝,這或許是一場大戰爭.ok, we'll see

RAND : Chinese Political Negotiating Behavior, 1967-1984

2005-09-01T03:22:00.000+08:00

The Linear Process of PRC Political Negotiations

How to negotiate with China Gov't ? How to read China's behaviour in international affairs ? How do China shape HK political landscape ? How China play on Taiwan politic ? How do Central Govt HK Liason Office "handle" HK political parties & media ?

Learn from the painful lesson of US govt from 1967-1984. "Chinese Political Negotiating Behavior, 1967-1984" is a must read for anyone who have to face China govt, no matter you are politican, journalist, businessman, analyst or fund-manager. Indeed this booklet had been the handbook of former HK Governor Chris Patten -- the last governor who pushed China Gov't to her limit. I have been shocked by how the analysis present in this little booklet still valid today.

In the mid-1980s, US thinktank - RAND (www.rand.org) contracted with the U.S. government to do a retrospective analysis of the official negotiations between the United States and the People's Republic of China (PRC) associated with the normalization of relations between the two countries. The study was in the tradition of earlier RAND research-- especially Fred C. Iklé's pathbreaking work of 1964[1]--and was designed to assess the way Chinese negotiators sought to manage the process of constructing a normal relationship with the United States. Such a study, it was assumed, would also provide a useful contrast with the "adversarial negotiations" that had characterized dealings between the two governments in the period between the Korean War years and the unproductive negotiations of the 1950s and 1960s at Geneva and Warsaw.

The principal investigator of the study, Richard H. Solomon, served as a staff member of the National Security Council during the initial years of normalization talks between the United States and the PRC and was already familiar with much of the negotiating record. Because the study drew on official negotiating documentation, the initial publication of the work was classified Secret, although an unclassified briefing summary was published by RAND in 1985.[2]

In 1994, a federal court action led to declassification of most of the 1985 study, based on a Freedom of Information Act suit that had been filed against the government by the Los Angeles Times. [thank to freedom of information !!!]

RAND is publishing the declassified parts of the study at this time because of the analytical and historical value of the work, and because of the continuing interest to the United States of managing effectively a relationship with a major country that is likely to be of even greater significance in world affairs in the coming century. The reader should be aware that about 10 percent of the original study was not declassified. The deletion of this material from the present publication, however, has not affected the presentation of the author's analysis or the flow of the material.

The book can be ordered on internet at RAND, alternatively, I have a copy for friends.

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Following are summary of the small handbook :

By Richard H. Solomon

Summary

This study of Chinese political negotiating behavior assesses patterns and practices in the ways officials of the People's Republic of China (PRC) managed high-level political negotiations with the United States during the "normalization" phase of relations between the two countries. It is designed to provide guidance for senior American officials prior to their first negotiating encounters with PRC counterparts and to establish control over the documentary record of U.S.-PRC political exchanges between 1967 and 1984.

This assessment is based on analysis of the official negotiating record of U.S.-PRC exchanges during this period (the memoranda of conversation--"memcons"--and reporting cables that document formal exchanges), interviews with more than thirty U.S. officials who have conducted political negotiations with the Chinese, and such additional materials as the memoirs of former senior U.S. government officials, Chinese press statements, and official PRC documentation.

The basic finding of this study is that Chinese officials conduct negotiations in a distinctive, but not unique, manner consisting of a highly organized and meticulously managed progression of well-defined stages. It is an approach influenced by both Western diplomatic practice and the Marxist-Leninist tradition acquired from the Soviet Union and through dealings with the international communist movement. Its fundamental style and most distinctive qualities, however, are based on China's own cultural tradition and political practices.

The most distinctive characteristic of Chinese negotiating behavior is the effort to develop and manipulate strong interpersonal relationships with foreign officials--a pattern termed here "the games of guanxi," or relationship games. This approach to politics is shaped by China's Confucian political tradition. The Chinese distrust impersonal or legalistic negotiations. Thus, in managing a negotiation they attempt to identify a sympathetic counterpart official in a foreign government and work to cultivate a personal relationship, a sense of "friendship" (you-yi) and obligation; they then attempt to manipulate feelings of good will, obligation, guilt, or dependence to achieve their negotiating objectives. The frequently used term "friendship" implies to the Chinese a strong sense of obligation for the "old friend" to provide support and assistance to China.

The Negotiating Process

American officials have characterized negotiations with the PRC as a linear process of sequential and relatively discrete stages which unfold as the two sides explore issues of common concern. This process is illustrated in the following table:

Opening Moves

PRC officials make a determined effort at the outset of a negotiation to establish a sympathetic counterpart official as an interlocutor, to cultivate a personal relationship (friendship) with him; they press for the acceptance of their principles as the basis of the relationship. They also seek to structure a negotiating agenda favorable to their objectives.

The Chinese view a political negotiation as reconciling the principles and objectives of the two sides and testing the other government's commitment to a relationship with the PRC. They do not see it as a highly technical process of haggling over details, in which the two sides initially table maximum positions and then move to a point of convergence through incremental compromises.

To establish a framework for a relationship, PRC officials will press their counterparts at the outset of a negotiation to accept certain general "principles" (such as those embodied in the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972). Such political ground rules are then used to constrain the interlocutor's bargaining flexibility as the negotiation proceeds and to test the sincerity of his desire to develop and sustain a relationship with China. Experience shows, however, that when a PRC negotiator wants to reach an accord, he can set aside the emphasis on principles and reach a concrete agreement that may appear to have little relationship to the principles that were seemingly essential early in the negotiation.

Period of Assessment

Chinese officials are skilled in protracting a negotiation to explore the limits of their adversary's views, flexibility, and patience. They will resist exposing their own position until their counterparts' stand is fully known and their endurance has been well tested.

Facilitating maneuvers. The Chinese try to conduct negotiations on their own territory, as this gives them maximum control over the ambience of official exchanges. They seek to establish a positive mood through meticulous orchestration of hospitality (cuisine, sightseeing, etc.), media play, banquet toasts, and protocol. They may attempt to minimize confrontation or differences of view through subtle and indirect presentation of their positions. They may communicate difficult messages through trusted intermediaries. And when they seek to avoid the breakdown of a negotiation, they may resort to stalling tactics or reach a partial agreement while reserving their own position on important issues on which they do not wish to compromise.

Pressure tactics.

PRC officials will resort to a variety of tactics to put an interlocutor on the defensive and make him feel he has minimal control over the negotiating process. They are skilled at making a foreign counterpart appear to be the supplicant or demandeur in the relationship. They play political adversaries against each other and may alternate hard and accommodating moods by shifting from "bad guy" to "good guy" officials. They may urge a foreign negotiator to accommodate to their position using the argument that if he does not, his "friends" in the PRC leadership will be weakened by failure to reach agreement. And they tend to put pressure on a sympathetic counterpart negotiator on the assumption that a "friend" will make a special effort to repair problems in the relationship.

The Chinese often present themselves as the injured party, seeking to shame an interlocutor with recitation of faults on the part of his government or his failure to live up to past agreements or to the "spirit" of mutually accepted principles. They are meticulous record-keepers and will hold a negotiator responsible for his past words and the commitments of his predecessors. They are skilled at using the press to create public pressures on a foreign negotiating team. And they may seek to trap a negotiator against a time deadline (so that he must make decisions under pressure).

The essential quality of Chinese pressure tactics is to make the foreign negotiator, with whom they have gone to some lengths to develop a personal, or "friendly," association, feel that his positive relationship with China is in jeopardy, that he has not done enough to warrant being considered an "old friend," and that he must do more for the relationship to justify Chinese support and good will. It is this tension of the relationship game that gives dealings with the Chinese much of their distinctive quality.

End Game

When PRC officials believe that they have tested the limits of their negotiating counterparts' position and that a formal understanding serves their interests, they can move rapidly to conclude an agreement.

They may let a negotiation appear to deadlock to test their interlocutor's patience and firmness, then have a senior leader intervene to cut the knot of the apparent deadlock. Agreements are usually reached at the very last moment of a negotiating encounter--or even just after a deadline has passed. Once Chinese leaders have decided to reach an agreement, their negotiators can be quite flexible in working out concrete arrangements.

Implementation

Chinese officials assess the manner in which a counterpart government implements an agreement as a sign of how seriously or sincerely that government views its relationship with the PRC. They press for strict implementation of all understandings and they are quick to find fault.

At the same time, Chinese officials sometimes give the impression that agreements are never quite final. They will seek modifications of understandings when it serves their purposes; and the conclusion of an agreement is the occasion for pressing the counterpart government for new concessions. If they are unable to fully implement an agreement themselves, however, they will ask the counterpart to "understand" their difficulties on the basis of friendship, or they will make excuses that put the burden of responsibility on the other party.

Discussion

Reflecting the workings of the relationship game, American negotiators describe their dealings with the Chinese as at once elating and frustrating. PRC officials can establish a positive mood when they want to build a constructive relationship; and they impress their U.S. counterparts as personally attractive, highly competent individuals with whom it is easy to deal at a human level. On the other hand, Chinese officials--who consider themselves the representatives of a once and future great power-- can adopt a self-righteous and lecturing air, presuming the right to criticize their "friends" (while being highly defensive of their own positions) and requiring that negotiations be conducted on their own terms.

The experience of countries that have established highly interdependent relations with the PRC has demonstrated that the Chinese can be highly demanding and manipulative of those on whom they have established a dependent relationship (as was the case with the "elder brother" Soviet Union in the 1950s), or self- righteously assertive in dealing with those who have established a subordinate relationship with them (as was the case with Albania in the 1960s).

Guidelines for Dealing with PRC Counterparts

This analysis suggests the following "lessons learned" that U.S. officials should keep in mind if they are to be more effective in dealing with PRC counterparts:

(1) Know the substantive issues cold. Chinese officials are meticulous in preparing for negotiating sessions, and their staffs are very effective in briefing them on technical issues. They will use any indication of sloppy preparation against an interlocutor.

Master the past negotiating record. PRC officials have full control over the prior negotiating record, and they do not hesitate to use it to pressure a counterpart.

(2) Know you bottomline. A clear sense of the objectives of a negotiation will enable a U.S. official to avoid being trapped in commitments to general principles and to resist Chinese efforts to drag out a negotiation. Incremental compromises suggest to the Chinese that their interlocutor's final position has not yet been reached.

(3) Present your position in a broad framework. The Chinese seem to find it easier to compromise on specific issues if they have a sense of the broader purposes of their interlocutor in developing a relationship with the PRC. They distrust quick deals, and they appreciate presentations that suggest seriousness of purpose and an interest in maintaining a long-term relationship with China.

(4) Be patient. Do not expect quick or easy agreement. A Chinese negotiator will have trouble convincing his superiors that he has fully tested the limits of his counterpart's position if he has not protracted the discussions. Assume you will be subjected to unexplained delays and various forms of pressure to test your resolve.

(5) Avoid time deadlines. Resist negotiating in circumstances where you must have agreement by a certain date. The Chinese will assume that your urgency to conclude a deal can be played to their advantage.

(6) Minimize media pressures. PRC negotiators use public expectations about a negotiation to pressure their interlocutors. Confidential handling of negotiating exchanges, the disciplining of leaks, and the minimizing of press exposure are taken by the Chinese as signs of seriousness of purpose. Negotiation via the press will evoke a sharp Chinese response.

(7) Understand the PRC political context and the style of your Chinese interlocutor. Despite the difficulties of assessing the domestic PRC political scene, an evaluation of internal factional pressures and the style of your counterparts will help in understanding Chinese objectives and the limits of their negotiating flexibility, as well as in reading the signals or loaded language of a very different culture and political system.

(8) Understand the Chinese meaning of friendship. Know that the Chinese expect a lot of their "friends." Resist the flattery of being an "old friend" or the sentimentality that Chinese hospitality readily evokes. Do not promise more than you can deliver, but expect that you will be pressured to honor past commitments. Resist Chinese efforts to shame or play on guilt feelings for presumed errors or shortcomings.

(9) Develop a strategic orientation to dealing with the Chinese. The blandishments of the friendship game and Chinese pressure tactics are most effectively defended against by developing a strategic orientation suited to American negotiating practices and objectives. An attitude of restrained openness and interest in identifying and working to attain common objectives is the best protection against Chinese efforts to maneuver the foreign negotiator into the position of demandeur or supplicant.

(10) Parry Chinese pressure tactics in order to maintain control over the negotiating process. Chinese negotiating tactics are readily understandable and, in some measure, even predictable. Therefore, U.S. negotiators should develop countertactics that will parry PRC maneuvers and will demonstrate competence and control over the negotiating process. Tactical manipulations applied in excess or for their own sake, however, are likely to erode confidence and undermine the credibility of a negotiation.

[1]Fred Charles Iklé, How Nations Negotiate, New York: Harper and Row, 1964.
[2]Richard H. Solomon, Chinese Political Negotiating Behavior: A Briefing Analysis, R-3295, Santa Monica: RAND, 1985.

用作測試的張貼

2005-09-01T03:13:00.000+08:00

我離開經濟日報待業的兩個月期間,讀了一些書,回想起中五、中六(十多年前了!)時曾跟一些朋友組成了讀書組,分享和討論讀書心得,是一段快樂的經驗,所以興起找來志同道合的朋友再組讀書組的念頭。阿Mike、阿Ben、Daisy、Howard、球叔等都有興趣參與,可惜兩次嘗試聚會都因無法齊人而告吹。現在借助Blog的便利,希望各位廣邀好友加入。

《經濟學》斯蒂格利茨(Joseph E. Stiglitz)著中國人民大學出版社簡體字翻譯版

這是一套經濟學入門的教科書, 內容條理分明(教科書的優點),翻譯水準也罕有地好。除了解說理論,書中也引用了不少真實例子(較多偏重美國經驗;版本關係,例子主要來自九十年代,但新版本香港的書店已經有售,例子更新),分析公共財政、競爭和就業等政策,對從事財經新聞工作的,頗有參考甚至引述以增加文章趣味的價值。對於財經記者而言,我想這是一套不俗的案頭參考書。

開卷有益開幕了

2005-08-31T02:51:00.000+08:00

經阿權的催促,星夜趕製了這個blog,作為日後交流讀書心得之用.希望這裡人氣能keep住興旺,聚集到一班志同道合之士,也可作為日後溝通甚至聚會的聯絡點.

還有一點要提, 開卷有益的欄名,也是小弟胡亂杜撰,如有其他建議,歡迎提出.

另外,也有想過,在這裡交流是否用真名,由於暫時仍是小圈子性質,故此不作避忌,相信問題也不大吧.

仍在學習這個blog的運作,剛發出了邀請,還未知你們能否自行post話題,抑或下下要我自己post,請把運作的技術問題告訴我,謝謝